General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SlicedBr3ad]

Really, then Tesla becomes like all the other automakers out there with their Vaporware statements. Nissan said they'd have a 200 mile EV by 2016....that came and went. Tesla announced the 35k version in 2016 and let people put down deposits...I was really early in the line, and will hopefully have it by the end of the year, but most people it says 2019, so three years...maybe.



oh yes, the people spending 64k on a car need the $7500. hahahaha.

They just keep moving the goal post for the SR version, even for people who are early in the line.....whatever that means now.....

I'm a laughing stock at work (esp. from the CFO who is a ultra conservative and big oil guy....good job with the perception Tesla) and with family and friends....."when ya gonna get your car" and then they laugh. Man I'm so mad.

I know you want$35k model like I did. It will happen, not when Tesla said originally but it will happen. Count on it.

 

[Henchman]

I bet there's a massive amount of stock all over the country that's ready for delivery, staring first thing next week.
I bet the Goldmann Sachs estimate is way off.

Hence the "rude awakening " comment.

 

[Ulmo]

I think rude awakening could be as easy as Model 3 producing close to expected.

The short thesis is that Tesla will go bankrupt. If Model 3 produces close to expected now, Tesla will not go bankrupt (sans some unreasonable event not even worth investigating). We already know that, but if the Model 3 produces close to expected now, everyone will know that, and it will be further reinforced with many aspects of financials going positive over the rest of this year and coming years. That will rudely awaken some people, as stated. That by itself would count the prediction as true, so that's my interpretation. Anything more is extra good news now, even though it's part of the mission and future of the company.

 

[ggies07]

I know you want$35k model like I did. It will happen, not when Tesla said originally but it will happen. Count on it.

I know it will happen, but when? Like I said, they keep moving the goal post for the timeline. They hit 5k/week for probability, now in the coming months they should mix in the SR version. The body is the same, it's just a different battery pack. Come on....anyway....maybe Santa will bring me a surprise, but until then, I'm still sitting here doing this.....

 

[Lhan]

I get that in the long run....



I can't afford a monthly payment on a $41k car due to my financial circumstances with having to pay a mortgage/private school for my daughter/etc.....BUT I have managed to save $22k in cash and it makes my monthly payment very manageable for the 35k version.



I don't need or care about the tax credit.....


These are the facts:

-Tesla promoted a 35k version in 2016
-Tesla screwed up which pushed everyone back
-Tesla keeps moving the goal post for the SR version (jan-mar, then late spring, then late 18, now possible early 19)

Cash = Powder = TSLA
TSLA + 6 md = Model 3

 

[avoigt]

I think rude awakening could be as easy as Model 3 producing close to expected.

The short thesis is that Tesla will go bankrupt. If Model 3 produces close to expected now, Tesla will not go bankrupt (sans some unreasonable event not even worth investigating). We already know that, but if the Model 3 produces close to expected now, everyone will know that, and it will be further reinforced with many aspects of financials going positive over the rest of this year and coming years. That will rudely awaken some people, as stated. That by itself would count the prediction as true, so that's my interpretation. Anything more is extra good news now, even though it's part of the mission and future of the company.

It would be helpful to have the original mail from Elon. What we got is only what the media told us. I tend to prefer reading the real source to make conclusions on my own.

Has anybody the mail or can link to it?

 

[Remus]

I see what you are saying, but this is very different than what other companies can do. No focus group allows direct interaction with C-level executives much less a celebrity CEO. Also, there are no outreach efforts that have a real time reach of greater than 2 million; all at no cost and minimal time from Tesla.

This value of this is very hard to quantify, but the impact to the Tesla brand is tremendous. Apple might be the closest to Tesla as far as their ability to generate organic marketing buzz, but their events are heavily staged. I am sure there are one offs, but I cannot think of many parallels with this level of reach.

completely agree. Getting customer input is essential to every company. Tesla can do this is a real competitive edge.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I know it will happen, but when? Like I said, they keep moving the goal post for the timeline. They hit 5k/week for probability, now in the coming months they should mix in the SR version. The body is the same, it's just a different battery pack. Come on....anyway....maybe Santa will bring me a surprise, but until then, I'm still sitting here doing this.....

Months ago, they moved it to late 2018– which I read as starting in late 2018. At the shareholder meeting, Elon said starting at the end of the year, with volume production in Q1. Now, the estimate says 6-9 months (which works out to Dec 18 - Feb 19).

These statements all look the same to me.

 

[ggies07]

Months ago, they moved it to late 2018– which I read as starting in late 2018. At the shareholder meeting, Elon said starting at the end of the year, with volume production in Q1. Now, the estimate says 6-9 months (which works out to Dec 18 - Feb 19).

These statements all look the same to me.

