-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
dc_h
Active Member
Would be nice if they can get up to 110,000, assuming the China deal goes through.
There are people for whom EV would bring inconvenience. Such as apartments or condo dwellers, or people travel long distance very often and on a very short notice. So technically there are two overlapping markets.
But the reason for these inconvenience is exactly that: major car makers refuse to offer compelling EVs in large quantities.
Sharing some personal experience:
I am from Europe and am in Miami for a few days which gave me the opportunity to see a M3 in person but unfortunately I did not have enough time to drive it. In a nutshell: you can read as much as you want and watch videos but its nothing like sitting in it.
Its a very new experience somehow odd because its like you miss a lot of instruments and parts that you learned are supposed to be in a car but the M3 feels like stripped down to the bone in a positive way. Its a new and truly exciting experience having most of instruments in a screen that is definitely the best in class in terms of resolution and responsiveness.
Its been a VIN 33XX and still fit and finish outside has been almost perfect. Very few alignment issues also with the glass roof and knowing that they improved since I don't have doubts that they are perfect today. I should add that as a German Machining's Engineer I am very critical with fit and finish and the alignment and panel gaps have been really okay to good. Much better than the S and X that I did see before.
Door do close in a smooth way and I don't understand the critics around the trunk door as I found it easy to close. Inner Trunk and Frunk I find the tissue not aligned everywhere properly and not high class material but this is minor. Door handles are easy to get used to but understand its a new way and some people may find it odd or not ergonomic but its a trade off between costs and function.
Back seats are okay but I agree that the angle for the legs is not perfect for large people but honestly this is a small sporty sedan and if I sit in the back of a 911 I completely kill myself but knowbody talks about it since decades.
Glass roof is awesome as well as space and visibility to the front. Would like to have a button though for the Frunk and Trunk to open.
All in all I am impressed from the car but even more from the new way of driving and understand much better why people do say its a fully new driving experience and feels like the future. Its a hard to explain new level of transportation for sure. Negatives are small items and most you will get used to quickly.
People have been flying around the car and I have seen only happy and impressed faces so no doubt this vehicle will change the industry.
I am from Europe and am in Miami for a few days which gave me the opportunity to see a M3 in person but unfortunately I did not have enough time to drive it. In a nutshell: you can read as much as you want and watch videos but its nothing like sitting in it.
Its a very new experience somehow odd because its like you miss a lot of instruments and parts that you learned are supposed to be in a car but the M3 feels like stripped down to the bone in a positive way. Its a new and truly exciting experience having most of instruments in a screen that is definitely the best in class in terms of resolution and responsiveness.
Its been a VIN 33XX and still fit and finish outside has been almost perfect. Very few alignment issues also with the glass roof and knowing that they improved since I don't have doubts that they are perfect today. I should add that as a German Machining's Engineer I am very critical with fit and finish and the alignment and panel gaps have been really okay to good. Much better than the S and X that I did see before.
Door do close in a smooth way and I don't understand the critics around the trunk door as I found it easy to close. Inner Trunk and Frunk I find the tissue not aligned everywhere properly and not high class material but this is minor. Door handles are easy to get used to but understand its a new way and some people may find it odd or not ergonomic but its a trade off between costs and function.
Back seats are okay but I agree that the angle for the legs is not perfect for large people but honestly this is a small sporty sedan and if I sit in the back of a 911 I completely kill myself but knowbody talks about it since decades.
Glass roof is awesome as well as space and visibility to the front. Would like to have a button though for the Frunk and Trunk to open.
All in all I am impressed from the car but even more from the new way of driving and understand much better why people do say its a fully new driving experience and feels like the future. Its a hard to explain new level of transportation for sure. Negatives are small items and most you will get used to quickly.
People have been flying around the car and I have seen only happy and impressed faces so no doubt this vehicle will change the industry.
Last edited:
bhtooefr
Active Member
Honestly, I wonder if part of the problem is that Tesla sold their prototypes to the public, when most automakers would've crushed them. Edmunds did get a 2017 build, after all...
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I know for a fact Tesla did not sell prototypes to the public because that is illegal.
Maybe they sold Release Candidates?
