General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

United Arab Emirates (UAE) waste management company Bee'ah has reserved 50 Tesla semi trucks, and has purchased Tesla Powerpacks for its headquarters.

Electrek - this morning: Tesla Semi receives another large 50-truck pre-order

 

[Paracelsus]

There has been much discussion on the General Discussion board and particularly on the '200 kWh pack for S & X considering new Roadster' board discussing potential battery configurations to meet Roadster performance claims (most theories seem to be a double-stacked 100 kWh battery). The general consensus seems to be a vehicle that could weigh more than the Model X at this point. This is a call out to @neroden and @ZenMan regarding opportunities for the new Roadster to qualify for the Section 179 Hummer Tax Credit if it is over 6,000 pounds, and a request for opinions on this. I think there is a tremendous new opportunity for Tesla Roadster purchase volume if it could be the first choice of a business vehicle for this credit. While it can't haul a 6' board like the pick-up rules demand, perhaps there is a reason Elon surprised us all during the Semi-Truck unveil when he told us that the new Roadster was a 4-seater. Someone may have to put a business logo on the door, etc, but if there was a way to depreciate the first $25,000 + 60% of the remaining cost of this vehicle the first year.......who wouldn't want one for their business? While it isn't an SUV, van, or pick-up, it is probably one of the only 'cars' that meets the weight criteria. And it could likely fall into some unique loop-holes - like high-speed airport shuttle vehicle?

Thanks to a heads-up by @ZenMan I was able to purchase our Model X prior to September 30th and depreciate a significant amount of the cost of the vehicle cost on our 2017 taxes for my business because our 100D Model X is an SUV weighing slightly over 6,000 pounds and is thus eligible for the 'Hummer Tax Credit'........the same credit that farmers and businesses use to buy pick-ups and SUV's. The combination of being able to deduct about half the cost of the Model X from our 2017 income, and then add a $7,500 tax credit on top while trying to start a new business made a tremendous impact on our lives - Thank you again @ZenMan ! Having the ability to deduct the full cost of the vehicle over a 5 year-period will be even more helpful. It has been amazing how many people I have shared this with that are business owners that were completely unaware of the opportunity to buy a Model X under the Humvee tax law, just as we were. If Tesla does ever become 'demand-limited' on the Model X in the US, I am confident that they could reverse than trend immediately by making the tax deduction/credit information for the Model X more available to potential customers. Until they do so, I am absolutely confident that they have zero demand concerns. To emphasize that point, Ford is now actually using the Section 179 as an advertising gimmick on the web to draw customers to their vehicles. That likely suggests it is Ford that has the Demand Issues:

Ford Section 179 Tax Benefits | Epic Ford Fleet

 

[Brando]

There has been much discussion on the General Discussion board and particularly on the '200 kWh pack for S & X considering new Roadster' board discussing potential battery configurations to meet Roadster performance claims (most theories seem to be a double-stacked 100 kWh battery). The general consensus seems to be a vehicle that could weigh more than the Model X at this point. This is a call out to @neroden and @ZenMan regarding opportunities for the new Roadster to qualify for the Section 179 Hummer Tax Credit if it is over 6,000 pounds, and a request for opinions on this. I think there is a tremendous new opportunity for Tesla Roadster purchase volume if it could be the first choice of a business vehicle for this credit. While it can't haul a 6' board like the pick-up rules demand, perhaps there is a reason Elon surprised us all during the Semi-Truck unveil when he told us that the new Roadster was a 4-seater. Someone may have to put a business logo on the door, etc, but if there was a way to depreciate the first $25,000 + 60% of the remaining cost of this vehicle the first year.......who wouldn't want one for their business? While it isn't an SUV, van, or pick-up, it is probably one of the only 'cars' that meets the weight criteria. And it could likely fall into some unique loop-holes - like high-speed airport shuttle vehicle?

