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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Everything is relative I guess..


Germany just hit a renewable energy record

Just charge your car when they are paying you to charge:
Germany is producing so much renewable energy it's driving electricity prices below zero

A little more then half as much CO2 per capita compared to US from your link:
List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions - Wikipedia

Country CO2 emissions (kt) in 2015[2] % CO2 emissions by country Emission per capita (t) in 2015[3]
World 36,061,710 100%
23px-Flag_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China.svg.png
China 10,641,789 29.51% 7.7
23px-Flag_of_the_United_States.svg.png
United States 5,172,336 14.34% 16.1
23px-Flag_of_Europe.svg.png
European Union 3,469,671 9.62% 6.9
23px-Flag_of_India.svg.png
India 2,454,968 6.81% 1.9
23px-Flag_of_Russia.svg.png
Russia 1,760,895 4.88% 12.3
23px-Flag_of_Japan.svg.png
Japan 1,252,890 3.47% 9.9
23px-Flag_of_Germany.svg.png
Germany 777,905 2.16% 9.6

I think the point is that Germany appears to be environmentally minded and EVs are better then Diesel no matter what kind coal you burn to get the electricity.

I agree that they should not be shutting down Nuke plants before Coal, but I dont have a clue what the condition of those plants are, maybe they are past their useful life.
I think everyone on this board will agree that the US sucks for CO2 emissions and not a model of clean places to charge EVs. Your original post mentioned there not being cleaner places to charge EVs. I agree with you that Germany is definitely very environmentally minded and is trying to do the right thing by installing a bunch of renewables but my point is that perception and reality is not in line here. If you look at emission per capita Germany is 88% higher than France (almost double!). So I would much rather charge my EV in France.

As far as nuclear in Germany my opinion is people unnecessarily freaked out after the Fukushima disaster and now the environment is suffering. Rather than retiring coal plants, THEN retiring nuke plants Germany is trying to do both at once.
"Nuclear facilities do not emit greenhouse gasses, but the German government believes they pose too high a risk of an environmental disaster and plan to phase them out by 2022."
"The figures stood in contrast with Germany's image as a front-runner in the transition towards clean energy"
German CO2 emissions up despite 'energy transition'
 
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That doesn't explain why rich people aren't buying Tesla's. There are a lot is rich people in Germany and there are but S class and 7 series and A8s about 20:1 vs Tesla's where as in America Tesla beats those brands combined. And I would get it if Germany didn't seem to be so progressive when it comes to the environment. Is there anything more environmentally friendly then a Tesla charging during Germany's solar duck curve? Are model S's more expensive in the first year then an S class or 7 series in Germany? The only thing that makes beams loyalty and really just the love of powerful German motor that makes lots of noise and rattles your bones.

I am with you that Germany is lagging behind in terms of EVs.

Environmental friendliness is a buying factor that is very often considered after the cost factor is assessed as acceptable versus an ICE car. Only a limited amount of consumer is willing to pay a large premium but luckily they are around and will continue to buy.

If you want too understand the root causes for the small amount of EVs in Germany as I understand them go back to my previous mail where I listed them.

I am afraid but there is no simple answer to that issue and yes, many of the points or better most will apply to other countries too but thats not what matters. The unique weighting of the points leads to a very slow adoption of EVs in Germany. That weighing is special and not to compare to other countries. Most of that issues can be tracked back to the larger German Automakers though.

This is not about finding the one point that differentiates German to other countries and is the one explanation why people are waiting.

Nevertheless I am not worried as I expect the German market to switch once more good affordable EVs are available. For that reason it would be material to get the M3 production up to speed and deliveries to Europe asap to continue building the brand and capture the market share.

My humble view and other many look at it differently...
 
Just have to mention I had to work very hard to keep my Model S at a lifetime, over course of 80,000 miles , at only 304 wh/mile. In my Model 3, I just did 160 miles normal freeway speeds with quite a lot of moderate elevation changes using a mere 211 wh/mile!! That is super efficient.

That is awesome. My lifetime stat in my Leaf is 4.2 mi/kWh, or approximately 238 Wh/mi. If the Model 3--a bigger, more powerful vehicle with a much heavier battery--can compete with that, i'll be one happy camper.
 
What Tesla's newest affordable electric car has in store for you

Reports like these are going to start coming one after another. This is why companies' stocks always go up during the rollout of a new, exciting product - people get excited and buy the stock. The effect has been delayed for TSLA due to production delays but make no mistake, it's coming now.
 
Sure. Right. In the real world, just like the rest of us, you'll look for any excuse to drive your EV. You'll make up reasons. You won't drive your ICE unless you absolutely must.

