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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I don't think Tesla will reveal the Y soon. That would likely detract people from buying the 3. The Y will likely be a very very cool car.

There's no reason for them to announce the Y until the backlog for the 3 is resolved.

Maybe, but if you are to believe their 2019 production timeline and you use the Model 3 reveal where you could first place a deposit, it was about 15 months before the initial production started, from the end of Mar through end of June of the next year. Assuming Tesla wants to deliver the first car no later then Dec of 2019, that would mean the reveal would be Sept of this year? I guess they could keep the raps on the vehicle much longer and one day in 2019, just say we are now producing these vehicles on the model 3 line and you can order today. My guess is that they will want the deposit money as a free loan and that the deposit amount for the Y will be higher then the 3 to flush out less serious buyers and keep people focused on the model 3.
 
Tesla Powers Up New York Gigafactory Solar Roof Assembly Line

Tesla Inc. has kicked off production of its long-awaited electricity-producing shingles that Elon Musk says will transform the rooftop solar industry.


Manufacturing of the textured-glass tiles began last month at Tesla’s Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo, New York, according to an emailed statement from the Palo Alto, California-based company on Tuesday

.. looking for reasons SP shot up yesterday, this might be it ...

Agree, this sounds like the best reason for the run up so far!
 
I don't think Tesla will reveal the Y soon. That would likely detract people from buying the 3. The Y will likely be a very very cool car.

There's no reason for them to announce the Y until the backlog for the 3 is resolved.

Nah, they're not gonna have any problems selling the 3 for at least 3 years and clearing the current backlog will probably take them about 1-1.5 years, so they shouldn't worry about Y slowing down anything.
 
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Maybe, but if you are to believe their 2019 production timeline and you use the Model 3 reveal where you could first place a deposit, it was about 15 months before the initial production started, from the end of Mar through end of June of the next year. Assuming Tesla wants to deliver the first car no later then Dec of 2019, that would mean the reveal would be Sept of this year? I guess they could keep the raps on the vehicle much longer and one day in 2019, just say we are now producing these vehicles on the model 3 line and you can order today. My guess is that they will want the deposit money as a free loan and that the deposit amount for the Y will be higher then the 3 to flush out less serious buyers and keep people focused on the model 3.
I think the most likely scenario is If they need cash in 2H'18 to finance additional GFs, then I see Tesla announce MY > 1 year before production like M3, in order to get some deposits. But if they think they have enough cash from M3, Roadster/Semi pre-order, then Tesla can afford to keep MY under wraps for much longer, as long as there are no credible competition that could beat them to market at high volume and take away potential customers.
 
I'm cancelling my Model 3, and there seems to be a steady stream of people cancelling in Norway. At six months they can't refund money to the credit card used, so they sent out out an email with instructions on what info they needed. Unfortunately, the Tesla sales person was a bit sloppy and included the entire mailing list. So, I could see that there were 46 other recipients.

I don't know for what time period that is, I cancelled in the weekend, so maybe weekly? That would work out to a cancellation rate of around 200 per month in Norway alone.

Just a tidbit of information I stumbled upon. ;)
 
I'm cancelling my Model 3, and there seems to be a steady stream of people cancelling in Norway. At six months they can't refund money to the credit card used, so they sent out out an email with instructions on what info they needed. Unfortunately, the Tesla sales person was a bit sloppy and included the entire mailing list. So, I could see that there were 46 other recipients.

I don't know for what time period that is, I cancelled in the weekend, so maybe weekly? That would work out to a cancellation rate of around 200 per month in Norway alone.

Just a tidbit of information I stumbled upon. ;)
May I ask why you have decided to cancel?
 
I'm cancelling my Model 3, and there seems to be a steady stream of people cancelling in Norway. At six months they can't refund money to the credit card used, so they sent out out an email with instructions on what info they needed. Unfortunately, the Tesla sales person was a bit sloppy and included the entire mailing list. So, I could see that there were 46 other recipients.

