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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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10 minute Edmunds review just out, by Dan Edmunds himself. Through the review he sounded pretty positive. The interior was considerably better than he expected. Some mild criticism about the ride, describing it as "busy" on some surfaces (later in the video he made an aside noting some stiffness). Dan had stronger criticism of the reliance on the center screen and it leading to more time with his eyes off the road for some basic functions. In the end, turns out he was actually quite impressed overall- he has a second reservation he had placed for himself (i.e. rather than this car bought for testing by his company), and will be keeping it ; )

 
There’s always someone who thinks they’re an expert from the sidelines.

I'm quite surprised that he doesn't see what has been explained by EM himself quite clearly in the past. I'm summarizing (too lazy to find the quote):

'Building just 1 of something is quite easy. Building thousands per week, with 0 defects, is really really hard'

That's the key difference in understanding the two companies.
 
10 minute Edmunds review just out, by Dan Edmunds himself. Through the review he sounded pretty positive. The interior was considerably better than he expected. Some mild criticism about the ride, describing it as "busy" on some surfaces (later in the video he made an aside noting some stiffness). Dan had stronger criticism of the reliance on the center screen and it leading to more time with his eyes off the road for some basic functions. In the end, turns out he was actually quite impressed overall- he has a second reservation he had placed for himself (i.e. rather than this car bought for testing by his company), and will be keeping it ; )


Thank you.

There are a couple of things that this video illuminates:

1) The ride/suspension has been slightly under damped for a long time - it was visible in the very first "sighting" videos. And the tire pressure is high, likely for load and range reasons. I had a similar problem on my Scott Scale 730/710 plus bike, where the tires are 2.8 inches wide and become a key element of the suspension. To get the kind of under damped traction I was looking for, three things fixed this: lower tire pressures ( from 19 psi to about 14psi/1 atmosphere ), more supple side wall by doubling the threads per inch ( from 60 TPI to 120 TPI ) , and increasing the inner rim width by almost 30% (from 35mm to 45mm) to change the sidewall shape. I expect Tesla knows about all these control factors and if you drop the tire pressure by 5 psi you lose some range, but the busy-ness is less. So from an investor's perspective the car will still sell well.

2. The screen design is great for introduction, with the picture of the car in the upper left hand corner, but once underway big control buttons want to show on the left edge, and be findable/registered off a thumb detent in the center of the left edge. Expect a radial pattern of buttons between 12:30 and 3:00 (registers off the thumb tactile anchor) that match the tips of the 4 finger tips on the right hand. Maybe some of the buttons will will assign function to the "analog" controls on the steering wheel. I suppose they could use the lower left corner of the bezel as the tactile anchor... So for investors, Tesla can solve this if they want to.

Thanks again for the video. Nice to hear a 29er fits!
 
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Bolt without steering wheel in 2019 :

GM unveils autonomous Bolt EV without steering wheel or pedal, aims to bring it to market next year

Geo-fenced only, but even then, this is a Photoshop-job and I doubt GM will get this in production in 2019 (if ever). As it is gofenced it can never leave the city and will never be sold to consumers.

Also people will not be ready (at least not in 2020) to not have a steering wheel and breaks, unless this is limited to 20 km/h.

IMHO this is just to pump the stock, trying to create the perception towards GM shareholders that GM is serious about EV's and autonomous driving.

This is much harder to believe than any Tesla announcement ever. I am sure that Anton Wahlman and all other authors and TSLA bear-commenters on S.A. will be at least as critical toward this as they are to Tesla. /S.
 
NY Times/CNBC: yesterday & today: Electric vehicle tax credit survives, but GM and Tesla aren’t cheering

This morning I wrote the three people who represent me in Congress. I asked them to either enact a universal ending date for the credit, or a cap on the total number of electric cars purchased by Americans. Otherwise, it is the American buyers of foreign cars who will receive most of the remaining benefits, to the detriment of Tesla buyers after the current 200,000-car limit per manufacturer is hit. You too may want to write those who represent you in Congress.
 
