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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Dual motor Model 3 design pic leaked
Tesla Model 3 dual motor design leaks in latest design studio update
Tesla Model 3 dual motor design leaks in latest design studio update
sundaymorning
Active Member
No idea where the reporter gets his numbers, but:
Inventory turnover, for any period, is usually defined as: COGS for the period/Average Inventory for the Period = Inventory Factor; 365 days/Inventory Factor = Inventory Turnover Period. How to Calculate Inventory Turnover
Using the 2016 10k, COGS of Auto Revenue was $4.75 billion. Beginning of period Finished Goods Inventory was $0.477 billion and end of period was $1.017 billion for an average of $0.766 billion for a factor of about 6.3 or a holding period of ~58 days.
Using Total COGS and Average 2016 of all Inventory (raw materials, WIP. FG & parts), the holding period is 111 days.
For the 1st 3 quarters of 2017, the comparable measures are:
Auto COGS & FG Inventory only: ~85 days
Total COGS & Total Inventory: ~124 days
Looking backwards to 2013, 2014 and 2015:
2015 Auto/FG only: ~57 days; Total COGS/INV ~131 days
2014 Auto/FG only: ~40 days; Total COGS/INV ~102 days
2013 Auto/FG only: ~65 days; Total COGS/INV ~290 days
To summarize (in days of inventory):
......Auto Only...Total
3Q17..85.........124
2016...58.........111
2015...57.........131
2014...40.........102
2014...65.........290
(Using quarterly rather than annual periods for average inventory would yield slightly different results.)
Comparisons to other auto manufacturers (Toyota/Mazda etc.) with different business paradigms are inapt; the more relevant issues for investors would seem to be how frequently a company with Tesla's business plan should turnover its inventory and how Inventory factors and turnover periods should change as the company grows?
It would be helpful for analysis if Tesla were to break down its Inventory categories (raw materials, WIP, FG & Parts) in the same granularity as it reports COGS (Auto Sales, Auto Leasing, Energy Generation & Storage, and Services & Other.) Alas, not to be.
Period to period measures are somewhat distorted by the leases/resale/residual guarantees and the SolarCity merger. Tesla's plan to manage cash needed for Operations is to collect payments from Model 3 customers before it has to pay it's material suppliers. This requires high turns for raw material and WIP inventories.
FWIW, FG Inventory includes not just floor models, demos, and service loaners but also pre-owned Teslas traded-in.
Brando
Active Member
Can't understand WHY Tesla would want to "help" Wall St.
You clearly show much more knowledge/technique than most.
But we all know Tesla in an overvalued state. I can't see your more "accurate numbers" changing that dynamic. And Wall St. hustlers will continue to hussle, right? Long holders will continue to hold, unless they panic, right? You get my drift
Curious what you think of some Hedge Fund figuring out how much Tesla stock to buy to put the hurt on "shorts" and then pick up some deals buying up these shorted funds? Perhaps it doesn't work this way since Banksters do "naked shorts" anyway?
To me, seems like so much corruption you have to have a lot of faith. Except for going long.
My ignorance maybe excuse enough not to bother replying. thanks in advance.
You clearly show much more knowledge/technique than most.
But we all know Tesla in an overvalued state. I can't see your more "accurate numbers" changing that dynamic. And Wall St. hustlers will continue to hussle, right? Long holders will continue to hold, unless they panic, right? You get my drift
Curious what you think of some Hedge Fund figuring out how much Tesla stock to buy to put the hurt on "shorts" and then pick up some deals buying up these shorted funds? Perhaps it doesn't work this way since Banksters do "naked shorts" anyway?
To me, seems like so much corruption you have to have a lot of faith. Except for going long.
My ignorance maybe excuse enough not to bother replying. thanks in advance.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Words of HABIT
Active Member
I would not trust any journalism that fails to name the author for accountability. "Enertuition" states "Model 3, on the other hand, remains largely a beta vaporware product until Tesla gets out of its production hell.". What is this writer smoking? Complete clickbait nonsense. The more articles I read of this nature (baseless criticisms) the more I want and will invest in TSLA. I'm all for considering logical arguments, I just haven't found any against Tesla.