Thanks to a heads-up by @ZenMan I was able to purchase our Model X prior to September 30th and depreciate a significant amount of the cost of the vehicle cost on our 2017 taxes for my business because our 100D Model X is an SUV weighing slightly over 6,000 pounds and is thus eligible for the 'Hummer Tax Credit'........the same credit that farmers and businesses use to buy pick-ups and SUV's. The combination of being able to deduct about half the cost of the Model X from our 2017 income, and then add a $7,500 tax credit on top while trying to start a new business made a tremendous impact on our lives - Thank you again @ZenMan ! Having the ability to deduct the full cost of the vehicle over a 5 year-period will be even more helpful. It has been amazing how many people I have shared this with that are business owners that were completely unaware of the opportunity to buy a Model X under the Humvee tax law, just as we were. If Tesla does ever become 'demand-limited' on the Model X in the US, I am confident that they could reverse than trend immediately by making the tax deduction/credit information for the Model X more available to potential customers. Until they do so, I am absolutely confident that they have zero demand concerns. To emphasize that point, Ford is now actually using the Section 179 as an advertising gimmick on the web to draw customers to their vehicles. That likely suggests it is Ford that has the Demand Issues:

Ford Section 179 Tax Benefits | Epic Ford Fleet

Business decisions based on tax loopholes [why was this loophole created??] is what makes America great.
Equality, fairness, rule of law ... not so much.

Speaking of equality, fairness and rules - everyone pays the same price. Where did Elon get that idea from?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

First, LA apartment owners currently don't have a problem luring new renters...

I don't believe apartment-dwellers will find EVs attractive. They'll first have to find an available charging station (that likely won't be at their front door), then move the car to another spot (that might be hard to find) after it's been charged. They'll be discouraged after a few iterations of that kind of activity and will recommend that their apartment friends stick with ICE.

Those who live in a home with a garage where they can plug in and charge overnight are a different story and what most of us expect. My EV will live that kind of life. It will likely never see a Supercharger because I'll use my ICE for long distance trips.

In the short-term, I think you are correct that the inconvenience of charging one's car when the driver doesn't have a designated charging spot (like a garage), will deter some EV sales.

In the long-term, I think you are likely to be wrong in your prediction, for the following reasons:

Most apartment dwellers who park on the street live in urban areas. A lot of those people, some of whom I know personally, have decided to forego automobile ownership entirely. They rely on Zipcar if they need a vehicle on a particular day, or use Uber or Lyft if they need a quick ride somewhere.

It's also only a matter of time before self-driving cars become a reality. Once this happens, vehicles will be able to park themselves, charge themselves, and be summoned upon request when the owner or customer needs the vehicle.

Based on these 2 factors, I believe that people living in apartments will simply subscribe to car sharing services where they can summon a car upon request (using a voice assistant like Google, Alexa, or Siri). All they need to say is something like "Alexa, I need to go from A to B, get me a car at T time", and whatever service the person subscribes to will dispatch the vehicle to their door. The customer won't have to worry about the charge, or finding a charge spot, because the system will know which cars in the network have enough charge, and the cars will park and charge themselves.

Basically, I think people who disbelieve that EVs can be practical in urban areas, should think about usage models beyond what is available today.

 

[Paracelsus]

Business decisions based on tax loopholes [why was this loophole created??] is what makes America great.
Equality, fairness, rule of law ... not so much.

Speaking of equality, fairness and rules - everyone pays the same price. Where did Elon get that idea from?

Personally I think the Humvee tax credit is still offered-and will continue to be offered-for years to come - because big, heavy, vehicles that sometimes require an additional incentive to purchase are the only markets where Ford, GM, and Dodge still have dominance in the US. I see this as a perpetual extension of the Big Auto Bailout - and it will likely continue until these companies change with the times, or go under IMHO. So while we know the $7,500 EV tax credit is really designed to stick it to Tesla/EV's as Elon has mentioned many times, I have absolutely no problem with Tesla gaining market share from Ford, GM, and Dodge in the >6,000 lb vehicle market at the same 'expense' that everyone else is already paying to prop up Detroit. Give it to 'em.

Yes, everyone pays the same price.........to continue to bailout those deemed 'Too Big to Fail' under the last two administrations. That includes Detroit and Wall Street. I have enjoyed watching Tesla continue to make gains on Detroit. And in 2018 I am looking forward to Tesla sticking it to Hedge Fund Managers and Shorts once again. Because Tesla is Too Awesome to Fail. On that note, Elon just surpassed 18,000,000 followers on Twitter on Friday. It wasn't that long ago on this board that we were excited to see him surpass 10,000,000. Last year @ValueAnalyst predicted Elon reaching 20,000,000 by the end of 2017 - a prediction that ended up being much closer than many imagined at the time. Nice call!

 

[HG Wells]

This is highly unlikely, unless you need the ICE because it's bigger, for long distance trips. Once you start driving a Tesla, you won't want to drive anything else.

Even a Leaf (2013) will limit your ICE use.
We currently have a Sierra (truck), a RAV4, a Impala, and a LEAF. The leaf gets 90% of our mileage. We have to put gas stabilizer in all the other vehicles.

