General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

I really want to believe the guy and the numbers you summarize here. But he also said 4 lines were online last year which should have been 9GWh over 2017. Yet there were not enough cells to go around for the Australian project?

...so, regarding Puerto Rico, he also said one of the two lines was being used for training and was probably not going at full speed.

Last year I would expect that none of the lines would have been going at full speed.

He also said last year that the car battery cell chemistry and Powerpack battery cell chemistry are different, and that they had ended up with a giant stockpile of car battery cells simultaneous with a shortage of Powerpack cells due to the Model 3 module assembly problem. A misallocation of the 4 lines between cars and Powerpacks.

:shrug: the information is all third-hand from leaks, so the "game of telephone" applies. He could be off by a factor of 10! More likely, there are bottlenecks and shutdowns for cleaning or maintenance which he didn't mention/know about, and this is "optimal" production speed which cannot be generalized to a full year.

But it all sounds plausible enough. 45 GWh is within the ballpark of the originally planned 35 GWh; Musk did say he'd managed substantial increases in volumetric efficiency over the original factory plans; and this is just the cell lines (meaning, I'm not sure they have the same capacity on the module lines or on the aging chambers or on some of the earlier chemical processes, and they may need to finish the building to get this capacity on the full process).

 

[avoigt]

Germanys Gov Auto Administration works on incentives for Gas and EV trucks/semis.

For EV's:

• Between 7,5 and 15 tons - € 8k
• 15 tons or more - € 40k

Its planned to get this through parliament in July. As before they design incentives that cannot be received as these cars and trucks are almost not available and play later surprised that the budget is kind off untouched.

However, once the Semi is in production that would be a home run for Tesla Semi in Germany.

Neue Förderung: 40.000 Euro für einen neuen Elekto-Laster

 

[dhanson865]

Does anyone know what the building to the west of the new lot is? It's to the right of the lot in the picture. It's not in the BuildTesla satellite image comparison's scope, so no idea how long it's been there.

That building is Thrive Market, Inc. 700 Milan Dr #101, Sparks, NV 89434

 

[neroden]

But, from what I recall of the Q1 letter, I would only expect 4.5GWhs of batteries for storage for the entire year. (Not just for PR.)

I would not expect any significant storage deployment anywhere except PR. I think it is ALL being directed to Puerto Rico, with some possible Australian exceptions.

 

[Zaxxon]

Hi,

I bought a few TSLA shares in March when the stock really dipped. I'm interested to listen and participate in shareholder discussions - e.g. upcoming vote on Elon as CEO and Board membership - but I receive no notices from Tesla. I bought via my online broker (I'm in Canada).

Does anyone know how to "register" with Tesla for such official notices and reports?

Thanks.

Here you go. Note that this is public info, and you don't have to own shares in order to sign up.

 

[GBleck]

Does anyone know what the building to the west of the new lot is? It's to the right of the lot in the picture. It's not in the BuildTesla satellite image comparison's scope, so no idea how long it's been there.

Thrive market, inc warehouse according to google maps. Also a Chewy.com warehouse to the east. The Gigafactory can get together with them in case of zombies.

 

[avoigt]

Daimler postpones the launch of the EQ SUV 6 months to June 2019

Daimler-Chef Dieter Zetsche muss fünf Probleme gleichzeitig lösen

 

[Intl Professor]

This is a non-issue. I think may woudl be surprised to find out that there are still a ton of Model S and X reservations that have never been refunded or used. Tesla doesnt sell reservations, they sell cars. The car is late and many had leases coming up and had to do something. when you have 450,000 of anything, you will have thousands of different reasons why they refunded and very few will be because they hate the car.

When this car hits the streets in mass it will have the same impact the Model S had on generating Model X and Model 3 reservations. Lets not forget that tariffs dropping in China will double or triple the market for all the models.

Also, in our case, because I want air suspension and have no need for a P version of M3, there's always the possibility of an S alternative. That might be a drop in 2 of M3 reservations. A jump in SP will also be a factor in that decision as well as consideration of any upgrades to the S.

 

[Intl Professor]

Hi,

I bought a few TSLA shares in March when the stock really dipped. I'm interested to listen and participate in shareholder discussions - e.g. upcoming vote on Elon as CEO and Board membership - but I receive no notices from Tesla. I bought via my online broker (I'm in Canada).

Does anyone know how to "register" with Tesla for such official notices and reports?

Thanks.

Go to the Tesla Inc. web site and register there. I get what I need. Sometimes stuff appears in my e-mail, but that could be because of Schwab, our broker, or other subscriptions. Sophisticates here, not me, can guide to official reports (Edgar?) and filings for SEC, etc.

 

[schonelucht]

...so, regarding Puerto Rico, he also said one of the two lines was being used for training and was probably not going at full speed.