It will be quite sufficient to use the excuse that it's much safer, which it is. Welcome to the club.;)
That’s the truth. Even in my Leaf, in which I must do things like drive slowly because the range is so limited, I would rather take it than take my fossil car. The driving experience is that much more rewarding. And after having the hardships associated with a lesser BEV, my Model 3 will be wonderballs in comparison to the Leaf or any fossil car.
 
I now see articles that propose that EVs are not really as clean as people think and maybe it's all the same almost weekly now in the German press. This has become the most common theme for an EV article in recent months and everyone has different results, but usually they argue that EVs are not that great. I suspect some big business interests behind this seemingly coordinated FUD.

The non-Tesla EV fast charging network is actually pretty decent now, except for the need for multiple charging cards. I run the site CCS/Combo Charge Map - Europe to keep track of CCS installations and some 4-stall and >50kW charging locations, as well as good coverage of rest stops with at least single chargers has been added this year.

I think the Model 3 will do very well here.
I think the "green" argument will be irrelevant soon when EVs become cheaper than ICE, with M3 leading the way.
 
What Tesla's newest affordable electric car has in store for you

Reports like these are going to start coming one after another. This is why companies' stocks always go up during the rollout of a new, exciting product - people get excited and buy the stock. The effect has been delayed for TSLA due to production delays but make no mistake, it's coming now.
So the awful reporting is going to support the stock instead of depressing it. I'm not so sure that's a good thing. Fewer "buying opportunities":rolleyes:.
 
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Not sure if this is good news. Tesla turning to Cobalt sources from towns that were unprofitable mining the material before means its usual suppliers are getting more expensive or can't supply enough. Either way, strong signs of more expensive raw product.

Recent PRs from Nano One detail how they have advanced the performance of the Lithium Manganese Nickel Oxide (LMNO) chemistry and made it equal or better in performance to several chemistries which use cobalt. The battery industry is looking for any ways possible to reduce or eliminate the use of cobalt, due to it’s high and going higher prices, and it’s supply downsides (i.e. DR Congo produces much of global cobalt and has the greatest reserves.) GM's recent statements about their EV plans for China highlight the batteries will not need Cobalt. Even as many junior mining companies are working on projects to bring new cobalt supply to market, technology is already falling into place to make Co unnecessary in a few years. The constant pressure to reduce battery prices makes eliminating expensive (and getting more expensive) cobalt a top priority.
 
The only thing that explains it is brand loyalty. Brand is a strong thing. Here in America, the Ford and Chevy pickup people will literally get in fights over which is better and they would never buy anything else. Pickups will be a very tuff market for Tesla to crack, much harder then anything they have done this far. I'm thinking that is in part why they went with the Semi first. To build credibility in the tuff work horse truck world where it's not all about design and sex appeal of the vehicle.

Perhaps everyone except me expects the Tesla pickup truck when revealed to look like the weird Semi based design we've seen. As smart as Franz is, I wonder if instead he will come up with a creative design that manages to look strong, tough, sexy in the sense high end pickup truck owners like and finally enough futuristic look and feel to say this is a Tesla pickup.
 
As for the original 90k in 4Q18, the inherent assumption is that Tesla will push beyond 5,000 in 3Q18, to the extent that it can do so until 7,500 with minimal CapEx, but delay the push to 10,000 and beyond to 2019. This is reasonable.

It's my understanding that a single like is expected to do 5k/week (maybe a bit more if pushed hard enough). Therefore, hitting 7.5k/wk would require the 2nd line installation (which should be happening really soon in such case). And that's a binary CapEx, right? Either you pay and install the line or you don't, you can't install half the production line.
 
It's my understanding that a single like is expected to do 5k/week (maybe a bit more if pushed hard enough). Therefore, hitting 7.5k/wk would require the 2nd line installation (which should be happening really soon in such case). And that's a binary CapEx, right? Either you pay and install the line or you don't, you can't install half the production line.
OK then, here's your like ;) :D
 
It's my understanding that a single like is expected to do 5k/week (maybe a bit more if pushed hard enough). Therefore, hitting 7.5k/wk would require the 2nd line installation (which should be happening really soon in such case). And that's a binary CapEx, right? Either you pay and install the line or you don't, you can't install half the production line.
Second line in Fremont depends on output from Sparks. Until that is resolved, no second line. Could be Tuesday or 2019.
 
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Oh noes!

By 1961, 53 years after launching the Model T, Ford had fallen all the way down to 29% market share. I will be so sad if, in 2070 (53 years after launching the Model 3),Tesla’s market share has fallen to 29%. Sell! Sell!! Sell!!!
When Ford went public in 1956, the company was valued at $3.2 billion. This was up from roughly $130 million when he took the company private in 1919, and up from an original $100,000 when it was first capitalized in 1909... (And note that Ford took out a huge amount of profit for his personal use when the company was private.)
 
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