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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I'm sure that I'll love driving the EV, but my ICE is large enough to carry me, many people and cargo in comfort. I can use it and plan a route of my choice, not one that meets the needs of my vehicle. I also am not interested in spending hours waiting for a refuel.

One other consideration. If my ICE vehicle needs to see a doctor while I'm on a trip, it can be serviced in lots of places. If something happens to my M3 that can't be handled by a Ranger, I might be severely inconvenienced and my bank account may be in for a big towing cost surprise. Look at the Service Center map. There are places in the U.S. that are hundreds and hundreds of miles from a Center.
There are indeed not enough service centers.

But your first complaint is nonsense. My Model S is almost certainly more spacious than your ICE, unless you have a full size van, and probably carries more cargo in comfort. And I certainly can plan a route of my choice. And I have no intersest in spending hours detouring to find a gas station or waiting in line at a gas station.
 
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Yeah, this one has been a mystery. Those of us that have been around for several years where expecting TE to have had a major ramp and become a significant portion of the income a year ago (based on Elon's past statements). At this point I have thrown my hands up into the air and just say that I have no clue when it will contribute at least 5-10 Billion in sales.
Obviously the bottlenecks are (a) battery pack production (Powerwalls/Powerpacks) and (b) solar roof production, both of which still seem to have serious bottlenecks. In the meantime, we can't figure out how well they're doing from the financials because it's buried inside the very confusing SolarCity numbers.
 
The German problem is lignite, the worst, nastiest, most pollluting form of coal. Merkel is subsidizing the lignite strip mines and lignite burning plants because "jobs" (specifically, jobs in "swingy" districts which might vote for or against her)... it's gross.

We don't use lignite in the US. Germany is getting rid of hard coal just like we are. But lignite is slightly cheaper (partly because of the environmentally dreadful strip-mining) so the hard coal is going away before the lignite, even though this is precisely backwards environmentally.

They're destroying untouched primeval forest for lignite strip-mining -- you can google this. It is really, really gross.
 
Not sure how this pertains to the point I was making, which was Tesla has made WAY more UPGRADES to their initial prototype vehicles then the "downgrade" which is alcantragate.
The common element is communications.

Your point goes more to quality or ongoing customer service issue, not related imo.
Fair point. Ongoing customer service at Tesla is kind of broken... and I think it's the communications which is broken, since every time I actually reach the right person, I seem to get a good response.


But with other service issues, it's often been weeks of yelling at people and trying different phone numbers before I get to the right person -- nobody in Tesla knows how to contact anyone else or who they're supposed to contact. It's terrible. Once I get the right person, i'ts OK.

I feel like if I could actually find the programmers responsible for the media player, I could get this fixed. They are a black hole, however: nobody at Tesla seems to know who they are or how to communicate with them, and messages never come back from them. Somehow it's been impossible for *hundreds* of us to find the right person with respect to the USB music, which indicates broken communications.

The alcantara thing is, again, simply a matter of communications. I think the headliner change per se is totally legit and reasonable, but they failed to *communicate* it well -- it wasn't even communicated to their frontline sales and service people.

Here's another one. Tesla needs a Service Center in Syracuse, NY. Not Rochester. Syracuse. Everyone in upstate NY knows this: it's facts of upstate NY geography. It is, however, totally impossible to actually contact the team which decides where to put service centers, who live in some sort of isolated bubble in California into which no information goes in; nobody I've reached at Tesla appears to even know how to contact them and get a response. Communications, again.
 
There are indeed not enough service centers.

But your first complaint is nonsense. My Model S is almost certainly more spacious than your ICE, unless you have a full size van, and probably carries more cargo in comfort. And I certainly can plan a route of my choice. And I have no intersest in spending hours detouring to find a gas station or waiting in line at a gas station.
Nonsense? Really?

My ICE IS a van. It seats six in comfort and eight total. It has lots of space to carry all the stuff I tend to take with me. A Model X would be a good replacement, but the price differential between it and mainstream vans makes no sense to me.

I've never had trouble finding a gas station. While on the road, if I close my eyes and coast to a stop, I'll likely be parked next to a pump. :) After I put the nozzle in the filler, I barely have time to wash the windows before the tank is filled. I doubt even the biggest supporters of EVs (and I'm one) find your claim re: refueling valid.
 
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Nonsense? Really?

My ICE IS a van. It seats six in comfort and eight total. It has lots of space to carry all the stuff I tend to take with me. A Model X would be a good replacement

This is like saying that an Acura MDX is a good replacement for a Honda Odyssey. It’s not.

