General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Starno]

Vance’s agenda is not clear. Perhaps he was seeking feedback for a prospective article, or was hoping for a reaction from Musk that could lead to another book. I responded three times to Vance’s Musk twitter thread yesterday. He replied to me twice. The last time he tweeted to me, “There's nothing I really disagree with there.” And that became his final comment within that thread. Arguments from several folks in that thread may have softened his attitude.

Curt Renz replying to Ashlee Vance (valleyhack) on Twitter

Well, also Elon tweeted this a few months ago :

I'm sure Ashlee thinks highly of Elon, but I could see why he might hold some grudges as well. Thus this seemingly disdain to Elon's achievements with Tesla.

 

[ZeApelido]

I am actually not hearing hem say below $100. He says "in the $100 range". Big difference. Beyond that, the gigafactory won't do 35GWh in 2018 and in my opinion the odds are now larger that it won't even be at that rate by the end of this year than that it would.

I can't recall exactly, but in the (now taken-down) video of Jeff Dahn giving a talk, he seemed to be really biting his tongue to not say that the price will be much lower than $100.

 

[kbM3]

It was actually "below" $190/kWh pack cost.

The Louisiana tax credit was 50% of the cost of the EV drivetrain and was exactly $9500.00 for the 100D (unfortunately that is now much reduced, so I won’t get near that much for my M3).

 

[JRP3]

The Louisiana tax credit was 50% of the cost of the EV drivetrain and was exactly $9500.00 for the 100D (unfortunately that is now much reduced, so I won’t get near that much for my M3).

I don't know how they calculate that credit but the EV drivetrain would include the motor/inverter. I was referring to the statement from Tesla that they were below $190/kWh pack level.

 

[Hogfighter]

5 Model 3's at the Palm Beach Service Center for delivery. Unable to get VIN's, but ya know.

 

[kbM3]

I don't know how they calculate that credit but the EV drivetrain would include the motor/inverter. I was referring to the statement from Tesla that they were below $190/kWh pack level.

I misquoted. The credit was for the part of the vehicle that stores the energy (i.e. the battery pack), not the drivetrain.

So if below $190.00, then it was by a trivial amount.

 

[SteveG3]

and now out, a Road and Track review,

Tesla Model 3 Test Drive, Review - First Drive With the New Tesla Model 3

I recommend reading the well written full review.

It's overall very positive,

I found this most here,

It’s one thing to discover driving joy in a sports car... Finding that in a family sedan—a car aimed at entry-luxury four-door buyers, ...is an unexpected delight. A small handful of models in automotive history have offered such immediate, unfettered brightness to regular, non-gearhead drivers. Think of Sir Alec Issigonis’s riotously tossable Mini, BMW’s revelatory 2002. The Model 3 shares something with those legends: It sneaks engaging, emotive driving into the hands of buyers who weren’t even looking for it.

and here in a comparison to a Model S P100D they were lent at the same time,

"...Ever since its introduction, the Model S has felt one step removed from “normal” cars, with its rocket acceleration and tablet dashboard. The Model 3 feels like it hails from a decade in the future. It redefines the scope, painting the Model S as the halfway point between conventional cars and the capital-F Future.

Road and tire noise seeped into our Model S, while the Model 3 whooshed along in dampened silence; the studious minimalism of the 3’s interior made the S’s dash and door panels seem overadorned... If the S was an ambitious and successful first experiment, the 3 benefits from everything Tesla has learned since."

though, a ways into the review, some strong criticism of the review car's fit and finish,

"Body panel gaps, particularly around the doors, were gaping and inconsistent; the paint showed a few sags and one spot of mismatched hue on the driver’s door."

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Agreed, I have 35 GWh run-rate by exit-1Q19, but let’s see what they say on the next earnings call.

@schonelucht Having said that, I originally thought cell production would be the bottleneck for GF1 hitting its targets, but turns out module/pack automation was the issue, while cells may have been piling up.

This means, if and when Tesla solves the automation issue, the catch up may be quicker than expected... or this may just be wishful thinking. We’ll find out in the next earnings call.

 

[SPadival]

OMG. Aussie energy minister who is normally so pro fossil fuels that he got the nickname Frydencoal, sings the praise of EVs. I had a look outside to check if pigs are flying.

Stand by, Australia, for the electric car revolution

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

OMG. Aussie energy minister who is normally so pro fossil fuels that he got the nickname Frydencoal, sings the praise of EVs. I had a look outside to check if pigs are flying.

Stand by, Australia, for the electric car revolution

Well, how do you think he wants to power them?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

OMG. Aussie energy minister who is normally so pro fossil fuels that he got the nickname Frydencoal, sings the praise of EVs. I had a look outside to check if pigs are flying.

