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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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No communication problem here. I had a nagging problem with the driver window not wanting to close -up about 3 inches inches, down again - repeat a few times then finally close. Wasn’t a real problem until traveling after Christmas with toll booths, rain and freezing temps -and the window got worse.

I called service and we tried recalibration to no avail, they offered to send a ranger. I deferred since I was away from home. A week later, they called to arrange a ranger and I deferred to take it to service center for annual maintenance and fix the window.

Long story short, EXCELLENT service, a loaner X, update texts every few hours. NEVER from another dealer!
 
Tesla Model 3 Alcantara controversy explained • r/teslamotors

This is how Tesla keeps shooting themselves in the foot. They're doing amazing things, but tripping over the details.

I'm glad at least somebody is mentioning the alcantara in the room. I love Tesla but these self-inflicted wounds are (again!) disappointing. Check out the rest of the forums, 22 pages of comments in a single day with most of them negative is not a fluke and it will not go away easily.

The handling of this situation is entirely Tesla's fault. I don't particularly care about the alcantara itself, my problem is what reveals about how the company is run. And all of this could have been avoided easily or at least mitigated early on.

When even the biggest Tesla cheerleaders are calling BS on this one maybe we can admit they screwed up:
U9CwAWY.png
 
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There was definitely a point at which he said they’d build the 35k car first. I can’t find a link but I distinctly remember people being surprised because Tesla always builds the higher end car first historically.

What happened is when Elon announced the AWD top of the line version would not be 1st production, many jumped to the conclusion that SR would be first.
 
@schonelucht I had time to reflect on our earlier conversation. I know agree with you that there is no evidence to support pack-level $100/kWh earlier than 2020. My assumptions for gross margin now incorporate $125/kWh for 2018, $110/kWh for 2019, and $100/kWh for 2020. Thanks for taking the time to play devil's advocate.

@schonelucht Apologies for the flip flop, but I’m back to my original position:


See 36:20 when J.B. says they’d be “disappointed” if not at $100/kWh “by the end of the decade” in June of 2015, which is one full year before Tesla pulled its 35 GWh run-rate goal to 2018.
 
...See 36:20 when J.B. says they’d be “disappointed” if not at $100/kWh “by the end of the decade”

Well JB did say "....in the $100 kWh range....", and this was back when batteries were $200 - $300.

In that context, I'd consider $120 or $130 to be in the $100 range. I don't think he was really speaking to whether they'd be $100 or $120 here, just appreciably under $150.
 
Well JB did say "....in the $100 kWh range....", and this was back when batteries were $200 - $300.

In that context, I'd consider $120 or $130 to be in the $100 range. I don't think he was really speaking to whether they'd be $100 or $120 here, just appreciably under $150.

That makes sense, although i note that Tesla was “already below $190” in early 2016, so probably closer to $200 than $300 at the time of the conference in June of 2015.
 
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The average intelligence of a Tesla bear.

I used to be surprised at people shorting this stock... used to.

Can you spell this one out for me? I don't get it.

This person appears to be purchasing J20 Put options, so they have the right to sell TSLA at some unknown price. This option would become quite valuable if TSLA tanks, but worthless if TSLA soars. If there is a squeeze, the Put would drop in value and they might lose their investment, but at least they wouldn't be forced to buy stock at some highly elevated post-squeeze price, like a short seller would. So their potential loss isn't infinite like a short seller. How is this a stupid idea for a bear?
 
Can you spell this one out for me? I don't get it.

This person appears to be purchasing J20 Put options, so they have the right to sell TSLA at some unknown price. This option would become quite valuable if TSLA tanks, but worthless if TSLA soars. If there is a squeeze, the Put would drop in value and they might lose their investment, but at least they wouldn't be forced to buy stock at some highly elevated post-squeeze price, like a short seller would. So their potential loss isn't infinite like a short seller. How is this a stupid idea for a bear?
I think VA was laughing at the bear idea that the faster the ramp the faster TSLA will go BK?
 
Not sure if I agree with Vance here, but this thread is worth reading:
Ashlee Vance on Twitter
He obviously knows a lot about Musk the person (he's the guy who wrote the Musk biography), not necessarily a lot about Tesla the company, especially now, after 4 years.

There’s always someone who thinks they’re an expert from the sidelines.
 
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Can you spell this one out for me? I don't get it.

This person appears to be purchasing J20 Put options, so they have the right to sell TSLA at some unknown price. This option would become quite valuable if TSLA tanks, but worthless if TSLA soars. If there is a squeeze, the Put would drop in value and they might lose their investment, but at least they wouldn't be forced to buy stock at some highly elevated post-squeeze price, like a short seller would. So their potential loss isn't infinite like a short seller. How is this a stupid idea for a bear?

I think you’re giving him too much credit - my read is the guy is actually saying that he can ride out any squeeze and then continue to hold all the way back down until Tesla goes bankrupt, i.e., he thinks he’s smart because he can’t get margin called with options.
 
As of 11:30 NY time, the solar stocks I follow are having quite the morning. In order, and hoping the tabulation holds up:

Hanwha -0.23%
Renesol +2.33%
Jinko Solar +2.71%
Canadian Solar +3.01%
First Solar +8.82%
Sunpower +10.60%

But I've not seen anything specific yet for reasons.

Would the timing make sense for it to be related to

Happy Responses To FERC's Unanimous Rejection Of Coal & Nuclear Subsidy Plan Proposed By US Energy Secretary Rick Perry (+ FERC Statements) | CleanTechnica
 
Can you spell this one out for me? I don't get it.

This person appears to be purchasing J20 Put options, so they have the right to sell TSLA at some unknown price. This option would become quite valuable if TSLA tanks, but worthless if TSLA soars. If there is a squeeze, the Put would drop in value and they might lose their investment, but at least they wouldn't be forced to buy stock at some highly elevated post-squeeze price, like a short seller would. So their potential loss isn't infinite like a short seller. How is this a stupid idea for a bear?

Well, options price move almost at an exponential rate compared to stock. Especially the first two sigma moves.

2020 makes that curve more mellow.

It really depend on how he applied his purchase. You can buy options on margin for example. You could borrow the money to meet the margin requirements.

Time also work against put option purchasers. TSLA put options have been historically more expensive than calls and has a high premium so the time decay is scary. That's why my preferred way to purchase tsla stocks is to just sell a bunch of puts at different strike prices instead of waiting forever in front of my pc for the price to drop.

Buying call or put ootions out right is great. If the market misprices the magnitude of a potential event that comes up. Say bac is about to have glass steagall thrown at its face and volatility is still less than 0.2. You buy options outright because the market is mispricing the risk.

In TSLA's place, the premium has often priced in such a move. What often happens is you correctly judge the ER , bought a put, stock moves down 5%, but volatility also disappears post ER so you end up losing money.
 
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