Its called "you do not know, what you do not know", the worst kind of things not to know.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Panasonic makes cell components and I think cells themselves in China now.
Tesla doesn't have to make the same battery chemistry in every country. They could make an obsolete chemistry for the Chinese market and make the latest in Europe and the US. Considering how piracy is so rampant in China, it would be smart for Tesla to do that.
Now the Chinese may have made a killer deal with Tesla expecting they would be able to rip off the latest chemistry.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Western Companies don't use the most modern emission control technology in China. Generally, it is two generations behind.
WillK
Member
TLDR: if you remove the times they produced a lot, they didn't produce a lot.
So you guys are saying this skabooshka guy is actually a short, or maybe he works for VW or some other European competitor, so what's the deal with these numbers? Can they be trusted?
https://i.redd.it/1nsmbydk4u911.jpg
https://i.redd.it/1nsmbydk4u911.jpg
He's crazy bearish, but that doesn't mean he's necessarily going to lie the way Montana Skeptic does. His data on car production seems pretty accurate.
We think skabooshka has a spy (or spy camera) in the factory leaking numbers off the whiteboard to him.
Detective work (which I think was deleted from this board because the detective might have been suggesting harassing skabooshka which is unacceptable) has linked skabooshka to Wolfsburg, which is the VW company town, so he probably has something to do with VW. He may be hostile to Tesla for this reason, but if he's spying on the competition, he would also have an interest in accurate data.
Having interest in accurate data for himself does not equal sharing accurate data. Having said that, his chart makes sense and does line up with what the lady from the paint shop was tweeting.
The pessimistic side of me (yes, I do have one) thinks the data is accurate until it's not. Similar to a seller on e-bay who delivers the items until they don't....
ISTR that an epidemic of catastrophic computer mother board breakdowns a few decades ago was traced back to a shift in sourcing to less expensive electrolytic capacitors. It turned out they were so cheap because the IP had been pirated. But the stolen recipe sneakily made no mention of a vital compound that must be added to the formula, and the caps blew over a period of a year or so, destroying other components and killing the PC. Not sure if the board makers survived the massive returns and loss of trust.
ISTR also that Tesla's battery chemistry is explicitly not patented but kept as a well guarded trade secret. So I don't think they want it copied willy nilly. Maybe after the next iteration with Dahn formula the old one can be released?
/ spy vs spy
EDIT: Probably more than one maker got bitten, since this was a minor but ubiquitious part in all mother board brands and competition was knife sharp for low price.
ISTR also that Tesla's battery chemistry is explicitly not patented but kept as a well guarded trade secret. So I don't think they want it copied willy nilly. Maybe after the next iteration with Dahn formula the old one can be released?
/ spy vs spy
EDIT: Probably more than one maker got bitten, since this was a minor but ubiquitious part in all mother board brands and competition was knife sharp for low price.
Last edited:
This makes a lot of sense. Can't have an effective "take the money and run" fraud unless you've built up a reputation first. Same would apply more so to an attempt to spread disinformation: it works better if you have a reputation to start with.
There have been excellent posts on TMC laying out the many components of Tesla's 'moat' i.e. why they cannot be caught or passed by competitors with more resources but late to the party. It is the sum of the parts that determines how large the moat is and how long it will keep Tesla the worlds most advanced and effective EV manufacturer. Unlike a Wall, the individual components of Tesla's mote are not static but changing dynamically over time. Some gain while others diminish as what portion of the total moat they represent and the size and consequence of the total moat will increase or decrease as they do. Tesla has built its moat due to foresight, pace of innovation, willingness to take risks if payoff seems large. Even a cyborg dragon will not overcome a large moat unless it exceeds the leaders pace of innovation long enough to catch up and then overtake the leader.
It is certainly true that the single biggest component of Tesla's total moat is deciding to invest in the biggest and best battery manufacturing factory in the world with all that involves in advanced automation and innovations improving efficiency. It is not the total moat.
Elon, J.B., Jeff Dahl, etc. would not agree that cell performance doesn't matter. It's why they support Dahl's group. It's why they watch new developments like a hawk so they will not lose this qualitative portion of the moat. Improvements in cell performance are why a LR Model 3 has 320+ mile range, with good performance, and very low pack degradation over time and cycles. It's why Tesla can develop and deliver electric Semi trucks with up to 500 miles of range with fast recharge and long lifetimes when others cannot.
Last, JB, Dahl, etc. would not support your assertion that improvements in high performance cells can be as easily duplicated just by slicing up a few samples for analysis. If this was the case Samsung, LG and BYD etc. would be closer to parity with Tesla batteries than they are. I've spoken with cathode nanotech company staff and one point they emphasized is that cell chemistry changes effect every aspect of the cell performance characteristics and those matter to the end users of batteries.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
NO comments on this elon tweet ?
Elon Musk: "Feels like a show & tell weekend. I wonder what the cat dragged in …"
Are we not speculators ?
Have we no curiosity ?
Enquiring minds want to know !
I’ve started to become numb to his tweets.
What Happyend to BI!
Gen Theraphy?
It's starting to look like Tesla has turned a corner on its latest crisis
Gen Theraphy?
It's starting to look like Tesla has turned a corner on its latest crisis
Incompetent as usual. "Tecent" instead of Tencent. "Has returned 1000% since it's IPO", which was at $17...
Thumper
Active Member
dc_h
Active Member
The point of trade and all exchange of ideas is mutual benefit. Tesla May have a lot to gain by sharing some IP. Reducing cobalt use by the first and second largest battery producers will help contain costs for Tesla also. Tesla is fighting over 100 million annual car sales, only a million of which are EV now. Sharing data and getting access to improved manufacturing capabilities in China will help Tesla attack ICE sales faster, even if it helps CATL. China also may be ahead in some AI so having access to more resources may help the FSD. It’s a risk, but if you don’t believe in moats, speed is your weapon.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Article