I don't know for what time period that is, I cancelled in the weekend, so maybe weekly? That would work out to a cancellation rate of around 200 per month in Norway alone.

Just a tidbit of information I stumbled upon. ;)

Any specific reason for the group as a whole?
 
May I ask why you have decided to cancel?
I finally concluded that I won't have a need for it. I reserved the Model 3 before I knew I'd be able to find the money for a Model X (Thanks TSLA!), and I was toying with the idea of using it for commuting, if we had moved house by the time it would be available. I was also toying with the idea of flipping it for profit. But it seems like I won't have a need for it, and I don't think there will be much profit to be had relative to hassle.
 
I finally concluded that I won't have a need for it. I reserved the Model 3 before I knew I'd be able to find the money for a Model X (Thanks TSLA!), and I was toying with the idea of using it for commuting, if we had moved house by the time it would be available. I was also toying with the idea of flipping it for profit. But it seems like I won't have a need for it, and I don't think there will be much profit to be had relative to hassle.
Thanks for the response. I was just worried that it's due to some negative reviews you've read online or something. I'm pretty sure a lot of the cancellations have to be people wanting to flip for profit but decided it's not worth the hassle.
 
I finally concluded that I won't have a need for it. I reserved the Model 3 before I knew I'd be able to find the money for a Model X (Thanks TSLA!), and I was toying with the idea of using it for commuting, if we had moved house by the time it would be available. I was also toying with the idea of flipping it for profit. But it seems like I won't have a need for it, and I don't think there will be much profit to be had relative to hassle.

yeah that sounds just like what happened to all those norwegians you mentioned. They all bought Model X :))))
 
Any specific reason for the group as a whole?
None that I know for sure. I would think some are cancelling because there's still no news about towing. Some may also have cancelled because of the production issues (longer wait). Also, I'm sure that the fact that there are other BEVs with 40-65 kWh coming out is having some impact.

Sedans are quite unpopular in Norway, and if you go for a Leaf gen 2, Kia Niro or Hyundai Kona you get a proper hatch.
 
I found this in the Internet Wayback machine - its amazing what happens when you put the day to 50 years in the future!

TESLA 2040. Dateline Reno. Jan 5, 2040 [Press release: embargo'd to 1200 GMT 05 Jan]

Tesla hopes the Fremont plant, devastated by the Hayward Earthquake of 2021 will soon be rebuilt. New California construction rules ran afoul of the state environmental and cap and trade rules and the state government has tried for the last 19 years to reconcile the two. Bay area population is down to 27,000 since no one can repair property damaged during the 7.8 temblor. The fear is the glues used in that much plywood could damage the air and possibly lead to poisoning of termites and other native California insects. Thus, it is unknown how or when there will be sufficient population to provide trained workers - while the satellite plant in Nevada continues in operation.

Tesla announced today the expansion of the Model 3 lineup to include actual production cars. The production hell announced by President Elon Musk in 2017 has continued unbated since 2017. Tesla today delivered the last reserved Model 3 to customer holding reservation 264,553, and finally Model 3's are now being built for inventory. Owner Sparky Devine said: " I was 43 when I ordered the car and they said it was 'Early December' delivery. I just didn't think they meant December 2039, Now that I'm retired, I can't really afford the car any longer - but I figured I had to take delivery!" Sparky admitted he hasn't been a fan boy since 2025, but had to cut them a break since "it was a new model after all."

President Musk decided that after taking over of most Africa and Asia, and merging with Amazon in 2025, Tesla was now paused to dominate the Electric vehicle industry. And "anyone who disagrees will have their vehicles permanently disabled," said the Fearless Leader during remarks to the California legislature.

A group of Model X2 owners protested at the Reno plant when it became clear that the roofs of their vehicles were not adhered at the front. At speeds above 10mph, the blast caused cold, wind, rain snow and even birds to enter the cabin. Tesla announced it was minor problem, not caught at the factory, and could have been resolved at local factory service centers. The owners retorted that parts were on back order, expected sometime in 2044. In keeping with the organic, anti-GMO and vegan intensive heritage of the company, Tesla offered to place cats into the cabin to catch the birds which enter. "That makes no sense," said Gordon T Gekko, organizer of the Rally. Leader Elon noted: "we turned off his supercharging rights. The guy lives in Texas. Have fun getting home chucklehead."

