Skipping a jury trial? Gutsy...
(Refering to presenting the printscreen to the judge v.s. to the court/ jury)
I must be on Rarity's ignore list, that level of logical/ semantical thought is common in software development (or at least my brain)...
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Skipping a jury trial? Gutsy...
(Refering to presenting the printscreen to the judge v.s. to the court/ jury)
Linear or geometric projection remains nonsense over the short term. Let's look bottom-up.
First Tesla is going to speed up the existing lines as much as they can.
Now, Elon's *style* when there's bad news is simply to say nothing and talk about something else. GA2 is confirmed to be a Model 3 line. Given the lack of statements about GA2, I'm guessing it had a lot of sections which didn't work right and has to be totally reconfigured. They're probably doing this right now. They can get it to match GA3 sooner or later. GA3 is already at 4000/week and pushing upwards towads 5000/week, while GA4 makes an extra 1000/week. Get GA2 doing as well as GA3, and 10000/week is in the bag.
So much for GA. The real question is what the bottlenecks are between 5000 and 10000 on the *other* lines -- paint, body, battery packs, etc. All leaks are that battery pack assembly is going very well and speeding up quite a bit; it's already parallel lines and I don't think the cost of adding another if needed is going to be super bad. Last we heard they were having trouble speeding paint up any more, and some difficulty speeding body up past 6000/week.
They could probably speed paint up by eliminating the multi-coat paint colors. They're charging the same $1000 for the metallic paints, which are not slowing the line down, as for the multi-coat paint jobs, which apparently are. This is not a good use of resources. Replace them with flat white and flat red and produce more cars per day. But even doing that, it's not clear if they're going to hit a "need a new paint line" point before getting to 10000/week.
And if they need a new body line, that will be the bottleneck which stops them from making futher increases.
So I think they'll increase until they hit the next bottleneck, but I don't know what that bottleneck is. I await further information.
Are you serious? Before you duplicate a line, you want to max it out, so that you're duplicating the debugged, maximally efficient version of the line.
I thought that would be obvious.
No, no, it's really not. You don't duplicate a line which you're still improving, even if the line is profitable. You duplicate it when you think you've optimized it.
If the banker isn't listening to Ed Niedermeyer's dishonest hit pieces or Linette Lopez's dishonest hit pieces. Do you see why Musk is mad about this disinformation?
Could be...
On the shareholder call, he said the first 2 lines could maybe do the 5k on their own, but the third line they were building would help push it over the top. Then the leaked email said they were doing work with GA3. So either GA2 is slow and GA3 is almost 5k on it's own and they are making it better. Or GA2 is good, and GA3 needs help... Or both are slow, but GA3 is improving...
(Or my moon shot, there are 4 Model three lines, 1&2 are almost 5k together, 3 is in process in the factory, 4 is in the tent, and the s/x line, like WW1 before WW2, is GA or GA0
)Well, it *is* how Hitler took power; Germany was a nominal democracy at the time, but it was under very high stress due to reparations, the Great Depression, deflation, hyperinflation, and a revanchist anti-democratic powerbase of Junkers.
More recently, similar corruption of facts were used to take power by the dictator Orban in Hungary. And Erdogan in Turkey -- but there was more active civil society in Turkey, so the media and military control is a lot weaker for Erdogan. And this corruption of facts is what Putin does, but Russians are used to it, since their leaders have been feeding them obvious lies and propaganda since the days of the Tsars. Anyway, the US isn't in that bad a shape... yet. We have the advantage in the US that nobody can can have 100% control of the media, or even of the police or military (due to the thousands of individually elected local and state governments); controlling the national government isn't controlling the government here, whereas it is in Russia or Hungary (and also in Turkey but slightly less so in Turkey, which is why Erdogan is weaker).
Frankly this is small beer compared to Trump's horrific campaign of lies trying to encourage people to behave abusively towards anyone perceived as an "immigrant". Now that's a Milosevic-level problem.
Tesla and Musk have the ability to fight back against this disinformation campaign, in the courts and in the media. They are doing so.
His gofundme is still only at $13500, that kind of money doesn’t buy a lot of experts.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Right and wrong, Tesla constantly iterates, so no line is every done. Tesla claims to have made more than 1000 changes to S/X over the years but in general you are correct. The lines wouldn't be duplicated until they are stable. In your prior post, I think you already identified the bottlenecks. Paint and body. If body is limited to 6k, then I hope they designed the line knowing that, meaning they knew certain points in that line would be limited to 6k while others might not have those limits. What that means is that they don't need a whole new body line, they have left room to add duplicate sections that allow the rate to nearly double. Let's say a step in process takes 20 minutes and is 10m x10m. There would be an open spot past that spot that is 10x10m. New equipment goes in that spot so 2 cars come in at a time because the prior sections are at 10k. Maybe 50% of the line can run at 10k, so only 20 of 40 sections need doubling. The key here is that line was designed this way. It could also be that the entire line needs doubling, but that makes little sense based on comments from conference calls stating only 30%-50% capex required to go from 5k-10k.
As neo stated, none of this can happen until each line is optimized to the fullest reasonable level. No reason to do it until the rest of body line is capable of running at 10k or atleast proof those parts can. Each step is it's own unique process with it's own set of issues to resolve. There is a lot of work to be done. But the writing is already on the wall. 2.2k to 5k with a 6k burst in the last few days proves Tesla's design can improve at a very high rate QoQ.
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Reciprocity
Active Member
That will pay for one motion to compel and Tripp had a 50% chance to lose and what they are compelling may not be of any value. He will need 100 of those to get and dirt, of there is any to get.
Shorts love to prattle on about Discovery and how much Tesla fears it. They are right, it Tripp had millions to waste, he could find some damning stuff. I'm sure there is a Skelton or two in there, but finding it would cost millions and take years and Tesla could run out the clock. Tesla could also push it to the point where only the judge can see the discovery because of IP and HIPPA and many other issues.
I don't know if anyone noted this but the lawsuit is federal? Federal is interesting because the are some different rules on discovery. I'm not 100% sure but federal cases are on quicker schedules and discovery is more limited because of that.
Tesla is not going after Tripp for money, they want discovery and they want to break him and turn him. They want the person who directed Tripp. Then they want the people who directed that guy and so on.
Also when Elon said that a former employee went on the record, he might have meant someone else is singing. On the record could mean a signed statement from someone else. Some have said it won't help to take down a few bad actors in the press, but it will because it will send a message to others to confirm their stories and to be wary of shorts influencing the story because there will be ramifications where there were none before.
How about TSLA taking steps like Fairfax and sueing? Also some of Chanos enemies (say Prem Wasta, ..) become Tesla's friends and just keep buying.
I am good with 'open poll'. Would it not be interesting to see what picture people picked....Ok, maybe scary, not interesting.
I know, I know, off topic...but it is the weekend.
They charge $1500 for the Multi-Coat Red and White now.
Cohiba
Member
The most expensive kind of expert (in the long run)
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Could be misdirection to put her off guard. "Oh. He doesn't even have the right source. I don't have to worry."
sub
Active Member
These experts are hypothetical afaik, haven't seen any confirmation on the tweeter that he has found representation.
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