Vans are much better than midsize crossovers in terms of usable volume.

I've never had trouble finding a gas station. While on the road, if I close my eyes and coast to a stop, I'll likely be parked next to a pump. :) After I put the nozzle in the filler, I barely have time to wash the windows before the tank is filled.

This is true today, but 5-10 years into the future, DC fast charging is likely to be much faster and widespread that it is today.


I doubt even the biggest supporters of EVs (and I'm one) find your claim re: refueling valid.

It would depend on how many fuel stops a person makes in a year. Why do I get the sense that you actually don’t support EVs at all?
 
Nonsense? Really?

My ICE IS a van. It seats six in comfort and eight total. It has lots of space to carry all the stuff I tend to take with me. A Model X would be a good replacement, but the price differential between it and mainstream vans makes no sense to me.

I've never had trouble finding a gas station. While on the road, if I close my eyes and coast to a stop, I'll likely be parked next to a pump. :) After I put the nozzle in the filler, I barely have time to wash the windows before the tank is filled. I doubt even the biggest supporters of EVs (and I'm one) find your claim re: refueling valid.
This is a first: Van driver admits owning a van.
 
Nonsense? Really?

My ICE IS a van. It seats six in comfort and eight total. It has lots of space to carry all the stuff I tend to take with me. A Model X would be a good replacement, but the price differential between it and mainstream vans makes no sense to me.

I've never had trouble finding a gas station. While on the road, if I close my eyes and coast to a stop, I'll likely be parked next to a pump. :) After I put the nozzle in the filler, I barely have time to wash the windows before the tank is filled. I doubt even the biggest supporters of EVs (and I'm one) find your claim re: refueling valid.

Well, since you asked, yes, it sounds like abject nonsense, with a garnish of FUD.

In no particular order:

With an ICE, one tends to fill up, drive until low, and fill up again. With an EV, one does not do that as a rule. So what’s the impact? About 10%-15%, depending. Meaning that if I have a 1,000-mile trip from Los Angeles to Portland (OR) that I used to drive in ~17 hours end to end in an ICE, it now takes ~19 hours in a Model S. My rule of thumb is 50mph gross time.

Now here are a couple of the differences:

1. I arrive refreshed. I don’t expect you to believe me. When one travels via superchargers (SCs), one stops for 35 minutes here, 20 minutes there, maybe an hour over there if a longer leg is next. It’s a healthier way to travel. Add to that the net effect of AP (TACC and Autosteer (AS), and the refreshment increases, as one’s mindset changes from active to more supervisory. For the sake of brevity, you’ll have to take some of this on faith until you Turo an S/X for a long weekend and see for yourself.

2. That 1,000-mile trip cost me zero in fuel. As does the return trip. Zero (practical) brake wear, zero oil changes, et cetera.

Which brings me to the next piece of FUD. Service Centers (SvCs). If you take a deer through the front end and windshield in West Texas, you will probably need a tow, which Tesla provides with 500-mile range to the nearest SC, where there will be a loaner waiting for you. However, in practical usage scenarios, there are plenty of SvCs. Remember that you are in a vehicle with 74% fewer moving parts. There ain’t that much to break. I’ve been through 48 states and provinces and have never once been stranded out of range of both Tesla and AAA.

That includes (here’s an edge case rightbackatcha) showing up at an SC in Silverthorne, Colorado (elevation ~9,000’ and a drizzly 37F in late May as I recall. Entire town had been without power for 3 hours. As an aside, today that SC would be flagged in Nav and my route would have automagically changed while I was still in Cheyenne, Wyoming so that I could charge at Denver and Glenwood Springs, thereby bypassing Silverthorne completely. Back then (this was 3-ish years ago), I called Tesla and in 20 minutes they had a flatbed here ready to take me to Glenwood Springs. Fortunately and by luck, the power came back and I didn’t need the tow, but it was that quick to fix the problem.

Point being, with *rare* exception, the existing SC and existing SvC network will serve you just fine.

Next FUD: the cost differential. A new work van can run a few bucks these days. Putting that aside, consider a CPO off-lease Model X in a year or so. It’ll have 30-45K miles, fully warranted to 100K miles, be pretty much indistinguishable from new, and you’ll be able to drive the bejesus out of it for 2-3 years until Tesla’s F-350 Killer is ready and it’s a given there will be a work van variant of that as well.

So there’s some food for thought to help offset the FUD.

And whatever you do, do not test drive a Model X now. A costly choice *that* would be, but your resulting purchase will come with an irrepressible and rather perpetual grin.

