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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Can't say this surprised me, I didn't like the sound of it when Elon mentioned the loss of stock options, though he later explained his meaning.

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose...labor-complaint-stock-options-musk-tweet.html

The United Auto Workers union this week filed a federal labor complaint against Tesla after CEO Elon Musk tweeted that the company's factory workers would be forced to give up their stock options if they decided to unionize.

Musk later clarified that the UAW hadn’t negotiated stock options for unionized workers at Ford Motor Co., Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles, or General Motors Co.

On Twitter, one person said that what Musk really meant was that he believes the UAW doesn’t allow union workers to own stock. Musk replied: “Exactly. UAW does not have individual stock ownership as part of the compensation at any other company.”
 
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For all you FUD fighters out there: there's a Volvo forum called SwedeSpeed that I frequent (I'm also a Volvo PHEV owner). On that site there's a thread purporting to compare the XC90 with the Model X.

It started out ok but morphed over time into a place where a certain subset of Volvo aficianados come to dump on Tesla, largely with FUD articles. I and a couple of others drop in from time to time to share our experiences, but are greatly outnumbered. If anyone here would like to share thoughts over there, I certainly wouldn't object to the backup. Volvo owners largely tend to have what I'd consider great potential to become Tesla owners: Volvo's key selling point is generally seen as safety, an area where Tesla also shines. And prospective Volvo buyers are in the market for luxury vehicles. I therefore would love to see that thread move in a more rational, balanced manner. I just don't have the time, patience, or will to keep up with the trolls. And of course arguments are more persuasive when it's not just the same person rehashing then over and over...

One final mention of this, since the first one was in the wee hours. The thread continues to fill with FUD beyond my individual capability to keep up with retorts. Not the end of the world if it's a lost cause, but if anyone here has a couple of minutes to check in every now and then, it'd be useful. It's coming up on 25,000 views, so not insignificant.
 
I can tell you where to find good US media.
Vox for general interest stuff
Teen Vogue (!!!)
Fivethirtyeight
Electrek
Any number of other specialty blogs

The legacy media in the US ranges from junk to actually corrupt (WSJ, Fox).

I could not agree more. I'd also add ProPublica, Frontline, and Democracy Now to that list. Vice News is actually quite good.

While I read the Washington Post because it gives me a window into what the DC Beltway folks are up to (and Politico Playbook is a great window into This Town), my main daily read is the legendary Financial Times. UK-based, owned by Nikkei: staid, objective, trusted. Quite frankly, the $18/month I pay for Financial Times digital access should be de rigure for any investor, period.
 
Speculating:

With import tariffs in China falling and prices decreasing we should see a higher margin per car in that country combined with a stronger demand. That could help to achieve overall profitability quicker.

"A Tesla gallery in Shanghai has managed to sell out its entire Model X 75D inventory in 24 hours, after the Customs Tariff Commission under China’s cabinet announced that it would reduce car import duties from 20-25% to just 15% starting July 1. "

As all Models are supply constraint and S and X are not in production increase focus right now due to "all hands on deck for the 3" it would make business sense to ship as many S and X and sell them in China as possible.

Why? Well, first of all its likely a higher Margin in China for those cars so it makes sense to allocate them. Secondly China is the most attractive EV market due to government rules and incentives and every Tesla on the road will help to capture market share for the future. Third, the tax incentive in the US can be pushed further out with decreased allocation which is good for the demand on the long run in the US given that more people will benefit from the $7500 or later lower income tax deduction.

We may experience here a market prioritization that consumers may consider as unfair but to achieve profitability they should do it.

I wonder if other markets like US and Europe will get a lower allocation though.

Tesla's Shanghai gallery sells out entire Model X inventory in 24 hours
To avoid 200k in US in Q2, Tesla should put a lot of the MS/X/3 they build between now until late June on ships/trains to China/Canada/EU. After that allocation can change dramatically. The counter-part of pushing 200k threshold into Q3, should be to maximize # of sales in the US in Q3/Q4, and the # of US buyers taking full tax advantage, so I can see Tesla prioritize US sales for all MS/X/3 models in Q3/Q4.
 
So the UAW files a complaint implying that Elon needs to let employees keep stock options if they unionized while simultaneously disallowing unionized employees from holding stock options? Hilarious.
Source on UAW disallowing members from holding stock options?

This article seems to suggest the opposite:
"4. 1983 Caterpillar Strike

More than 120,000 workers went on strike for 205 days against the heavy machinery manufacturer, making it the longest in UAW history. The union had sought a solid, five-year contract with Caterpillar, but walked way with only a three-and-a-half year contract which also included a wage freeze and reduction in bonus time paid for perfect attendance. The UAW won a stronger profit-sharing plan and employee stock ownership option."
 