The Tesla Roadster initially detailed for release in 2021, has begun limited production at the Nunavut plant. The test editions were marred with problems of spin outs in the ice, and the cold limited battery range to only 34 miles 'but thats 50 km!" as the engineers noted. "You know how it was - we were only a year behind schedule when we the lost the plant, tooling and the employees in the earthquake. Dear Leader Elon was on a trip looking for Inuit leathers hunted in native style when he decided that this was the perfect spot to put the plant. Took a decade to get a plant built out here, and then the road was only open for 4 months a year, limited how many batteries we could get up here. And its only above freezing about 300hours a year - so testing suffered. But the natively hunted polar bear seats are truly special."

Most of the Tesla Semi production has been sold to the original and subsequent customers. There never was a plan to have inventory of Tesla Semi's available for sale to the public. Tesla has always said that the reconfiguration of many of the semi's with a pick up bed has never been authorized by the company. Dear Leader recently announced: "We at Tesla are an advanced technology motor and tax subsidy generation company. We are not about to have pigs and chickens and fertilizer transported in our vehicles like we are some tractor company that decided to make crummy trucks. Only Tesla people can drive Tesla vehicles. Thus, when we discover someone operating a vehicle outside our generally accepted guidelines, we shut them off."

In related Semi news, Tesla was sued by UPS and the Norwegian postal service after Tesla refused to update their vehicles to the spectacular "Heavy Launch" software, which more than doubles battery life. The Norwegian postal service suspended their contract after receiving only 10 vehicles in 15 years, after ordering more than 300 to replace every carbon emitting postal truck in the entire country. The Norwegians complained that the vehicles would start out the day with 300 miles of range and would routinely run out of battery power by end the 50 miles average route -and need to be towed back to the charging station. Fearless Leader was heard to say: "What do they expect, its cold up there in Norwegian land. I can't change physics. They keep the doors open to deliver the mail and the car needs to keep the interior warm for the electronics." UPS was shut off after a dispute with Amazon over rates for delivery of packages, trailers and other Amazon materials. Amazon decided to switch to drones, robots and illegal aliens after realizing UPS actually hired humans and paid them a fair wage with benefits. Amazon has since suspended same and next day service after experiencing 'delivery hell' shortly after being acquired by Tesla and they fired all employees before making certain the robots worked. President Musk said: "If you're gonna get Tesla service and updates, you can't bad mouth the company. Suing us definitely does not put me in my happy place."

The Robot Workers Union announced it would go on a work rules slowdown beginning January 10. They have no idea what that means. But they saw it on a 20/20 replay from YouTube at their last meeting. They do insist, however, that the production line robots be allowed 20 milliseconds of rest for every 1400 milliseconds worked. They need the time to listen to the Alan Parsons album "I, Robot" and to recreate themselves. Rest is important to all machines.

There was no resolution of the Tesla roof tiles bankruptcy filing this year. The power walls and the power generating roof tiles were a brilliant idea marred only by naysayers who actually expected the company to deliver a working product. Africa and Asia, subsidiaries of Tesla Planet, Inc., would have benefited the most for these products since most of the countrysides on continents is not wired for electricity. The only problem is that they are completely unable to pay for the products. "We didn't anticipate that there would not be tax subsidies to install these products, or that the people living in these countries had almost no income and paid no taxes, making subsidies less effective than they are in the West."

President Musk has announced the State of the Union, and the annual Company address, will be held 20 January 2041, right after his inauguration at 3pm. All 347 employees and the entire robot workforce are required to attend.
 