When our model three arrives, we will get rid of everything except the truck.

 

[kbM3]

Could we add these sedans to the list?
Audi A4, Cadillac CTS, Lexus ES 350, Acura TLX, Benz C Class
Not sure of the amounts these models sold.

and used shorter range electrics may get cheaper??

The Cadillac bmw 3 series equivalent is actually the ATS.

 

[Zaxxon]

Tesla is about to suffer the same fate as Ford.

The logic is unassailable.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Tesla is about to suffer the same fate as Ford.

The logic is unassailable.

Oh noes!

By 1961, 53 years after launching the Model T, Ford had fallen all the way down to 29% market share. I will be so sad if, in 2070 (53 years after launching the Model 3),Tesla’s market share has fallen to 29%. Sell! Sell!! Sell!!!

 

[Starno]

Would be nice to have more infos on the progress Tesla is making around self driving tech, and even AI in general.

 

[mongo]

There has been much discussion on the General Discussion board and particularly on the '200 kWh pack for S & X considering new Roadster' board discussing potential battery configurations to meet Roadster performance claims (most theories seem to be a double-stacked 100 kWh battery). The general consensus seems to be a vehicle that could weigh more than the Model X at this point. This is a call out to @neroden and @ZenMan regarding opportunities for the new Roadster to qualify for the Section 179 Hummer Tax Credit if it is over 6,000 pounds, and a request for opinions on this. I think there is a tremendous new opportunity for Tesla Roadster purchase volume if it could be the first choice of a business vehicle for this credit. While it can't haul a 6' board like the pick-up rules demand, perhaps there is a reason Elon surprised us all during the Semi-Truck unveil when he told us that the new Roadster was a 4-seater. Someone may have to put a business logo on the door, etc, but if there was a way to depreciate the first $25,000 + 60% of the remaining cost of this vehicle the first year.......who wouldn't want one for their business? While it isn't an SUV, van, or pick-up, it is probably one of the only 'cars' that meets the weight criteria. And it could likely fall into some unique loop-holes - like high-speed airport shuttle vehicle?

Thanks to a heads-up by @ZenMan I was able to purchase our Model X prior to September 30th and depreciate a significant amount of the cost of the vehicle cost on our 2017 taxes for my business because our 100D Model X is an SUV weighing slightly over 6,000 pounds and is thus eligible for the 'Hummer Tax Credit'........the same credit that farmers and businesses use to buy pick-ups and SUV's. The combination of being able to deduct about half the cost of the Model X from our 2017 income, and then add a $7,500 tax credit on top while trying to start a new business made a tremendous impact on our lives - Thank you again @ZenMan ! Having the ability to deduct the full cost of the vehicle over a 5 year-period will be even more helpful. It has been amazing how many people I have shared this with that are business owners that were completely unaware of the opportunity to buy a Model X under the Humvee tax law, just as we were. If Tesla does ever become 'demand-limited' on the Model X in the US, I am confident that they could reverse than trend immediately by making the tax deduction/credit information for the Model X more available to potential customers. Until they do so, I am absolutely confident that they have zero demand concerns. To emphasize that point, Ford is now actually using the Section 179 as an advertising gimmick on the web to draw customers to their vehicles. That likely suggests it is Ford that has the Demand Issues:

Ford Section 179 Tax Benefits | Epic Ford Fleet

Couple points:
It's not a tax credit, it's an accelerated business depreciation deduction. Instead of the standard 5 year depreciation schedule, you can claim an additional 25k the first year. There is no free lunch in that the business spent the money on the vehicle (an expense) so has less net profit. Also, the percentage of non business use is excluded. And the difference between the adjusted basis and sales prices comes back as income if the vehicle is eventually sold. One other thing is that if you are doing depreciation, you don't get to claim the mileage rate for use (it includes depreciation). Can claim supercharger fees though...

The criteria for 179 is GVWR not curb weight. The X100D has a curb weight of 5,421 and GVWR of 6,658. So a load capacity of 1,237 lbs. Guessing the load capacity of Roadster will be less, but curb may be more due to additional battery capacity and third motor/inverter.

 

[dc_h]

Just got back from a week in Cologne. In all my trips there over the past few years, I have only ever seen 2 Model S. Lots of Fords, Toyota, KIA, Hyundai, Fiats, Volvos and even saw 2 Jeep Grand Cherokees this trip. But the majority are Mercedes, BMW and Audi, and as you say with the expensive cars the German brands dominated.

