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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I saw news that all reservation holders were allowed to configure etc. But I haven’t received an invite yet and my Tesla model 3 page still shows only expected delivery date. Any ideas?
I think what happened is all *day 1* reservation holders can now configure *AWD/P*, which was not previously the case. Day 2 reservation holders are not yet all able to configure.
 
300,000lb towing capacity!! Who needs the semi?!

Elon Musk on Twitter

How can a truck based on the semi be called a pickup truck. This is very confusing. People want a genuine EV pickup. Not word games.

I'm sure Elon looks at the huge F150 sales number an sees the big potential market. I don't see him showing a truck with a 4-5 foot bed height addresses that market.
 
But there's apparently no sunroof available for the 3 at all. I love the sunroof on my S. Hmm again.

Also I'm not happy that if you upgrade to Performance you must take the 20" wheels, the 18" wheels aren't even an option on the Performance. The configuration options on the 3 are much more limited than on the S.
No, you can select "performance" at stage 1; this gives you the acceleration. Then at stage 2, there's an additional package that has a 10mph top speed increase, spoiler, wheels and aluminium pedals. We didn't opt for that upgrade.
 
...and finally a balanced report about the "tent" !

Tesla tent helps crank out 5k Model 3s this week
I always felt there was a general misunderstanding around the tent.

Either in the last ER, or the call that day, or in a later tweet, Elon said, that while GA 1&2 should be enough to push them over 5k/wk, they are building GA3 that will make it all but certain. Later he shared the key pain points in an internal email and there he did mention GA3 needing to ramp up and construction on GA4. On June 16 he tweeted a photo of the first AWD coming off the line from inside of what was obviously "the tent".

Now from all of that, people started assuming GA3 was the one in the tent and this was the one needed to achieve 5k. We also had that leaker taking spy videos/shots of the tent and showing how there was very little activity. He has even commented how if this is what Tesla needs to get to 5k there is no way they`ll make it.

However, I always thought there was another explanation.

I think GA3 may be inside the factory and what we see in the tent is GA4. Just being constructed or finished recently, maybe being used for the Performance AWD production right now which is a low(er) volume product where they may need to do a few custom modifications compared to the SR and LR RWD and AWD models by hand.

Just a theory...
 
The performance upgrade package also comes with the better brakes.... (Which probably doesn't fit under the 18" wheels.)

And per Elon Tweet (referring to whether AWD has performance brakes)
No, but dual motors mean increased regen braking & will ride tire traction limit. You won’t notice sport brakes unless you’re on a racetrack & have the sticky 20” tires.
 
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How long after the Tesla pickup hits the streets to where we see YouTube videos of Tesla pickups towing large trailers blowing away supercars in drag races?
I don't know if speed is the main attraction. I'd like to see the pickup tow battle all 3 of its Detroit competitors (F150, RAM, Silverado) together, uphill.
 
Some thoughts on this as I was pleasantly surprised to see the Twitter pick-up exchange.

Elon is deeply involved in product design for Tesla. Reaching out to his followers does a couple things:

1) It brings his followers (potential future customers) into the product design discussion. Whether he uses an idea pulled from a Twitter comment in the final design is unlikely, but it generates excitement through participation. What other car company does this?

2) It shifts some of the narrative from the minutiae surrounding Model 3. I noted in another thread that very soon the narrative will shift from Model 3 on to other issues. This is a good start toward that.

3) It needed to be done especially since there is talk about a China and Germany GF. Tesla should be determining a product manufacturing mix for these facilities now if they have not already done so.

These are quick thoughts, but I am sure a 4) could be to generate buying support for the stock. I hesitate to say that as the pick-up design has to be done soon anyway. My 'T' colored glasses could be clouding my view on this though.

Other companies do do this. they pay money to get focus groups and stuff. Tesla is taking advantage of its rock star CEO and don't need to pay a penny.

And I won't read too much into the timing. This is a Musk fan boy talking. I don't think he has much in mind other than soliciting feature requests. Elon is an engineer. We engineers likes to talk about the toys we are building, and he is trying to build several of them.
 
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Other companies do do this. they pay money to get focus groups and stuff. Tesla is taking advantage of its rock star CEO and don't need to pay a penny.

I see what you are saying, but this is very different than what other companies can do. No focus group allows direct interaction with C-level executives much less a celebrity CEO. Also, there are no outreach efforts that have a real time reach of greater than 2 million; all at no cost and minimal time from Tesla.

This value of this is very hard to quantify, but the impact to the Tesla brand is tremendous. Apple might be the closest to Tesla as far as their ability to generate organic marketing buzz, but their events are heavily staged. I am sure there are one offs, but I cannot think of many parallels with this level of reach.
 
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We are now about a week away from Elon's prediction of when the short positions would "explode."

Given the "rude awakening" note above, he still seems to have confidence in things, and I want to give my thoughts on what I think might be coming soon. This is pure speculation on my part and based on not much other than my own wild guesses. But, I think there might be 3 bits of news on the near horizon:

1) Model 3. Expect good news on both the "total produced" and the "production rate" fronts. Hopefully it will also be obvious that they delivered a whole bunch to Canada and have a whole bunch ready for near-term delivery. I also expect Model S and X are doing well.
2) Puerto Rico. There have been bits of news here and there about Tesla Energy projects in Puerto Rico. I believe there was also a headline recently about Puerto Rico voting to change the whole public vs. private management/ownership of their grid. I think/hope (again, based on just my own wild guesses) that there may be a big announcement soon about a large-scale fully-organized Tesla Energy-led restructuring of Puerto Rico's electrical system. I would view this as both a big win in the short term and a very big "pilot project" to advertise the benefits of such an arrangement to the rest of the world for future growth.
3) China. I believe we're already expecting a Gigafactory announcement soon. Several other folks have already predicted that Tesla will soon have a major Chinese investor/partner/etc. as well. I expect this might have been part of Elon's 3-week warning as well...although, with the ongoing trade/tariff/etc. battles going on, factories/partnerships/investmants from China may have become even trickier in the last couple weeks and in the near future.
 
...and finally a balanced report about the "tent" !

Tesla tent helps crank out 5k Model 3s this week

@avoigt thanks for the article.

This is just one more piece to our external look at the fundamentals. How can it not increase sustained production if not by twice, why not more since it is built based on lessons learned from the first assembly line. Again the fog of war will prove itself more than likely this time frame at the end of 3Q18.

Remember, hopefully better than me, one of the traditional automakers a year ago said they were backing off robots and sticking with human power instead. I think it was Mercedes, but again other than the fleeting memory, I did not record the article.

And, to clarify my thinking discussed yesterday ~ I mentioned that Tesla could be deliberately holding up deliveries of Model 3s trying to keep the tax incentive alive and prolonged. First, none of know that for sure. I mentioned it because it benefits a lot of customers to make that maneuver despite the numbers game most investors are eager to win. Elon's intentions from the beginning, from my cross eyed perspective, has always been "we the customers/society." So, just to be clear I have no facts here ~ just a gut feeling ~ which could be wrong or wright (one of those "w" words:) ~ yes, I was very slow on the up tic of writing in the beginning of my life and I am aware it is spelled "right":) Just feeling happy compared to all the recent FUD. Hopefully, we will find out in a month when the financials are released, and comments by Elon.
 
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