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Johann Koeber
Happy Owner
The German Post office (!) produces an electric delivery vehicle. It is available for the general market. Today they announced they are doubling production due to high demand.
Unternehmen: Post eröffnet zweites Streetscooter-Werk - n-tv.de
More on Streetscooter in English:
StreetScooter - Wikipedia
Unternehmen: Post eröffnet zweites Streetscooter-Werk - n-tv.de
More on Streetscooter in English:
StreetScooter - Wikipedia
I think 35k could be a high estimate and for production not for sales. That will lag by probably by 5k. 190m/25k is 7.6k not 5.4k.
That said I agree it’s a bit pessimistic.
Good catch on math error! ( i dived by 35k for some reason) The 200k cutoff will probably make Q2 lower along with the overhand at the highest production rate. July will be Gonzo though!
Totally agree. Q3 I’m expecting they do 27-28k of S/X and probably 70-80k of M3 (or more...gotta see their end Q2 rate)..and big gains in energy and roof installations.
For the audience:
The owners really never intended to produce the car themselves and offered VW to buy the concept and car a few years ago but VW declined with the comment that there is no demand for it.... Years later they acknowledged that it has been a mistake and wrong decision. After VW Deutsche Post who tested first cars bought the small company and is now an EV Automaker. Smart guys.
For me another prove that ICE Automakers do not understand EVs and even a mail company like Deutsche Post does understand it better...
I'm not sure but I think they said he would take a few weeks off and come back for Model Y development. I think they'll start to get more serious about Model Y once 5k/w Model 3 is sustained, so he'll probably come back in 6-10 weeks.
K_Dizzle
Member
This. This seems to be the primary error of Tesla bears. Electric cars do not compete with each other until fuel cars are wiped out. Which might happen next year in Norway, which will be interesting, but will take several more years anywhere else.
We have told you why you're wrong; the financials say all they have to do is hit 5000 Model 3 per week, and they will deliver on that.
You have a chance to get out of your short position at a tidy profit right now, before the squeeze. If you do, my hat will be off to you for sharp short-term trading. Somehow I think you won't take it.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I hope Doug Field is going on leave to get cloned, and we get multiple Doug Fields back
Are you serious?
You're not right?
Cars dont compete against other cars until different cars dont exist?
Sweet christ.
Im going to assume you mean "Despite the Mission E taking some market share from Tesla in the 80-110k performance EV space, the growth of that space will increase far more that it will not have any bearing on Tesla's sales.
While still an incredibly inaccurate statement, it is at least following a string of logic that doesnt go against the basics of business 101.
No, he (and I before him) do not mean that at all. Tesla sales are production limited. At the moment there are 110,000 people per year who buy Model S and X. And zero who buy Mission E. In a year or so, there will be 110,000 people who buy Model S and X, and maybe 10,000 who buy Mission E. Tesla do not lose any market share from this.
Mod: tone down the histrionics. --ggr
Those are very reasonable criteria except that you'll be too slow; when 2 consecutive quarters of sustained production without a cap raise happens, the stock will skyrocket and it will be too late to get out of your short position without heavy losses. Every short-seller will be rushing for the exits while you do. One quarter would be more sound, since you have to get out before everyone else tries to.
I have said before that I will become bearish when there are enough other mass produced EVs on the near horizon (not concepts, not low production, not compliance cars) to saturate the entire $35k+ car market (eliminating ICE sales) if at that point Tesla has still not fixed its software, communucations, and service center geographical distribution problems. Then they become a company which can be beat on features/quality/customer service; until ICE is wiped out, they cannot, because ICE is so much worse.
Or if Tesla proves unable to produce in high volume with the level of automation they need to keep production labor costs down, but I consider that less likely.
I hope Doug Field is going on leave to get cloned, and we get multiple Doug Fields back
Left Field and Right Field?
Reality, ggr and I are dead serious. I can put this in technical microeconomics terms. Gasoline and diesel cars are an inferior good.
Given the choice between a gas car and an electric car of the same price, essentially everyone will choose the electric. The only reason to buy a gas car is inability to afford an electric car. Now, needs like "minivan" or "pickup" do override this so someone may buy a gas pickup rather than an electric sedan, but once someone has tried an EV, they will never pick a gas sedan over an EV sedan unless price is an issue or the gas car is available now and the EV not available for months in the future.
Look at the market understanding that. Every EV sold wipes out a gas car sale. Only once all the gas car sales (of the price of Model 3 or above) are wiped out, only then do EVs compete with each other.
Your analytical mistake is fundamental. You think there is an "EV space". You said so. You are wrong. There is a "sedan space", and within it everyone who knows EVs exist, can afford one, and can afford to wait for one gets an EV. Those who cannot afford it settle, unhappily, for an inferior ICE car. Like buying McDonald's because they can't afford to go to real restaurants.
Given the choice between a gas car and an electric car of the same price, essentially everyone will choose the electric. The only reason to buy a gas car is inability to afford an electric car. Now, needs like "minivan" or "pickup" do override this so someone may buy a gas pickup rather than an electric sedan, but once someone has tried an EV, they will never pick a gas sedan over an EV sedan unless price is an issue or the gas car is available now and the EV not available for months in the future.
Look at the market understanding that. Every EV sold wipes out a gas car sale. Only once all the gas car sales (of the price of Model 3 or above) are wiped out, only then do EVs compete with each other.
Your analytical mistake is fundamental. You think there is an "EV space". You said so. You are wrong. There is a "sedan space", and within it everyone who knows EVs exist, can afford one, and can afford to wait for one gets an EV. Those who cannot afford it settle, unhappily, for an inferior ICE car. Like buying McDonald's because they can't afford to go to real restaurants.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Did Android phones take market share away from iPhone or flip phones?
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I hope Doug Field is going on leave to get cloned, and we get multiple Doug Fields back
Reality, if you have enough experience, you should be able to tell that neroden's comment is intelligent, instead of laughing at it. Tesla's Model 3 is so much better than ICE cars, people will skip ICEs and go for the Model 3. Everyone who test drove my car went to reserve their own. Tesla is facing a HUGE demand. More and more people will be able to test drive and switch. China alone sold almost 30 million vehicles last year, most of them were ICEs.
Do ICE carmakers understand that EVs will eliminate the demand for ICE cars? absolutely, as soon as they test the Model 3, they totally get it. But they can't say it, and they don't have a good solution. VW just got rid off their CEO because he didn't have a viable plan to move forward. Elon said even he doesn't know what to do if he is running a legacy carmaker. Ford basically stoped ICE sedans, GM will likely to stop too.
If Porsche actually produces a good EV, their customers will stop buying the gas version. Suddenly they will have no profit, only huge losses.
Pretty soon all car makers will stop producing ICE sedans. When Tesla's Model Y comes to the market, all of them will stop producing ICE SUVs. All of this will happen within 4 years.
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