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Not a clue. The other apparent change with Tesla is the smaller performance differences between battery sizes than previous. X75D basically same as X100D for example. So, bigger battery is much more of a nice to have than a necessity. I however was planning to get a fully Spec'd LR model 3 before getting our X.

I don't believe there is a smaller performance difference between battery sizes. More KWh, more batteries, higher maximum current, faster possible performance. The small performance gap from X75D to X100D is due to Tesla wanting to maximize the performance gain going to the far more expensive P100D. This is just good business to maximize profit from those willing to pay much extra to have the fastest X.
P100D has 762 hp vs 518 for P75D. But without the extra 25 Kwh of cells a P75D wouldn't be as quick to 60 even if it had the 762 hp.
Tesla is current limiting the 75D so it's performance is not in the mid to high 3 second range.
 
It's obviously very early yet, and hard to tell, but VIN data from this site: Model 3 VINs suggests that Tesla is tracking along Adam Jonas' extremely conservative projected 2018 Model 3 ramp. In no way shape or form does it appear from the first week or so in January that Tesla is producing 1,000 M3 per week. Is there any other VIN data suggesting higher production numbers at this point? I made some spreadsheets based upon quarterly 2018 Model 3 production projections from Adam Jonas and Gene Munster. The weekly production numbers are total guesstimates to fit the quarterly data, but the quarterly data is according to their estimates.

Google Sheets - create and edit spreadsheets online, for free.
Google Sheets - create and edit spreadsheets online, for free.

If this continues, it might be prudent to expect another dip in the near future as the market bids up the stock price on anticipation of improved production numbers.
 
I don't think Tesla will reveal the Y soon. That would likely detract people from buying the 3. The Y will likely be a very very cool car.

There's no reason for them to announce the Y until the backlog for the 3 is resolved.

Sure there is. Continuing to ramp the company's momentum and ability to finance all the gigafactories that must be built.
I doubt they'll reveal the Y until 2018Q4 or 2019Q1, even though they'll be ready earlier. Enough quarters so that 10k/wk has been reached or is close. It would make much sense for them to design the next gen production line to be able to crank out M3 or MY as demand warrants. Then it doesn't matter at all what the demand mix will be, production constraint will be for total of either, not one constrain for each.
 
Agree, this sounds like the best reason for the run up so far!

Tesla Powers Up New York Gigafactory Solar Roof Assembly Line

We'll never know for certain, but I think this news is very unlikely to have much to do with the run up. Wall Street is focused on
Model 3 ramp schedule and when that will very positively effect Tesla financials. The announcement that GF2 is finally producing something doesn't include any detailed projections of how fast or slow the ramp up of PV panels and roof tiles are expected to be.
Therefore no way to know how long it will be before large scale revenue from sale of these will lift the boat.
 
It's obviously very early yet, and hard to tell, but VIN data from this site: Model 3 VINs suggests that Tesla is tracking along Adam Jonas' extremely conservative projected 2018 Model 3 ramp. In no way shape or form does it appear from the first week or so in January that Tesla is producing 1,000 M3 per week. Is there any other VIN data suggesting higher production numbers at this point? I made some spreadsheets based upon quarterly 2018 Model 3 production projections from Adam Jonas and Gene Munster. The weekly production numbers are total guesstimates to fit the quarterly data, but the quarterly data is according to their estimates.

Google Sheets - create and edit spreadsheets online, for free.
Google Sheets - create and edit spreadsheets online, for free.

If this continues, it might be prudent to expect another dip in the near future as the market bids up the stock price on anticipation of improved production numbers.

The Tesla daily podcast guy made a good case on how to think about the ramp. When model X was ramping, Tesla would announce exit rates for each quarter. The average production for the quarter would be about 20-30% below what would be implied by the flat production rate at the beginning of the quarter. This is because the line will be stopped a good amount of time during the quarter for fixing stuff.

In this quarter, I'd be happy with about 12k production and 10k deliveries. That would be roughly what the flat exit rate at the end of Q4 implies assuming Jan first week off. The holiday makes lack of Vin movement not very insightful.
 
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