Those would be a few hundred and almost certainly would have been bought by employees and their families.
bhtooefr
Active Member
By that I mean, other automakers would've called those cars prototypes and kept ownership of them while employees drove them, whereas the Bay Area technology company mindset (that Tesla's very much a part of - see the whole thing where Autosteer is in beta) is to get as many people beta testing your product as possible, and therefore release it while it's still in prototype-state (even if it can't legally be called a prototype).
(Of course, plenty of other automakers do make changes within the first model year, too, after their extensive test cycle. There's a reason why it's generally considered a bad idea to buy the first model year of a new generation of car (a mistake I've made multiple times, although my current first-month-build 2016 Prius's early bugs are rather minor). But, still, some of these problems seem awfully prototypey, especially given newer builds not having these problems.)
(Of course, plenty of other automakers do make changes within the first model year, too, after their extensive test cycle. There's a reason why it's generally considered a bad idea to buy the first model year of a new generation of car (a mistake I've made multiple times, although my current first-month-build 2016 Prius's early bugs are rather minor). But, still, some of these problems seem awfully prototypey, especially given newer builds not having these problems.)
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Prototypes have not been homologated for sale.
Release candidates have been. Meeting all legal requirements to be roadworthy. They just have not been made with production tooling. Legacy OEMs either destroy Release Candidates, use them for testing, or have them in the fleet for employee official use. But they can be sold to the public.
It is not an arbitrary designation.
An operating system doesn't kill people in beta. A car can.
There are different and very strict rules on the matter.
Release candidates have been. Meeting all legal requirements to be roadworthy. They just have not been made with production tooling. Legacy OEMs either destroy Release Candidates, use them for testing, or have them in the fleet for employee official use. But they can be sold to the public.
It is not an arbitrary designation.
An operating system doesn't kill people in beta. A car can.
There are different and very strict rules on the matter.
Its official since today: Hamburg does restrict two roads in the city for Diesel cars.
Hamburg verhängt Diesel-Fahrverbötchen
More will follow and Diesel registrations will accelerate to fall. I cannot say that I am happy about it as buyers will now turn to Gas cars and the C02 emissions increase. Would be a good time to have the M3 in Germany but we have to wait another year. Still S and X are available and that may make some people reconsider.
Hamburg verhängt Diesel-Fahrverbötchen
More will follow and Diesel registrations will accelerate to fall. I cannot say that I am happy about it as buyers will now turn to Gas cars and the C02 emissions increase. Would be a good time to have the M3 in Germany but we have to wait another year. Still S and X are available and that may make some people reconsider.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I'm gonna be me and say Q2 is pessimistic. You have ~190 million better than Q1. Model 3 volume will be at least (10x3.5k/ wk)= 35k vs 10k for Q1. So 25k additional cars, 190 million/25k is only ~$5,400 a car gross margin on the PUP, LR, likely painted EAP cars (11% GM).
(of course, I have no visibility into changes on the expense lines).
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Last edited:
Seems optimistic. We started the quarter with 4 weeks at a rate below 2500. And the weeks when they'll make up for it are only after the factory shutdown meaning at least one if not two of those high volume weeks will spend in transit instead of been delivered. 28k Model 3's is my bet of which 4-8k go to Canada. Plus 22k S/X for an even 50k total deliveries.
I'm optimistic
And you are likely accurate.Overhang will probably make you more right than me. Q1 hit 2k/wk in the last week. so that is overhang and Q1 sales were more like 8k, with your number of 28k for Q2, that is a delta of 20k units on 190 million GM = $8.5k a car which is a decent 18% GM (but may be low with high EAP adoption). 28k over my 10wk period is <3k / week (1 week overhang). 2 weeks shutdown (2k rate), 2 week overhang (4-5k rate), is 9 weeks @ 3.5k average = 31.5k.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
bdy0627
Active Member
IMO, this seems like a very conservative base for setting 2019 expectations. It's very possible that model 3 production will be better than 6k per week for 2019, but after 2017/2018, it seems wise to forecast with conservative expectations. The only thing that jumped out to me was 40 producing weeks. That seems low to me. Why only 40?
What if Tesla does sandbag Q2 deliveries to move out hitting 200k?
OHHHH!!! good point, more overhang due to reduced sales drive. ( come on Canada!!!)
SoOooo I think Q3 is too low then
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Article
