General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[sub]

I don't believe there is a smaller performance difference between battery sizes. More KWh, more batteries, higher maximum current, faster possible performance. The small performance gap from X75D to X100D is due to Tesla wanting to maximize the performance gain going to the far more expensive P100D. This is just good business to maximize profit from those willing to pay much extra to have the fastest X.
P100D has 762 hp vs 518 for P75D. But without the extra 25 Kwh of cells a P75D wouldn't be as quick to 60 even if it had the 762 hp.
Tesla is current limiting the 75D so it's performance is not in the mid to high 3 second range.

.

I was referring to what is, not what could be or what is being limited. Most buyers have no idea about specs other than what Tesla lists on the website. The current stated difference beteeen X75D and X100D is ~.02 seconds.

 

[larmor]

We'll never know for certain, but I think this news is very unlikely to have much to do with the run up. Wall Street is focused on
Model 3 ramp schedule and when that will very positively effect Tesla financials. The announcement that GF2 is finally producing something doesn't include any detailed projections of how fast or slow the ramp up of PV panels and roof tiles are expected to be.
Therefore no way to know how long it will be before large scale revenue from sale of these will lift the boat.

The market does not value PV highly mainly due to prior PV companies that have not done well. When a company can figure out how to make $ from PV then this will be seen as a plus- I presume Tesla roof tiles will engage the new home builders directly..

 

[bdy0627]

The Tesla daily podcast guy made a good case on how to think about the ramp. When model X was ramping, Tesla would announce exit rates for each quarter. The average production for the quarter would be about 20-30% below what would be implied by the flat production rate at the beginning of the quarter. This is because the line will be stopped a good amount of time during the quarter for fixing stuff.

In this quarter, I'd be happy with about 12k production and 10k deliveries. That would be roughly what the flat exit rate at the end of Q4 implies assuming Jan first week off. The holiday makes lack of Vin movement not very insightful.

Thanks! I didn't know that, and Jonas' numbers really make sense with that approach. He projects an average rate of about 620/week for Q1. That jives very well with the approach that you describe. I was expecting a higher average weekly production rate in Q1, so this is really helpful for me. Munster projects an average rate of about 1,100/week for Q1. Jonas is generally very conservative, often overly so. He's been pretty accurate about the ramp so far. I think Munster is more realistic. In this case, my guess is Tesla is headed for a beat on Jonas' projection. They might beat Munster's projection but I doubt it. All things considered, it sounds like we should probably expect them to be around 700 - 900 average weekly rate for the quarter.

 

[generalenthu]

Thanks! I didn't know that, and Jonas' numbers really make sense with that approach. He projects an average rate of about 620/week for Q1. That jives very well with the approach that you describe. I was expecting a higher average weekly production rate in Q1, so this is really helpful for me. Munster projects an average rate of about 1,100/week for Q1. Jonas is generally very conservative, often overly so. He's been pretty accurate about the ramp so far. I think Munster is more realistic. In this case, my guess is Tesla is headed for a beat on Jonas' projection. They might beat Munster's projection but I doubt it. All things considered, it sounds like we should probably expect them to be around 700 - 900 average weekly rate for the quarter.

This is the episode I was referring to.

01.05.18 – Q1 Delivery & Production Estimates - Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis

 

[bdy0627]

This is the episode I was referring to.

01.05.18 – Q1 Delivery & Production Estimates - Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis

Thanks! I'll check that out.

 

[Zaxxon]

I got to spend some time with a Model 3 today, including about 10 minutes behind the wheel.

I will not be selling my shares anytime soon.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Jonas is generally very conservative, often overly so. He's been pretty accurate about the ramp so far.

Jonas thought in August that Tesla could deliver 10K in Q4'17. Then he cut that down by 10X to 1K after finding out the Q3 delivery #. I don't think he knows any more than you and I. But I agree with your conclusion that Tesla will likely beat Jonas's latest predictions.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Jonas thought in August that Tesla could deliver 10K in Q4'17. Then he cut that down by 10X to 1K after finding out the Q3 delivery #. I don't think he knows any more than you and I. But I agree with your conclusion that Tesla will likely beat Jonas's latest predictions.

By doing this Jonas can under promise and over deliver. Kind of smart as a bullish analyst if you ask me. Tesla delivered 2x our projection: buy the dip.

 

[schonelucht]

It's obviously very early yet, and hard to tell, but VIN data from this site: Model 3 VINs suggests that Tesla is tracking along Adam Jonas' extremely conservative projected 2018 Model 3 ramp. In no way shape or form does it appear from the first week or so in January that Tesla is producing 1,000 M3 per week.

Just to quantify this a bit. The first 2000+ VIN was assigned Dec 5th. Ten days later the first 2500+ and 9 days later again the first 3000+. Then suddenly the first 3500+ 2 days later, but there has been no 4000+ assignment so far (14 days later).

The first three data points suggest a natural progression of 500 per 10 days with the single 2 day interval in a mad end-of-year dash to push out as much as possible. Assuming that's an outlier and Tesla is still at their halfway December rate then we should see the first 4000+ VIN assignments over the weekend. That would indicate a current run rate of 500 per 10 day interval or 350/week. Anything substantially later than that and it could indicate the line was on a hold for a while (could be trouble or could be scheduled holiday). Best case, should 4000+ VIN allocation happen today, that could indicate a slightly faster rate of around 500 in 8-9 days (400/week).