Even if you apply a 90%(!) discount, that's still enough cells to cover the few Model 3's and TE for the year. I fear the guy is either a fantast or has way to little information for us to build a coherent story from. Anyway, we should not worry about cells. Panasonic was ahead of the curve in October last year and there is no reason to assume they got behind at some point. Pack production is where it is at, but it seems Tesla is starting to get a handle on the issue. Production wise I am not interested in/worry about volume anymore. The next targets that interest me are costs per unit. Some of the comes automatically from higher volume, but I believe Tesla also still has a lot of work on the per unit costs.

 

[sundaymorning]

Germanys Gov Auto Administration works on incentives for Gas and EV trucks/semis.

For EV's:

• Between 7,5 and 15 tons - € 8k
• 15 tons or more - € 40k

Its planned to get this through parliament in July. As before they design incentives that cannot be received as these cars and trucks are almost not available and play later surprised that the budget is kind off untouched.

However, once the Semi is in production that would be a home run for Tesla Semi in Germany.

Neue Förderung: 40.000 Euro für einen neuen Elekto-Laster

Extra time needed to design an undetectable cheat device? I kid..

 

[defc0n]

Source: comment section at electrek, fellow in Reno who is trying not to expose his multiple Gigafactory sources. You decide how credible it is, but for me the numbers matched up with certain other numbers I'd heard long ago, so it makes sense to me.

He has no idea about the financing, and Puerto Rico does have financing issues, so it's quite possible that the revenue won't be booked this year even if the installs are done this year.

Puerto Rico is insolvent and is unable to pay its current debt.

 

[waterloo42]

Daimler postpones the launch of the EQ SUV 6 months to June 2019

Daimler-Chef Dieter Zetsche muss fünf Probleme gleichzeitig lösen

Daimler denies the Handelsblatt report and says they are on target and there are no delays. But then says "... a spokesman at Daimler’s Stuttgart headquarters said it has not yet specified a launch date for the EQC model."

Daimler says electric cars on target after report of launch delays

 

[Thumper]

Will the stockholders annual meeting be livestreamed? I don't see any mention on the Tesla investors page.

 

[neroden]

Even if you apply a 90%(!) discount, that's still enough cells to cover the few Model 3's and TE for the year. I fear the guy is either a fantast or has way to little information for us to build a coherent story from. Anyway, we should not worry about cells. Panasonic was ahead of the curve in October last year and there is no reason to assume they got behind at some point. Pack production is where it is at, but it seems Tesla is starting to get a handle on the issue.

This is why I've been suspicious for a while that there's actually a bottleneck in Powerwall/Powerpack *module* or *pack* production, which Tesla hasn't told us about.

 

[neroden]

Puerto Rico is insolvent and is unable to pay its current debt.

Yes, but as far as I can tell none of the installs are actually paid for by Puerto Rico the territory, so that's not relevant. They're mostly paid for by municipalities, not-for-profits, businesses, and individuals. The question is what financing terms *they* need. Tesla has apparently been giving very generous terms to hospitals (install now, pay when you have a chance), and probably less generous terms to individuals, but I don't know.

 

[justvisiting]

Well,

Germanys Gov Auto Administration works on incentives for Gas and EV trucks/semis.

For EV's:

• Between 7,5 and 15 tons - € 8k
• 15 tons or more - € 40k

Its planned to get this through parliament in July. As before they design incentives that cannot be received as these cars and trucks are almost not available and play later surprised that the budget is kind off untouched.

However, once the Semi is in production that would be a home run for Tesla Semi in Germany.

Neue Förderung: 40.000 Euro für einen neuen Elekto-Laster

Well, the electric Actros from Daimler will be ready by then, and also an electric Sprinter. Tesla Semi? Not even a plan for a factory.

 

[Cosmacelf]

If you look at the reality, of Coal use in the US, 2010 vs 2017, it has dropped 1/3 by the people who use it.
Solar UP from 0.13 to 0.775 !! UP over 500%
Nuclear flat
Hydro flat
wind 0.92 UP to 2.35 !! Up over 250%
Geothermal Flat
Nat Gas 25 to 28
Coal DOWN 21 to 14 ( down 33%)
biomass up
Petroleum flat
It matters NOT what the president says, reality overrules
(note we also waste 2/3 of the energy we produce and transportation wastes 79%) (GO EV's!!)
Energy Flow Charts
View attachment 306370

View attachment 306371

What’s the huge rejected energy on electrical generation? Is that mostly just waste heat from boilers?

 

[Intl Professor]

What’s the huge rejected energy on electrical generation? Is that mostly just waste heat from boilers?

If I remember correctly the maximum efficiency of such a chemical transformation would be 50% of the energy consumed on second law considerations only. Other losses would be heat through transmission lines or friction within transformers, etc. 16% above 2nd law doesn't seem too bad. But then its been 60 years since I took a relevant course in nuclear power plant design and got a measly C. B's in thermo and reactor physics, but... too many elections since.

 

[sundaymorning]

Well,

Well, the electric Actros from Daimler will be ready by then, and also an electric Sprinter. Tesla Semi? Not even a plan for a factory.

You must work for Daimler.