My Roadster won't match your van for comfort, convenience and capability. Your van won't match my Roadster for driving fun and making people aware of EVs and Tesla. Apples and oranges.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
My Roadster won't match your van for comfort, convenience and capability. Your van won't match my Roadster for driving fun and making people aware of EVs and Tesla. Apples and oranges.
My Model X is definitely better than the Honda Odyssey it replaced for long distance family vacations. Love the all wheel drive, preheat/cool from phone, autopilot driver assist. There is no way I would to back to a gas car for that use case.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
ECobalt is one of the mining startup companies seeking to produce cobalt from areas in Idaho. However increasing cobalt production in North American sufficient to meet Tesla's needs for next two years would take several years. EV Demand for Cobalt may increase for awhile longer but will then plateau and then decline. Note that GM just announced they will manufacture many EVs in China (but not U.S.
) using batteries without cobalt. The arrival of very good, no cobalt chemistries is VERY recent and hasn't yet penetrated to the auto and EV press.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Wonder when Tesla’s going to crank the production rate. By my eye we’ve stalled below 1k/wk. Hopefully they’re using this time to crank quality and will speed up the rate soon.
Thumper
Active Member
Let's call new battery claims claims. Only Tesla/Panasonic has a proven long term record of durability. I assume other chemistries will eventually surpass it, but we can't know if that is the case until they are in cars for many miles and years. Until then, it's just claims.
bdy0627
Active Member
You probably need to revise your ramp projections a little. I know I did. Rob Maurer from Tesla Daily Podcast did a great analysis and projection for Q1 M3 production based upon Tesla's ramp history. If you haven't heard his podcasts, you should check them out. His projection is for 12,000 for the quarter. He also broke it down by week. The weekly rate might look low to you at this point but that's because Tesla quotes burst rates at the end of the quarter rather than steady weekly rates. Historically, their actual weekly rates to start the next quarter have been 20-30% below their end of quarter burst rates. They tend to work up toward a steady rate at the end of the quarter near the burst rate from the end of the previous quarter. I think his ramp projections are very realistic and achievable if not even beatable. Tesla could beat by perhaps 10 or even 15% for the quarter, but that's probably about the max. Here are his weekly estimates (the only one I'm not totally sure is correct is that last one in March - I might have set that to provide for his quarterly total):
1-Jan 500
2-Jan 500
3-Jan 500
4-Jan 700
5-Jan 700
1-Feb 850
2-Feb 900
3-Feb 1000
4-Feb 1000
1-Mar 1100
2-Mar 1100
3-Mar 1500
4-Mar 2200
According to Yahoo finance, the big discussion at the Detroit Auto Show is, Who will buy Tesla,after it goes broke?
bdy0627
Active Member
The way I view the Model 3 2018 production estimates now is that Jonas' is conservative, Maurer's is realistic, and Munster's is optimistic. These have been listed before, but here are their Q1 estimates again:
Jonas: 8,000 (this is really based upon ongoing ramp problems)
Maurer: 12,000 (this is realistically based upon Tesla's ramp history)
Munster: 14,300
Jonas: 8,000 (this is really based upon ongoing ramp problems)
Maurer: 12,000 (this is realistically based upon Tesla's ramp history)
Munster: 14,300
Menifeer
Member
I believe you, but it's not a particularly good supporting argument for an EV. I have the option to stop and rest for as long as I want while traveling in an ICE, but I also have the option to get back on the road after a very short refuel. This issue will be resolved over time as faster charging becomes available, but recharging is a disadvantage in today's world.
No disagreement here. I stress the significant operational cost/maintenance advantages when I discuss EVs with friends.
I've resisted the temptation to take that Model X test drive (drove the MS a couple times). I fear it would cause me to make an emotional decision.
The M3 I have on order will satisfy me for now.I think he kinda f*** up on March and a bit February.
Until 3rd week of February I agree, but then I'd correct
4-Feb : 1350
1-March : 1500
2- March : 1750
3 - March : 2200
4 - March : 2200-2700
49 – Charge!: The Bull Case for Tesla
Good interview. Rob articulates his case very well. You can get a good idea of the bear case by listening to the host's point of view. The host seems to give the German companies a lot of credit and does not account for Tesla continuing to update and improve their products.