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Source on UAW disallowing members from holding stock options?

This article seems to suggest the opposite:

I was referring to the quoted post.

Musk later clarified that the UAW hadn’t negotiated stock options for unionized workers at Ford Motor Co., Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles, or General Motors Co.

On Twitter, one person said that what Musk really meant was that he believes the UAW doesn’t allow union workers to own stock. Musk replied: “Exactly. UAW does not have individual stock ownership as part of the compensation at any other company.”

So that's probably just inaccurate.
 
That sounds like the Gromann line that supposed to be already installed......

Exclusive: Tesla flies in new battery production line for Gigafactory

However Elon also said that the semi automated line is good for 5k/w and the Gromann line for another - if I remember correctly. That would indicate they work on the part beyond 5k/w to be able report 6k/w in the next call.
 
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That sounds like the Gromann line that supposed to be already installed......

Exclusive: Tesla flies in new battery production line for Gigafactory

I suspect that some of the Grohmann battery stuff was installed a couple of months ago (hence, the increase in production over the last two months.

Teslarati has a video of someone tearing down a Model 3 battery pack and removing one of the modules: the sheer weight of the modules easily explains the massive awkward factor if that process wasn't automated properly. The need for those improvements becomes exceptionally apparent: let's just say that dropping a module is an extremely bad idea...

Tesla Model 3 battery details revealed in partial teardown and analysis
 
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That sounds like the Gromann line that supposed to be already installed......

Exclusive: Tesla flies in new battery production line for Gigafactory

However Elon also said that the semi automated line is good for 5k/w and the Gromann line for another - if I remember correctly. That would indicate they work on the part beyond 5k/w to be able report 6k/w in the next call.
or Tesla thinks that the 5k/wk target is in the bag, and is moving on to the next item on the agenda, cost reduction. From Q1 investor update letter:

we now expect to reach a module production rate of 5,000 car sets per week even before we install the new automated line designed and built by Tesla in Germany. Still, once installed, this new automated module line should significantly lower manufacturing costs.
 
or Tesla thinks that the 5k/wk target is in the bag, and is moving on to the next item on the agenda, cost reduction. From Q1 investor update letter:

Air shipping this equipment in only makes sense if they expect it to bump production starting July 1.
The new hires and spending what it takes are a departure from "total focus on 5k" and "expense management" that ruled the day for last 60days.

I agree that 5k must be in the rear view and tesla is looking past that to the next goal.

Trailhound- first post
 
Air shipping this equipment in only makes sense if they expect it to bump production starting July 1.
The new hires and spending what it takes are a departure from "total focus on 5k" and "expense management" that ruled the day for last 60days.

I agree that 5k must be in the rear view and tesla is looking past that to the next goal.

Trailhound- first post
Actually looking at the cost of shipping vs labor saved, it may not be so clear cut what's cheaper. Cross-post from my comment in the market action thread

Charter a cargo plane as big as a 747 can cost $25k/hr, so it could cost ~$500k for each plane, so Tesla could have paid $3m for this shipment of 6 planes. However, shipping via ocean freight vs air can be a difference of a month.

How much labor cost can be saved in 1 month?

Just a WAG if Tesla have 500 people at GGF building these modules, at 100k/yr salary+overhead, that's $50m/yr, or $4m per month. Installing the Grohmann line 1 month earlier, once the battery line is producing at full speed, can potentially Tesla money, and free up precious manpower to ramp stuff where needed.
 
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Air shipping this equipment in only makes sense if they expect it to bump production starting July 1.

Nice post, but they will want to get the jump to push as many vehicles delivered in the US for the second half of this year.

They are shipping to Canada to avoid a hard to justify revenue shortfall, while building inventory in the US to deliver in the second half.

In other words, if they were a private company, those Canadian cars may have been held for second half of 2018 US sales.

This is speculation.
 
Ahaha. I feel like I was caught cheating on the forum. :) (And thanks.)

Indeed, a fine anecdote with an important lesson for modern journalists. Thank you, Bonnie.

Too many "reporters" nowadays fail to properly source their material or seek rebuttals that might counter their "theses" that masquerade as "news". They often rely on "tips" from anonymous sources with unmentioned personal agendas. Instead they should be consulting those about whom they are reporting and named credible experts. More often they simply parrot other media stories, resulting in paraphrasing that becomes distorted in the manner of the children's telephone game.

Now as expected they are railing back at Elon. Instead they should take to heart what Elon and Bonnie are trying to tell them.
 
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