General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Ovulation]

And Chinese will want leather.

Well that is of course the cliche, that the Chinese suffer no hippies

In general, if you can learn something from president Trump than it is: be more unapologetic. If you are not, you end up like the spineless guys at Google who let a multi-billion military contract slip out of their hands because some workers have ideas.

 

[larmor]

Anyone care to discuss the target less than $100 per kilowatt-hour for battery production, mentioned in the meeting...

 

[hockeythug]

Marketwatch can open a proxy advisory company. How the hell is this journalism?

Tesla investors missed opportunity to hold Elon Musk & Co. accountable

What the hell? Did some of their writers form a group to buy shares and create shareholder proposals?

 

[Mich]

Is there a URL to listen to the meeting. I was sleeping all night...

 

[wnorris]

Is there a URL to listen to the meeting. I was sleeping all night...

This is the only full video I could find. It does have minor comments from Ben Sullins.

 

[JRP3]

I disagree.

There will be significant demand for leather for the foreseeable future.

And Chinese will want leather.

I think being the most futuristic car available will overcome that desire. Choice between outdated ICE with leather or Model 3 without, who do you think wins?

 

[MartinAustin]

Europe gigafactory announcement maybe by the end of year. Ultimately 10-12 gigafactories.

I thought this was pretty significant.

Let's say there are 11 factories and they're each producing 500,000 cars per year. That means Tesla will sell 5.5million cars/year.

I think I heard Elon speculate (a while back) that Fremont could perhaps be optimised to produce a million cars a year. If 11 factories produced 750,000 cars per year that is 8,250,000 Tesla cars per year.

 

[avoigt]

Very good meeting. No pushed timelines or unclear statements. Well, done team!

I found some points in particular interesting and positive:

• Build a 3rd assembly line in just 2 weeks and its working already - Thats an order of magnitude better and unprecedented
• Confirmed costs of batteries down to $100 , at the pack level in 2 years- This is a new best in class
• Tier 1 is now also Tesla - The depth of producing and owning the value chain continues which drives the profit further up
• Energy storage business to achieve margins in the high 20th if not more - TE setup for success
• Improvements in car batteries energy density of 30-40%, 400 miles range - My ICE car does not make 400 miles!
• Injury rate below 6% industry average and aiming for 50% below - in a car production ramp that is unprecedented
• Storage growth: Each incremental year will be as much as all previous years together - TE may outpace car growth
• Next year more Battery shipped than ROW EVs combined - IOW Tesla is the EV producer that is larger than all others together
• China GF officially confirmed as well as Europe - Integration of Battery production and Assembly/Paint shop ect. is a new level
• Plan to close loop of recycled material into the GF - Thats an industry first once again in the auto industry
• Confident to bring insurance costs of M3 20-30% lower than equivalent cars - Today its expensive to insure a Tesla, TCO will shrink
• Model 3 order to delivery from now on in the US 3-4 months - No wait, less cancellations more customer satisfaction
• M3 test drives end of June - This will drive additional orders in and make/keep the US market as the cash cow
• Might be able to do same day body repair - no other auto maker can offer this

Normally I add some negatives that I found but either they are not visible to me, I am too optimistic or they do not appear....

Some fun moments:

• I do have sympathy for Peta but that gear shift part was hilarious
• When Elon explained why Lidar is no good he lost 100% of the audience. His brain just works on a different level..
• Elon admitted that Elon time is not realistic right after he has given tons of concrete due dates and timelines to the audience

 

[avoigt]

Is there a URL to listen to the meeting. I was sleeping all night...

You tube:

 

[RobStark]

I think being the most futuristic car available will overcome that desire. Choice between outdated ICE with leather or Model 3 without, who do you think wins?

Mission E wins.

Etron wins

Bryton wins.

Future EV product planners that listen to customer and don't dictate to customer.

I trust at the end of the day Musk will pivot. He is not an ideologue.

Interior is an easy fix.

 

[RobStark]

• Model 3 order to delivery from now on in the US 3-4 months - No wait, less cancellations more customer satisfaction

For RWD LR PuP configuration.

 

[bambam4171]

Anyone care to discuss the target less than $100 per kilowatt-hour for battery production, mentioned in the meeting...