Stand by, Australia, for the electric car revolution

Thanks for posting this. This is important. In the last few weeks, there has been a visible shift in politics. Momentum will need to continue.

 

[JRP3]

I misquoted. The credit was for the part of the vehicle that stores the energy (i.e. the battery pack), not the drivetrain.

So if below $190.00, then it was by a trivial amount.

I'd be surprised if Tesla shared their exact pack production costs with state legislators. My guess would be a low ball estimate to minimize state payouts and they just happened to get close.

 

[neroden]

No way! At least they didn't add AWD, larger battery options, AP that wasn't on the model S prototype and unlocking performance AFTER a customer purchase their car at no cost. Scam!

They BROKE USB MUSIC PLAYBACK in an UPDATE a year ago and still haven't fixed it.

The most *charitable* interpretation of this is that their communication is completely fscked so that the team who's supposed to fix it, and Musk, can't tell how important a problem this is. (It's more important than practically anything else in the software. It's a regression, where they actually broke something which was working when they shipped the car.) The less charitable interpretations are worse.

 

[30seconds]

They BROKE USB MUSIC PLAYBACK in an UPDATE a year ago and still haven't fixed it.

The most *charitable* interpretation of this is that their communication is completely fscked so that the team who's supposed to fix it, and Musk, can't tell how important a problem this is. (It's more important than practically anything else in the software. It's a regression, where they actually broke something which was working when they shipped the car.) The less charitable interpretations are worse.

I think the most charitable explanation is that it broke due to changes in the way the file systems are managed and not enough people care about USB playback to put a fix high on the priority list.

 

[30seconds]

10 minute Edmunds review just out, by Dan Edmunds himself. Through the review he sounded pretty positive. The interior was considerably better than he expected. Some mild criticism about the ride, describing it as "busy" on some surfaces (later in the video he made an aside noting some stiffness). Dan had stronger criticism of the reliance on the center screen and it leading to more time with his eyes off the road for some basic functions. In the end, turns out he was actually quite impressed overall- he has a second reservation he had placed for himself (i.e. rather than this car bought for testing by his company), and will be keeping it ; )

Great thing about these reviews is that the AWD and performance versions are still to come

 

[goinfraftw]

I noticed that people were constantly poking and prodding the vehicle, which had the Tesla people on edge. And they had to constantly monitor the vehicle to make sure nobody broke anything. One of the Tesla guys commented to me, "Tragedy of the Commons."

Nothing new, but still .

Source: Model 3 has Tesla Store Debut, Gets Mobbed.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

My Base and Conservative scenario expectations for Model 3 in the coming quarters:

Base scenario assumes 5,000 per week exit-2Q18 and 7,500 per week at end-18, with minimal CapEx.

Conservative scenario assumes another three-month delay.

 

[generalenthu]

My Base and Conservative scenario expectations for Model 3 in the coming quarters:

View attachment 273072

Base scenario assumes 5,000 per week exit-2Q18 and 7,500 per week at end-18, with minimal CapEx.

View attachment 273074

Conservative scenario assumes another three-month delay.

The conservative scenario is too optimistic. It'll be no more than 14-15k at the high end for Q1. The line is not up all weeks. You CANNOT multiply exit rates with number of weeks.

Look at the discussion here from a few days ago, talking about Gene Munster and Rob Maurer's estimates.

 

[Waiting4M3]

The conservative scenario is too optimistic. It'll be no more than 14-15k at the high end for Q1. The line is not up all weeks. You CANNOT multiply exit rates with number of weeks.

Look at the discussion here from a few days ago, talking about Gene Munster and Rob Maurer's estimates.

Agree, here is my WAG on the conservative side:

Q1: 500/wk entry rate, 1.5k/wk exit rate, 2.5k/wk burst at exit, avg 1k/wk, 13k total
Q2: 1.5k/wk entry rate, 3k/wk exit rate, 5k/wk burst at exit, avg 2.2k/wk, 29k total
Q3: 3k/wk entry rate, 5k/wk exit rate, 6k/wk burst at exit, avg 4k/wk, 52k total
Q4: 5k/wk entry rate, 6k/wk exit rate, 7k/wk burst at exit, avg 5.5k/wk, lose 1 week EoY downtime, 66 k total

Total 2018 160k. A conservative WAG, I think there is a good chance Tesla beats it.

Edit: perspective: at this level, if they get $50K ASP on the M3, this would be ~80% increase in revenue from 2017 just from Tesla Auto.

 

[Starno]

Falcon Heavy static fire reported again to Monday ....