General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[EnzoXYZ]

I happened to have a back and forth conversation a few days ago with someone who worked on the Cummins Aeos truck. As you might expect, he was quite skeptical about Tesla’s claims about semi performance—particularly about what it would have to weigh for 500+ mile range. And, given my obvious lack of tolerance of what I perceive to be bullshit from others, you can probably imagine how our conversation ended up.

(And yes, I do currently believe all of Tesla’s claims on semi specs.)

I vehemently stated that diesel is climbing into its death bed at this time. He said electric trucks are literally 20+ years from being viable. That coming from someone that worked on a somewhat comparable electric truck, I very much found that claim fascinating from someone in their positon/experience.

Take this all for what you wish to make of it I suppose.

I have heard form higher level up executives the challenge Cumins is having. They aren’t saying Tesla is BS like what Mercedes said. They sure know EV is the future and working hard at it. It’s the battery they have issues with. Surprise surprise!

 

[BozieBeMe2]

Marketwatch can open a proxy advisory company. How the hell is this journalism?

Tesla investors missed opportunity to hold Elon Musk & Co. accountable

Ever notice how it is when some one has effectively become successful, that they seem to attract these dingle berries?
These dingle berries cannot do what the successful have done but they sure can tell them how it should have been done!

 

[winfield100]

@neroden , Governor Rosello was communicating with Elon via Twitter last year about bringing Tesla to the island: Tesla Solar: Elon Musk Reveals the Staggering Scale of Puerto Rico Projects | Inverse

As you likely recall, another Tesla energy deal was initiated via Twitter with for the southern Australia project. I obviously don’t know for sure if that’s a similar situation here, but a decentralized grid project(s) spanning the island would seem to make sense, which I believe what Fred is also getting at.

And yes, if true, should likely have central government financing involved. Tesla working to cut separate deals with 10,000 different entities doesn’t make sense to me.

Alas, no one still seems to really know.

there was a small mention of VPP's in Australia, but i may have missed mention of Puerto Rico

 

[MP3Mike]

I'm confused why they need three lines if they are running three shifts. I doubt that the paint shop will ramp like Elon projects.

But if they can get anywhere near cash flow nuetral they have time to figure it out.

I suppose they are planning on the model Y greatly reducing model 3 demand. Otherwise I don't know where they plan to build the model Y.

The Model Y is 2 years out, by then the Model 3 will already be at 10,000/week. The Model Y, like the Semi will have to be made somewhere else. Maybe at/near Gigafactory 1. (They have plenty of land to build more buildings.) Or maybe at a abandoned factory in Michigan that will likely happen "soon".

 

[Causalien]

Sounded Australian to me.

You are right. Perth.

I heard "Schon" instead of "sure" when she said it, which confused my language filter a bit between Germanic based language and English. Once that's sorted out, yeah. Aussie accent.

 

[MP3Mike]

Elon tweet: Model 3 is now the best-selling mid-sized premium sedan in the USA

It seems like the BMW 3 Series is taking the brunt of the hit right now.

 

[JRP3]

You are right. Perth.

I heard "Schon" instead of "sure" when she said it, which confused my language filter a bit between Germanic based language and English. Once that's sorted out, yeah. Aussie accent.

Yup, I had to confirm so did some research: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dr-katherine-van-ekert-861b2320

 

[TradingInvest]

Marketwatch can open a proxy advisory company. How the hell is this journalism?

https://web.archive.org/web/2018060...y-to-hold-elon-musk-co-accountable-2018-06-05

We need Pravduh to control this.

 

[dc_h]

Sooo, is anyone else concerned that they're using three general assembly lines to get to 5000/week? What worries me is the possibility that they'll need six general assembly lines to get to 10000/week. This would probably permanently reduce margins on Model 3, even if the other lines (body, paint, battery modules, etc.) don't need to be sextuplicated.

No.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Elon tweet: Model 3 is now the best-selling mid-sized premium sedan in the USA


View attachment 307049

It seems like the BMW 3 Series is taking the brunt of the hit right now.

Audi, Mercedes, and Lexus seem pretty non-plussed. They have loyal customers and that is something to be respected and admired.

BMW on the other hand. I wouldn't want to be BMW right now, that's for sure.

 

[MP3Mike]

Audi, Mercedes, and Lexus seem pretty non-plussed. They have loyal customers and that is something to be respected and admired.

My guess is that Mercedes will be next to drop.

And the part that I don't think that graph shows is that the Model 3 is expanding the mid-sized premium sedan market in the USA. So it is hurting other markets/car lines as well.

 

[RobStark]

Makes more sense to limit options for production. No other leather is used in the production, no good reason to, so eliminate it. No one is going to not buy the car because of a missing outdated material for the steering wheel.

There are no good alternatives.

No leather, no alcantara, no grab handles etc etc etc. Limited color choice.

Tesla has already lost customers. It has so much more demand than supply it hasn't affected sales. Yet.

At some point when there are decent alternatives you begin to lose significant number of customers.

This is driving sales to Tesla customizers like T Sportsline and Unplugged Performance.

 

[JRP3]

At some point when there are decent alternatives you begin to lose significant number of customers.

I think as time goes on there will be fewer and fewer people who prefer leather so it won't matter.

 

[Zaxxon]

I think as time goes on there will be fewer and fewer people who prefer leather so it won't matter.

This.

 

[Electroman]

Marketwatch can open a proxy advisory company. How the hell is this journalism?

https://web.archive.org/web/2018060...y-to-hold-elon-musk-co-accountable-2018-06-05

I loved the reference to whoppers.

Musk said Tesla will “quite likely” be building 5,000 Model 3 cars a week by the end of the month; that it will soon build another gigafactory in Shanghai, China, one in Europe and may eventually have 10-12 gigafactories worldwide; that Tesla will see a GAAP net profit and be cash-flow positive in the third quarter; that the company had no need to raise additional capital this year; and that it would launch its Model Y in the first half of 2020, to name a few potential whoppers.

 

[RobStark]

I think as time goes on there will be fewer and fewer people who prefer leather so it won't matter.

I disagree.

There will be significant demand for leather for the foreseeable future.

And Chinese will want leather.

 

[jelloslug]

I relistened to that part. The question was about production automation. Elon: "I think we were just over confident about the degree of automation that was possible. We did rely quite a bit on tier one manufacturing automation integrators. And a couple of those things really didn't work out at all. And now we're really going to internalize all tier 1 manufacturing systems at Tesla. So we'll have a lot of suppliers, but they'll be at the tier 2 and tier 3 level."

So yeah, if you take his last sentence in isolation, it means one thing, but you can't do that. He is talking about manufacturing automation integrators, not generic suppliers.

Honda does that (in regards to plant automation) and Ford does it to some extent.

 

[sundaymorning]

I find it interesting that Tesla already has GF partners in Shanghai already lined up and will make announcements about partnerships when the time is ripe.

 

[Intl Professor]

Elon's answer to AP question didn't leave me filled with confidence. There are two parallel paths for AP development, a simple one and a really complicated one. He doesn't think the complicated one is working well. He tested the simple one last month, on ramp to off ramp, and it worked OK, expects to release that one in 2 months.

Just a wild guess, the complicated one is probably an "unguided" neural net; the simpler one is with set boundaries--like avoid hitting a parked car, or boulder, in an otherwise clear lane.

 

[sub]

This may seem a bit self serving but what if someone wants leather? Why should their selection be limited

I wanted a twin turbo v8 in my model X but had no choice but to take the dual electric drive train. Lame.