I know I know, I've been going off on a technicality here....what you said is true, though keeping it "late '18" is more definite than "6-9 months". hahaha. I'll drop the subject for now

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I know I know, I've been going off on a technicality here....what you said is true, though keeping it "late '18" is more definite than "6-9 months". hahaha. I'll drop the subject for now

Did you see my earlier post that the federal tax credit would cover the difference in monthly payments for the first 27 months or so?

 

[22522]

Hi guys, here's my thoughts on the tent. Anyone else think this is plausable, or is this already commonly understood:

Tesla’s Tent – Martin Convery – Medium

A lot like what you said, but they should be playing leap frog with the different lines.

I think there is process prototyping location not in the tent.

I see the tent as a semi automated assembly line prototype that they will step and repeat all over the world.

The difference between our views is the tent should be a high Production rate line with some robots that will be duplicated on other continents.

 

[scaesare]

..., they keep moving the goal post for the timeline.... they should mix in the SR version.

You keep saying this... did Elon promise when in the production backlog they'd build the SR?

And why exactly should they start SR production now. I get that you don't want to have to wait, but somebody is going to have to, so how is it prudent for them to not prioritize the more profitable cars?

 

[ggies07]

Did you see my earlier post that the federal tax credit would cover the difference in monthly payments for the first 27 months or so?

Ah, missed that this morning, sorry. You are close with the monthly payment for the 35k version, though I have excellent credit and no debt expect our house and I'm going for a 72 month loan, so the estimates I've been playing with is somewhere around $202/m.

There's a lot of life bills that we all have, each year my daughter's tuition goes up, even though I get a great discount because I work at the school, so I have to factor that into future finances. Anyway, don't want to bore anyone with my personal life, just I've done my part to afford the car, time for the company to promise to produce the product.

 

[MXWing]

Did you see my earlier post that the federal tax credit would cover the difference in monthly payments for the first 27 months or so?

First production Model 3 will be deals.

When people unload P90s for P100s, the switch from RWD to AWD is chump change.

 

[MXWing]

Did you see my earlier post that the federal tax credit would cover the difference in monthly payments for the first 27 months or so?

First production Model 3 will be deals.

When people unload P90s for P100Ds, RWD to AWD is chump change.

 

[ggies07]

You keep saying this... did Elon promise when in the production backlog they'd build the SR?

Elon didn't, the company did. It's what's been on our config pages since Dec/Jan time after they told everyone about the screw up. Mine was Jan-mar/ late spring/ late '18/now 6-9 months. That's the most official thing we have, so I've been going off of that.

 

[dc_h]

I always felt there was a general misunderstanding around the tent.

Either in the last ER, or the call that day, or in a later tweet, Elon said, that while GA 1&2 should be enough to push them over 5k/wk, they are building GA3 that will make it all but certain. Later he shared the key pain points in an internal email and there he did mention GA3 needing to ramp up and construction on GA4. On June 16 he tweeted a photo of the first AWD coming off the line from inside of what was obviously "the tent".

Now from all of that, people started assuming GA3 was the one in the tent and this was the one needed to achieve 5k. We also had that leaker taking spy videos/shots of the tent and showing how there was very little activity. He has even commented how if this is what Tesla needs to get to 5k there is no way they`ll make it.

However, I always thought there was another explanation.

I think GA3 may be inside the factory and what we see in the tent is GA4. Just being constructed or finished recently, maybe being used for the Performance AWD production right now which is a low(er) volume product where they may need to do a few custom modifications compared to the SR and LR RWD and AWD models by hand.

Just a theory...

Agreed, and I think this will allow them to push past 6000 and maybe 7000 in Q3. Assuming there are 4 lines also makes it easier to shut one at a time and make continuous updates. Hopefully we’re at 5000 and still on the s curve upwards.
Paint may be the big challenge at this point.

 

[dc_h]

I bet there's a massive amount of stock all over the country that's ready for delivery, staring first thing next week.
I bet the Goldmann Sachs estimate is way off.

Hence the "rude awakening " comment.

The delivery number may be on target, but the production target way off.

 

[schonelucht]

One very persistent short used a drone to film the operations inside the tent. See here on Twitter. Video was taken on 6/26. Must say it does not present a good picture. Hopefully the rude awakening is not based on what's happening inside there.

 

[mrdoubleb]

One very persistent short used a drone to film the operations inside the tent. See here on Twitter. Video was taken on 6/26. Must say it does not present a good picture. Hopefully the rude awakening is not based on what's happening inside there.

This is why I was saying in my earlier post, that I believe that gloating was based on misreading the situation. I believe GA3 is inside the factory and that's the line Elon said will put them over 5k. What this guy was filming in the tent must be GA4, just completed and still ramping, or may be used specifically for the performance AWD version.