At a time where other EV manufacturers are shooting for sub $180kw/h this is indeed one of the most important news of the shareholder meeting. I can see other manufacturers delaying product launches because of this or only producing compliance cars because they have no way of competing with Tesla pricing and have to sell at loss.

 

[jeewee3000]

Improvements in car batteries energy density of 30-40%, 400 miles range - My ICE car does not make 400 miles!

Come again? What ICE do you own, if I may ask?

I have a very cheap 2016 Skoda Octavia that gets 550 miles (900 km) out of a tank of diesel easily.

Before that I had a 1996 Fiat Punto that could do 400 miles per tank of petrol.

Of course I am talking European cars. Maybe you are talking about an all-american "gas guzzler"? (I'm not attacking, I'm just really taken aback by your comment.)

 

[avoigt]

Come again? What ICE do you own, if I may ask?

I have a very cheap 2016 Skoda Octavia that gets 550 miles (900 km) out of a tank of diesel easily.

Before that I had a 1996 Fiat Punto that could do 400 miles per tank of petrol.

Of course I am talking European cars. Maybe you are talking about an all-american "gas guzzler"? (I'm not attacking, I'm just really taken aback by your comment.)

Porsche

 

[jeewee3000]

Porsche

I see. Performance vehicles.

 

[RobStark]

Of course I am talking European cars. Maybe you are talking about an all-american "gas guzzler"? (I'm not attacking, I'm just really taken aback by your comment.)

The most popular sedan in America sold to retail customers (not rental or corporate fleets) is the midsize Honda Accord.

The 2.0T gets 22 MPG city and 32 highway. With a 14.8 gallon tank. You don't want to get down to the last mL.

If you use 13 gallons you would need to average 30.76 mpg to get to 400 miles.

In other words driving 60 mph on the highway in good weather.

 

[winfield100]

Me too.

this may actually be doable. If you Gen-engineer a, say, potato or tomato plant and perhaps sweet peas, and insert genes for meat fibers, you could have a "Steak Bush" where you have a "steak" inside a pod that grows in the back yard. The idea has been around for at least 50 years. I'm surprised no one has come up with something similar yet

 

[Mader Levap]

Just want to share what as to what I think is likely the SpaceX option package will be: A submarine edition of the car.

Submarines have nothing to do with SpaceX whatsoever. I interpret it as having acceleration similar to their rockets, at least momentairly.

 

[22522]

Very good meeting.
[*]When Elon explained why Lidar is no good he lost 100% of the audience. His brain just works on a different level..
[/LIST]

He could improve his explainantions if there were more time and he deemed it appropriate. Let's give it a try:

1) LIDAR can't read road signs, so it is not the ultimate solution. Vision has to work.
2) Today's LIDAR is reflected by fog. A way to think about reflections is to recall radios with the telescoping antennas. Reception (and reflection) only happen if the electrons in your antenna can run far enough to mimic the electrons in the transmitting antenna. Water droplets in fog are as big as the wavelengths used in today's LIDAR. The electrons in the droplet can move far enough to mimic the source, or reflect. Elon called out 4mm because that is longer than most naturally occurring conductive particles (water droplets). It does not get reflected back to you.
3) Elon might be hinting at active illumination at 4mm.

He likely said 4 mm instead of microwave to keep from frightening the audience.

4-millimeter band - Wikipedia

 

[winfield100]

@neroden , Governor Rosello was communicating with Elon via Twitter last year about bringing Tesla to the island: https://www.inverse.com/article/455...-the-staggering-scale-of-puerto-rico-projects

As you likely recall, another Tesla energy deal was initiated via Twitter with for the southern Australia project. I obviously don’t know for sure if that’s a similar situation here, but a decentralized grid project(s) spanning the island would seem to make sense, which I believe what Fred is also getting at.

And yes, if true, should likely have central government financing involved. Tesla working to cut separate deals with 10,000 different entities doesn’t make sense to me.

Alas, no one still seems to really know.

I just wish there had been more than passing allusions to VPP's (Virtual power plants), along the lines of networking powerwalls into a scalable multi megawatt ?gigawatt? plant