Can't speak for anywhere else in Germany, but in Cologne parking is a real problem so I saw a lot of tiny Smart cars and Fiats that park facing in to the curb where others would parallel park. Lots of taxis which a few were Priuses but overwhelmingly they were almost all Mercedes. Germany is going to be a tough nut to crack into for the high end. The Model 3 and the Y may be game changers there though.

Last spring in Munich I saw 1 Tesla model S. The mix of cars was Mercedes, VW, BMW but also some Fiats and Opel and Ford etc. German cars seemed like at least 60%

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Didn't see this posted, but it seems we don't need to worry about where Tesla gets their cobalt: Tesla Has Found Yet Another Safe Haven For Cobalt Mining

 

[jelloslug]

Even a Leaf (2013) will limit your ICE use.
We currently have a Sierra (truck), a RAV4, a Impala, and a LEAF. The leaf gets 90% of our mileage. We have to put gas stabilizer in all the other vehicles.

When our model three arrives, we will get rid of everything except the truck.

Unless you use the truck more than once a month, you would probably be better off renting a truck when you need it.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Personally I think the Humvee tax credit is still offered-and will continue to be offered-for years to come - because big, heavy, vehicles that sometimes require an additional incentive to purchase are the only markets where Ford, GM, and Dodge still have dominance in the US. I see this as a perpetual extension of the Big Auto Bailout - and it will likely continue until these companies change with the times, or go under IMHO. So while we know the $7,500 EV tax credit is really designed to stick it to Tesla/EV's as Elon has mentioned many times, I have absolutely no problem with Tesla gaining market share from Ford, GM, and Dodge in the >6,000 lb vehicle market at the same 'expense' that everyone else is already paying to prop up Detroit. Give it to 'em.

Yes, everyone pays the same price.........to continue to bailout those deemed 'Too Big to Fail' under the last two administrations. That includes Detroit and Wall Street. I have enjoyed watching Tesla continue to make gains on Detroit. And in 2018 I am looking forward to Tesla sticking it to Hedge Fund Managers and Shorts once again. Because Tesla is Too Awesome to Fail. On that note, Elon just surpassed 18,000,000 followers on Twitter on Friday. It wasn't that long ago on this board that we were excited to see him surpass 10,000,000. Last year @ValueAnalyst predicted Elon reaching 20,000,000 by the end of 2017 - a prediction that ended up being much closer than many imagined at the time. Nice call!

It’s like an S curve lots of exciting announcements ahead to boost it even further: Falcon Heavy launch, FSD demo, Gigafactory announcements, Model Y and pickup reveals, more Boring tunnels, and of course, last but not least, the upcoming stormy weather in Shortville.

50+ million by the end of 2018 is likely.

 

[Starno]

50+ million by the end of 2018 is likely.

per share ? A bit too much isn't it ?

 

[Wenche]

A new government is settled in Norway today. The "Venstre", a conservative green party, is joining the government, and one of the settlement agreements is that the insentives of electric cars will last for another 4 years. In addition, if not all cars sold in Norway by 2025, are Zero emissions, there will be additional taxes on fossil fuels.

 

[gtrplyr1]

FWIW, I’m in a long cue to get into the tesla store in century city ca (los angeles). I believe this is the first location to get a model 3 in the showroom! I’ve seen plenty of videos but this is my first chance to actually sit inside one !!! Very excited.

 

[Menifeer]

This is highly unlikely, unless you need the ICE because it's bigger, for long distance trips. Once you start driving a Tesla, you won't want to drive anything else.

I'm sure that I'll love driving the EV, but my ICE is large enough to carry me, many people and cargo in comfort. I can use it and plan a route of my choice, not one that meets the needs of my vehicle. I also am not interested in spending hours waiting for a refuel.

One other consideration. If my ICE vehicle needs to see a doctor while I'm on a trip, it can be serviced in lots of places. If something happens to my M3 that can't be handled by a Ranger, I might be severely inconvenienced and my bank account may be in for a big towing cost surprise. Look at the Service Center map. There are places in the U.S. that are hundreds and hundreds of miles from a Center.

 

[Thumper]

If you are traveling away from large cities, many ICE breakdowns will cause significant inconvenience. As a kid, I remember traveling across Nebraska when we blew a water pump. We had to wait for one to be shipped from Grand Island the next day before we could even initiate the repair. Don't fool yourself that an ICE insures rapid repair.