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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Maybe Elon...other than that...?

Dan

I think that you may be right! :)

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

Poll results are so far all over the place with a small sample size (read: no one knows!), but generally from what I'm seeing, I think many are overestimating how much Tesla will need to spend to bring Model 3 production to 10,000 weekly rate. I thought paint shop would be one major CapEx, anything else? This is certainly an area of confusion among investors. I'm sure someone will ask the necessary clarifying question, NOT!
 
This is a continuing false assumption as far as building the glider in Fremont. They are not more skilled in building the "ice part" of the car, they are significantly less skilled than existing traditional auto manufacturers.

The economies of scale gap is far bigger and more relevant to cost than any gap in the skill of manufacture.
 
The economies of scale gap is far bigger and more relevant to cost than any gap in the skill of manufacture.

Maybe true, but the two can't really be separated. Skill increases as they get bigger. Currently they have a lot of employees trying to find the lunch room.

The good news is that if Tesla has good margins now the cost side of that calculation will only improve with time. It is somewhat counter intuitive, but if Tesla's probably excellent Q4 2018 financials are created with a highly productive Fremont factory then there is no more potential upside by cutting production cost.
 

I would love to see more interviews with Elon like this - weekly would be lovely, but monthly would I think be fine. Some of these could be conference presentations when that's a better venue for the material, but talking about the company and the progress in the very human and real way he has.

I really liked the idea he expressed - why sleep in the factory instead of going across the street and sleeping at the hotel? Because he wants his situation to be worse than what anybody else at the factory is going through. That's leading by example - love it.
 
Just been told by relative in NW who ordered M3 at the end of June, their car is ready for pick up tomorrow.

Wow, this was a fast turnaround, since he was told 3-5 months upon order. In reality, it was only about 2 weeks.

Does anyone have similar stories? Is this happening on a wider scale?

(Add: they had a reservation for two years)
 
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What interests me in this article, Panasonic has not received “any official request” from Tesla for cooperating with the development of the new Shanghai factory. I guess in the business world, for something to be “official” takes a lot of prep work.

But since the Shanghai factory is essentially “official” it makes me speculate if Tesla might have plans to part ways. Not sure how I feel about this and I’m sure it’s most likely too early to speculate.

As of now, Shanghai is just a bunch of question marks.
 
Just been told by relative in NW who ordered M3 at the end of June, their car is ready for pick up tomorrow.

Wow, this was a fast turnaround, since he was told 3-5 months upon order. In reality, it was only about 2 weeks.

Does anyone have similar stories? Is this happening on a wider scale?

(Add: they had a reservation for two years)

I have. About five folks in the Portland (Oregon) Tesla Motors Club FB group said that they've ordered an M3 LR in the last few months and got them in about 30 days.
 
What interests me in this article, Panasonic has not received “any official request” from Tesla for cooperating with the development of the new Shanghai factory. I guess in the business world, for something to be “official” takes a lot of prep work.

But since the Shanghai factory is essentially “official” it makes me speculate if Tesla might have plans to part ways. Not sure how I feel about this and I’m sure it’s most likely too early to speculate.

As of now, Shanghai is just a bunch of question marks.
I doubt that Tesla and Panasonic will part ways. However, one of the reasons that China carved out the foreign owned company exemption for Tesla could be that a Chinese battery manufacturer is going to provide the batteries. This would be a huge win for the Chinese government. They receive all of the vehicles that the GF can produce plus, if you believe the western propaganda, Tesla's battery IP for use in producing their other domestic BEVs.
 
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A thought: What if Tesla, as part of the deal (and getting good pricing from Chinese cell maker instead of Panasonic for GF3), does license their cell IP to Chinese firms. This might sound crazy, but if you believe the (not entirely unrealistic) belief that the trade secrets would be stolen in short order from any factory in China, then getting it officially licensed makes more sense than not getting paid for it at all.
 
I doubt that Tesla and Panasonic will part ways. However, one of the reasons that China carved out the foreign owned company exemption for Tesla could be that a Chinese battery manufacturer is going to provide the batteries. This would be a huge win for the Chinese government. They receive all of the vehicles that the GF ca.n produce plus, if you believe the western propaganda, Tesla's battery IP for use in producing their other domestic BEVs.

Highly, highly doubtful Tesla would engage a Chinese battery manufacturer for Shanghai GF. Nuts actually. They will either partner with Panasonic again or do the battery manufacture themselves in the GF.

Are you asserting that 20 years of China stealing western IP is just "western propaganda" ? This is understood and documented by every tech company and security agencies in western countries.

Tesla contracting to have a Chinese battery company make it's cells would just save Chinese security agencies from the effort to try and pry it out piece by piece. Having better cells than other EV companies is a key element of Tesla's competitive moat.
 
A thought: What if Tesla, as part of the deal (and getting good pricing from Chinese cell maker instead of Panasonic for GF3), does license their cell IP to Chinese firms. This might sound crazy, but if you believe the (not entirely unrealistic) belief that the trade secrets would be stolen in short order from any factory in China, then getting it officially licensed makes more sense than not getting paid for it at all.

In that case, if I was Panasonic, I would be pretty pissed :) even if the IP formally belonged to Tesla. Don´t think Tesla would jeopardize its relation with Panasonic, too much to lose (GF1, 2...).
 
I think it interesting no one has focussed on the Shanghai deal's mention of a joint R&D collaboration. If there is a knowledge leak one would think it would be most acute there. On the other hand, one of the advantages China has is the largest gene pool of talent in the world, and a national ethos infused with Confucian respect for knowledge and education, which could be of considerable advantage. (Cf: Friday Night Lights.) Talent leak an acute possibility but Tesla already faces this problem in Silicon Valley. (Thumper: the Northern branch.;))
 
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