So you’ll have that going for you. Which is nice. (Bill Murray voice, Caddyshack)
 
Overview of BEV's sold & delivered in The Netherlands (totals until 31/12/2017).

ff200163a1_Schermafbeelding_2018-01-16_om_10.57.11.jpg

(Don't ask me about the negative sales of one smart last month :confused:)

Just imagine what the Model-3 will do with that table the next two years. :cool:
As I wrote earlier, the Model-3 will kill all other company cars in its price segment and actually also the segment(s) below it.
I predict 5-digit sales number per year in NL (assuming Tesla can allocate enough for The Netherlands).

Year 2017 numbers :
Tesla Model S: 2.085
Tesla Model X: 1.242
Hyundai Ioniq: 959
Volkswagen e-Golf: 949
BMW i3: 863
Renault Zoe: 781
Nissan Leaf: 519
Opel Ampera-e: 228
Kia Soul EV : 75
Volkswagen e-up: 75

Not in this list are the Fiat 500e's imported from the USA in 2017, must be more than 75. They are so popular here that the price to buy them in California has gone up as a result. (A friend of mine imported 20 himself, last December when we visited the USA we had problems to find more at the pricing we used to buy them in for, they have gone up 40+ %).
 
This is true today, but 5-10 years into the future, DC fast charging is likely to be much faster and widespread that it is today.

I look forward to that day. It will be a game-changer.

... Why do I get the sense that you actually don’t support EVs at all?
I'm a yuuge supporter of EV and have been before many on this board were even born.

But my (upcoming) M3 won't match my van for travel comfort, convenience and capability. Just because I'm an EV supporter doesn't mean I have to claim they're always the best choice in today's world.
 
I'm sure that I'll love driving the EV, but my ICE is large enough to carry me, many people and cargo in comfort. I can use it and plan a route of my choice, not one that meets the needs of my vehicle. I also am not interested in spending hours waiting for a refuel.

One other consideration. If my ICE vehicle needs to see a doctor while I'm on a trip, it can be serviced in lots of places. If something happens to my M3 that can't be handled by a Ranger, I might be severely inconvenienced and my bank account may be in for a big towing cost surprise. Look at the Service Center map. There are places in the U.S. that are hundreds and hundreds of miles from a Center.

You might consider flying for long distance trips. That's what I and most other people do. Tesla car owners do not see things as darkly as you. Once you receive your Model 3, I suspect your assessment will greatly improve.
 
Oh man, the slurping alfalfa comments on @va articles are a dumpster fire. I had to toss a couple of bombs. The best thing to do is to toss a couple of facts out and never read the responses. It's really not worth engaging beyond that.

I think it would have been a more useful article if it had included expected cash at end of Q4, Q1 and Q2. That would put some detail into assumption that no near term raise is needed to fund model 3 roll out.

Not that I agree, I think an additional debt raise is fine in Q1 / Q2.
 
I look forward to that day. It will be a game-changer.


I'm a yuuge supporter of EV and have been before many on this board were even born.

But my (upcoming) M3 won't match my van for travel comfort, convenience and capability. Just because I'm an EV supporter doesn't mean I have to claim they're always the best choice in today's world.
Just wait a couple of years. You then can have a MB Sprinter BEV; with that you can carry a dozen people with lots of luggage. There will also be at least a half dozen crossover, minivan including the terminally cute VW which will be built and will be sold in the US too.

If charging infrastructure continues for another year at current development rates Tesla vehicles will be pretty much everywhere in NA, and when adding CCS and CHAdeMO it will be are to find lack of DC Fast an issue. Of course before 2020 there will be a Tesla CCS adapter of some kind for NA use. Destination charging/ L2 already fills every significant space in the 49 US States and nearly everywhere in heavily populated Canada. Before 2020 is out that will be available all over Canada and Alaska too.

Very few people will have a problem today. FWIW, my formerly indispensable CHAdeMO adapter has not been used for nearly two years.

Until now only Tesla has had the commitment. Now there are others. Today in Europe it is almost impossible to find charging unavailable. China now is accessible from the North Korean border to the Vietnamese border, from Shanghai to Lhasa.

Anybody who has a BEV with an EPA rated range of >230 miles can go anywhere without difficulty in NA. Try it before you diss it.

FWIW, three years ago I had to plan long trips and became adept at finding RV parks and the odd welding shop. Last year I drove an S75 from San Francisco on I80 then south to Atlanta. All across Wyoming there are Superchargers. Drive fast enough to risk speeding citations, ignore headwinds, cold weather and snow. You can do it easily.

Really, you're inventing difficulty that really does not exist, unless you really are hauling more than seven people coast to coast.
 
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