I can't stress enough this is based on limited data (103 samples). There are many reasons I can think of why VIN assignment could seem to drop off but production is still going full tilt. For example, Tesla starts to deliver to other states and must full the pipeline first. In short : do not take this post for gospel, do your own research and share it here as much as possible.

For those trying to read the tealeaves, I am looking for a new batch of invites to order going out tomorrow and a fresh registration of VINs with the NTSHA. Regarding the latter, Tesla registered around 3500 VINS two weeks ago. If we're going with 350/week we wouldn't expect them to need another registration round for another 2 months. Seeing that happen in January may indicate a step change in production rate. Again, every single point of evidence is just an indication and no proof either way!

 

[Sean Wagner]

The market does not value PV highly mainly due to prior PV companies that have not done well. When a company can figure out how to make $ from PV then this will be seen as a plus- I presume Tesla roof tiles will engage the new home builders directly..

I'm going to throw in some comparative data from the cost side, courtesy of Lazard's yearly "Insights":

Levelized Cost of Energy 2017

Have a look at utility scale and rooftop residential PV costs. If the aim is to accelerate renewables, it's no contest.

 

[aubreymcfato]

TE behemoth is moving, guys. Really hope it starts running asap.
Tesla, Neoen Deal Would Outdo Record-Breaking Battery Down Under | Bloomberg New Energy Finance
South Australia FTW.

 

[avoigt]

Groundbreaking achievement: 2018 Kia Soul EV gets bigger battery, range boost from 93 to 111 miles http://dlvr.it/Q9Wnmy

Sometimes I ask myself in what world this guys are living....

 

[bdy0627]

Jonas thought in August that Tesla could deliver 10K in Q4'17. Then he cut that down by 10X to 1K after finding out the Q3 delivery #. I don't think he knows any more than you and I. But I agree with your conclusion that Tesla will likely beat Jonas's latest predictions.

This was his projection in May, 2017 that turned out to be pretty accurate actually:
A major Tesla bull just downgraded the stock, and shares are sliding
"He retained his target price of $305. Jonas said he thought Tesla would struggle to deliver its Model 3 mass-market vehicle in 2017. Jonas said he thought Tesla would deliver only 2,000 vehicles in 2017 and sell 90,000 in 2018."

Keep in mind, that was in May when many of us believed Tesla would be producing thousands per week by October/November.

 

[Hogfighter]

Reading this morning's headlines re: TSLA is evidence that the masses don't have a clue what's coming:

- 'Fisker debuts $129,000 Tesla Killer at CES'
- 'Nvidia now has 2 year lead in autonomous driving'
- 'For value, GM beats TSLA by a mile' (most obvious statement of 2018)
- 'GM's Chevy Bolt just beat Tesla's Model X'

No wonder there are over 30M shares short. If I only scratched the surface by reading the news, I'd be short too.

 

[mongo]

Reading this morning's headlines re: TSLA is evidence that the masses don't have a clue what's coming:

- 'Fisker debuts $129,000 Tesla Killer at CES'
- 'Nvidia now has 2 year lead in autonomous driving'
- 'For value, GM beats TSLA by a mile' (most obvious statement of 2018)
- 'GM's Chevy Bolt just beat Tesla's Model X'

No wonder there are over 30M shares short. If I only scratched the surface by reading the news, I'd be short too.

Hmm, adversarial headline formatting to manipulate algo-bots?

Edit: trailing '?' is the new leading '!' (Where my programmer peeps at?)

 

[Drax7]

Reading this morning's headlines re: TSLA is evidence that the masses don't have a clue what's coming:

- 'Fisker debuts $129,000 Tesla Killer at CES'
- 'Nvidia now has 2 year lead in autonomous driving'
- 'For value, GM beats TSLA by a mile' (most obvious statement of 2018)
- 'GM's Chevy Bolt just beat Tesla's Model X'

No wonder there are over 30M shares short. If I only scratched the surface by reading the news, I'd be short too.

Fake news is standard practice.

 

[JRP3]

Another battery "breakthrough" but it may be worth keeping an eye on New rechargeable batteries that use iron instead of cobalt could be a game changer for electric cars

First, replace cobalt with iron. Second, trick oxygen into taking part in the reaction that moves the lithium ions from the anode to the cathode and back again as the battery is charged and discharged.

The iron battery uses four lithium ions instead of just one like current batteries do. For now, it can only utilize one of these, but there's potential for making use of all four, considerably increasing the battery's efficiency.

 

[JRP3]

Apparently now informative posts can get removed simply because they mention another member's user name

In case anyone missed it Tesla's New York Gigafactory Kicks Off Solar Roof Production

 

[sundaymorning]

I’m sitting tight, we have those bears where we want them. Only a matter of time.

 

[jhm]

Report: US biodiesel fueling deforestation

The food and Tesla discussion has lead me to see what Kimbal Musk has been up to. Notably he takes a dim view of ethanol on grounds of poor land use. This concern easily extends to biodiesel as the article above points out that biodiesel is contributing to deforestation. This is a very poor tradeoff given that about 1/3 of GHG emission stem from agriculture. I suspect that Elon may share these concerns about biofuels.

So here's the nexus. Tesla Semi will help reduce consumption of both diesel and biodiesel. On one hand this avoids direct emission of CO2 and other pollutants, while on the other, it avoids deforestation and other GHG emissions in agriculture.

Kimbal's cry against "industrial food" could become a theme that resonates with Tesla, especially if Tesla places "real food" restaurants at Supercharger stations.