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@schonelucht Apologies for the flip flop, but I’m back to my original position:


See 36:20 when J.B. says they’d be “disappointed” if not at $100/kWh “by the end of the decade” in June of 2015, which is one full year before Tesla pulled its 35 GWh run-rate goal to 2018.

Thanks for the link. I had seen it before, but enjoyed rewatching.

Unfortunately JB did not specify pack or cell.

The last known (pre GF) cost was $190 / kWh pack cost and this is for the 100 kWh pack on the model S. The 75 kWh pack was $233 / kWh.

Because som pack costs are fixed and don’t reduce for smaller packs.

10 minute Edmunds review just out, by Dan Edmunds himself. Through the review he sounded pretty positive. The interior was considerably better than he expected. Some mild criticism about the ride, describing it as "busy" on some surfaces (later in the video he made an aside noting some stiffness). Dan had stronger criticism of the reliance on the center screen and it leading to more time with his eyes off the road for some basic functions. In the end, turns out he was actually quite impressed overall- he has a second reservation he had placed for himself (i.e. rather than this car bought for testing by his company), and will be keeping it ; )


I thought it was fair and unbiased. I just wish he had enthused more about the handling, but that might be more of a Motor Trend viewpoint.

Also, he could have mentioned upgradability, but maybe assumed everyone already knows.
 
Not sure if I agree with Vance here, but this thread is worth reading:
Ashlee Vance on Twitter
He obviously knows a lot about Musk the person (he's the guy who wrote the Musk biography), not necessarily a lot about Tesla the company, especially now, after 4 years.
He evidently thinks that delivering a record 101,000 cars in a year is not hitting your manufacturing stride. <facepalm>
 
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See 36:20 when J.B. says they’d be “disappointed” if not at $100/kWh “by the end of the decade” in June of 2015, which is one full year before Tesla pulled its 35 GWh run-rate goal to 2018.

I am actually not hearing hem say below $100. He says "in the $100 range". Big difference. Beyond that, the gigafactory won't do 35GWh in 2018 and in my opinion the odds are now larger that it won't even be at that rate by the end of this year than that it would.
 
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I will be supersurprised if this is going to get into individual customers hands. As you say, at most we will see it under strict monitoring within a GM controlled ride sharing program. At the same time, GM has made more progress towards autonomous driving this year than Tesla has which was exclusively focused on getting its driver's assistance features up to speed.
 
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Not sure if I agree with Vance here, but this thread is worth reading:
Ashlee Vance on Twitter
He obviously knows a lot about Musk the person (he's the guy who wrote the Musk biography), not necessarily a lot about Tesla the company, especially now, after 4 years.
He evidently thinks that delivering a record 101,000 cars in a year is not hitting your manufacturing stride. <facepalm>

Vance’s agenda is not clear. Perhaps he was seeking feedback for a prospective article, or was hoping for a reaction from Musk that could lead to another book. I responded three times to Vance’s Musk twitter thread yesterday. He replied to me twice. The last time he tweeted to me, “There's nothing I really disagree with there.” And that became his final comment within that thread. Arguments from several folks in that thread may have softened his attitude.

Curt Renz replying to Ashlee Vance (valleyhack) on Twitter
 
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Vance’s agenda is not clear.

I also found his comments odd. I read his book and it did not seem to me that he thought SpaceX was doing much better. In the book both companies got to the verge of bankruptcy and SpaceX had, like you said, a lot of setbacks. In fact, he made it sound like SpaceX was closer to failure than Tesla. So I don't understand why he is making comments that go against what he wrote in the book.

I think his point is that once SpaceX got going it was pretty much smooth sailing, while Tesla failed to deliver on expectations for 3 different model cars already. That I agree with, I am also disappointed in the production estimates backpedaling.
 
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I am actually not hearing hem say below $100. He says "in the $100 range". Big difference. Beyond that, the gigafactory won't do 35GWh in 2018 and in my opinion the odds are now larger that it won't even be at that rate by the end of this year than that it would.

Agreed, I have 35 GWh run-rate by exit-1Q19, but let’s see what they say on the next earnings call.
 
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