40 - Electric Shock: The Shifting Sands Beneath Elon Musk & Tesla
The above is the link for Mark Spiegel's bear case. I am in the process of listening to this now.
Sorry @Thumper totally wrong. Last year Tesla signed a partnership/sponsor deal with Jeffrey Dahn's Li battery research group in Canada, one of the most advanced such groups in the world. Technology developed there can evaluate battery longevity qualities without running thousands of cycles to simulate years of use. About
OK, so just my 2 cents, but I feel like I have to speak up. Not that I significantly disagree with Ben Sullins` or Rob Maurer`s numbers: I am expecting 180-200k Model 3s this year. But i think both of them make some glaring mistakes.
Sullins` video talks about how Tesla will not be able to ramp to 10k/wk before 2019. Maybe, maybe not, but his reasoning is off. He says they`ll get to 5k, but then other scaling/ramping issues may come up so, as I recall, he projected 6-8k as the upper limit this year. However, I think we have Tesla on record (at one of the earnings calls, so either from Elon or JB) saying, that the current Model 3 line is only designed to scale up to 5k and they will duplicate the line once the first one works smoothly at that rate. Not that I expect an instant doubling when that happens, but it`s not like they are trying to push the same line from 1k today to 10k by Q4.
Maurer`s whole theory is built on the Model X analogy. I think that is faulty at core. Sure Model X also had issues and yes, Model 3 will probably have new issues as they increase the ramp, things no one has thought of. But Model X`s issues in themselves have absolutely zero bearing on Model 3. The two vehicles are different designs, built on different production lines, with different battery cells and packs. X had issues with manufacturing its special seat, door and windshield, mostly related to suppliers. Model 3 doesn`t have any of those design elements. Sure, other things may and probably will come up, but extrapolating ramp impact of a yet unknown, future Model 3 issue based on e.g. how quickly the Mexican windshield factory managed to ramp for X? Doesn`t make sense to me at all.
Sullins` video talks about how Tesla will not be able to ramp to 10k/wk before 2019. Maybe, maybe not, but his reasoning is off. He says they`ll get to 5k, but then other scaling/ramping issues may come up so, as I recall, he projected 6-8k as the upper limit this year. However, I think we have Tesla on record (at one of the earnings calls, so either from Elon or JB) saying, that the current Model 3 line is only designed to scale up to 5k and they will duplicate the line once the first one works smoothly at that rate. Not that I expect an instant doubling when that happens, but it`s not like they are trying to push the same line from 1k today to 10k by Q4.
Maurer`s whole theory is built on the Model X analogy. I think that is faulty at core. Sure Model X also had issues and yes, Model 3 will probably have new issues as they increase the ramp, things no one has thought of. But Model X`s issues in themselves have absolutely zero bearing on Model 3. The two vehicles are different designs, built on different production lines, with different battery cells and packs. X had issues with manufacturing its special seat, door and windshield, mostly related to suppliers. Model 3 doesn`t have any of those design elements. Sure, other things may and probably will come up, but extrapolating ramp impact of a yet unknown, future Model 3 issue based on e.g. how quickly the Mexican windshield factory managed to ramp for X? Doesn`t make sense to me at all.
I was particularly impressed with Rob’s patience. The host meandered incoherently.
It was also illuminating, to me, the way he showed Tesla’s operating leverage increase by comparing previous year’s R&D and SG&A vs. present year’s revenue.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
I used to have a link to a site that showed all the top analyst analysis of stock tickers like TSLA, but since my iPad was stolen last September I no longer have a reference to that site. Any suggestions for a such a website?
The site stated the average price, followed by the analysts price, name and links to their evaluation.
For me it is like once I know how to get there driving I dump the street names and rely on autopilot. Not the best thought process, but works for me until someone asks for directions
The site stated the average price, followed by the analysts price, name and links to their evaluation.
For me it is like once I know how to get there driving I dump the street names and rely on autopilot. Not the best thought process, but works for me until someone asks for directions
Not quite what you're asking for, but...
TSLA Analyst Opinion | Analyst Estimates | Tesla, Inc. Stock - Yahoo Finance
TSLA Analyst Opinion | Analyst Estimates | Tesla, Inc. Stock - Yahoo Finance
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Worth noting that's showing cathode materials only, not total cell materials, which include copper, plastic, graphite, electrolyte, steel casing, etc.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Article