The SA author posits: “Leaf is also likely a credible competitor in urban Taxi business where the average daily mileage is relatively low due to traffic considerations and where the Nissan Leaf’s 150 mile range could be sufficient.”
I exclusively use Lyft and Uber in San Diego, and have had three rides in Bolts (we were one of the first markets for the GM/Lyft cooperation). I discuss BEVs with most of my drivers, and did the same with my Bolts.
First, none of the three drivers chose the Bolt b/c it is a BEV; all three chose it because of the better GM-Lyft lease terms.
Second, the SA author’s suggestion that the Leaf’s range would be adequate for these drivers is NOT the drivers’ perception. The Bolt range is barely sufficient for them (if a driver works Lyft full time, they they claim they often exceed the vehicles range and need to take time out during the day to charge, which frustrates them). If the Bolt range is perceived as barely sufficient by drivers, the Leaf would be less so.
BTW, I liked the Bolt very much. I am not criticizing the Bolt or the Leaf as vehicles, only the SA author’s assertion regarding the Leaf’s relative desirability in the ride hailing or “Taxi” arena. Another caveat is that some Lyft and Uber drivers are part time, only driving for a few hours each day; the lower range of the Leaf could meet their needs, if not their perceptions.
Reciprocity
Active Member
The guy has been slurping to much alphalpha.. He must live somewhere that is legalized now.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Dual motor Model 3 design pic leaked
Tesla Model 3 dual motor design leaks in latest design studio update
Is the performance model just a larger rear motor and software? I wonder if they would go duel and P in quick succession, before the smaller battery and non pup interior.
FH Test fire moved to Monday
Start the countdown: SpaceX Falcon Heavy engine test now set for Monday
Start the countdown: SpaceX Falcon Heavy engine test now set for Monday
"alphalpha" doesn't cause that condition - being short $TSLA and deep in the red does.
I wouldn't think so since that would be counter to what they are showing in their web site. Sure they could change direction but would certainly take a lot of heat for it. It appears there are alot of employees who are anxious for the smaller battery and I suspect they reallly want to take care of their own.. I think an interesting question is whether they will offer the standard interior with the standard battery or whether they will continue with the premium interior for a brief period. That would at least drop the cost by $9k.
bdy0627
Active Member
Not really worth the click, but if you're bored, it's kinda funny in a ridiculous way.
https://jalopnik.com/bob-lutz-thinks-the-model-s-will-be-collectable-after-t-1822267177
https://jalopnik.com/bob-lutz-thinks-the-model-s-will-be-collectable-after-t-1822267177
Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
Originally posted this question in the market action thread, but thought I may be more likely to get a response here (apologies for the double post).
Does anyone have any information on what’s going on with the official safety rating of the Model 3? As a point of reference, does anyone recall how long after the S and X were released that their official safety ratings came out?
I am certain - assuming it’s rated as highly as I hope it will be - that once it’s published the stock is going to make a major move higher.
Originally posted this question in the market action thread, but thought I may be more likely to get a response here (apologies for the double post).
Does anyone have any information on what’s going on with the official safety rating of the Model 3? As a point of reference, does anyone recall how long after the S and X were released that their official safety ratings came out?
I am certain - assuming it’s rated as highly as I hope it will be - that once it’s published the stock is going to make a major move higher.
Ulmo
Active Member
I would tell those millennials to look instead at the Model X or Model 3, which are both superior in their own way to the Model S. However, used Model S's can be had for almost the same price as new Model 3's now, so fairly soon, some of the older Model S's will be competitively priced against the Model 3, a sizable used car discount for less of a car. At about that same time, the first Model X's should become available on the used market, so if you want a fairly expensive costly to fix car that's superior to Model S, you can swing for a Model X, but I wouldn't necessarily recommend that route either unless you're wealthy and just don't want new (or can afford to swap it out as soon as the used car warranty runs out (that gets complicated figuring out how much warranty it can have)).
If you Google it you will find the blogs from Tesla from when they were released. Model S was August 2013 but the Model X wasn't until June of last year. Getting the car might be a problem because NHTSA has someone buy it like any other customer since they don't want carmakers knowing which car is for them. If they didn't reserve it could be a while before they get one to test.
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