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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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As an investor, the Munro breakdown actually quite surprising. It showed Elon and crew are really doing something special in every aspect compared to the rest of the auto industry. That level of integration of systems as well as cost efficiency only can happen with a well developed organization.

As such, this is clearly a company that will obtain cheap capital with no shortage of providers in the future. This is just reality.

I think the bear argument on a capital raise is farcical given what Tesla is doing here and it’s hard to keep people from wanting to see more and being apart of it.

It also bodes well for Y and other vehicles since there is so much that can be carry over vs redoing it based on interior styling (no switch banks and such). Much lower NRE design cost, along with carry over software.
 
About that Netflix. Wow.

Screen Shot 2018-07-17 at 8.20.23 AM copy.png Screen Shot 2018-07-17 at 8.20.48 AM copy.png

Check out that volume. Practically every short seller day trader dumped after the earnings report before the close of first extended hour. If I was a day trader, I would have loved to take that bet. I knew Netflix subscriptions were being dumped by everyone I knew.

I guess selling crap doesn't sell as well as they thought it would. Currently at 373, so still up from beginning of year, but different goals now. Probably taking a medium term correction for as long as they have TDS.

Elon: don't sell crap.
 
Well I keep hearing how people want SUV's not sedans.

Just so you hear something else, my Model S holds more than a lot of SUVs and looks sleeker and gets better range. The Model 3 is dang near as big inside and looks sleeker and sportier than SUVs, and gets 318 miles of range by extrapolating my little 300 mile run last weekend. Don't need a Model Y. The only person of whom I know that needs an SUV is my sister-in-law who is so overweight she can't get into an ordinary car.

I bought my 3 because I knew it would be years before much else came out. Why wait? Why drive a gas sucking hunk of rust that spews pollution and noise? I was saving money for this a dozen years ago.
 
Samsung has a comparable 2170 cell. Is the chemistry even patented for Tesla's cells?

It may not be patented, but their chemistry is proprietary. No one outside Tesla and Panasonic knows the exact formulation, and Panasonic is not free to use that same chemistry for batteries that it sells to anyone else. Knowing Prof. Dahl's work, I'm sure that they are constantly tweaking the chemistry, and they play those cards very close to their vest.
 
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It also bodes well for Y and other vehicles since there is so much that can be carry over vs redoing it based on interior styling (no switch banks and such). Much lower NRE design cost, along with carry over software.

yes to me the teardown findings are as significant as the production ramp. the real money is about those two things right now. most everything else is noise.
 
Just so you hear something else, my Model S holds more than a lot of SUVs and looks sleeker and gets better range. The Model 3 is dang near as big inside and looks sleeker and sportier than SUVs, and gets 318 miles of range by extrapolating my little 300 mile run last weekend. Don't need a Model Y. The only person of whom I know that needs an SUV is my sister-in-law who is so overweight she can't get into an ordinary car.

I bought my 3 because I knew it would be years before much else came out. Why wait? Why drive a gas sucking hunk of rust that spews pollution and noise? I was saving money for this a dozen years ago.

AGreed. Not many things an SUV can do that a model s can’t do better. AWD, voluminous hatch plus frunk, third row for soccer team transport.
 
Most bulls would tell you Tesla needs all those lines dedicated to the model 3 to be able to keep up with its demand. If so, sharing lines would cut into earnings that would otherwise be received by model 3.
Understand, but long term it makes more sense to make 500000 combined 3Y in USA and same in China, than 500000 3’s in USA and 500000 Y’s in China.
I’d also like to keep the waiting list at 2-3 months for the next year or two.
 
Understand, but long term it makes more sense to make 500000 combined 3Y in USA and same in China, than 500000 3’s in USA and 500000 Y’s in China.
I’d also like to keep the waiting list at 2-3 months for the next year or two.

Sharing the lines very well may be the lesser of the two evils. It will be interesting to see what happens. I’ve been under the impression they would be using a new factory for the Y, and don’t recall any evidence from Tesla to believe otherwise.
 
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Sharing the lines very well may be the lesser of the two evils. It will be interesting to see what happens. I’ve been under the impression they would be using a new factory for the Y, and don’t recall any evidence from Tesla to believe otherwise.

Yes, in one of the investor calls Elon clearly said that the Model Y would not be built at Fremont, that it would be built elsewhere. (Not that he can't change his mind.)
 
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So when did this transaction occur? Because the guy managing this fund is the one quoted in a bunch of FUD articles about being disappointed with Musk, with the implication funds would pull money out. lol

they report activity during the quarter ended 6/30
so anywhere between apr-jun

the guy was just making a point he wanted peaceful execution. the media may have made it sound more dire. but he was just calmly making a point, not spreading fud
 
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This report has a really, really critical flaw:

The latter I refer to as “shadow mode” because the data streams in these vehicles (whether under manual or Autopilot control) is available to be used for training the neural networks that perform the various components of the perception-control task.
The problem is that the cars aren't transmitting data.

You can hook up any Model S/X/3 to a WiFi network and monitor the router usage. The payloads it's uploading are quite small (largest I saw was 20 MB), certainly not large enough to be either compressed or uncompressed video data, and especially not for 8 separate cameras. I can't test for 4G connections, but I doubt that Tesla would be using this to stream video, as it would get quite expensive.

Since the most challenging part of autonomous driving is rapid object identification from video feeds, it doesn't seem that Tesla cars are currently "uploading data" in any meaningful way.
 
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This report has a really, really critical flaw:

The latter I refer to as “shadow mode” because the data streams in these vehicles (whether under manual or Autopilot control) is available to be used for training the neural networks that perform the various components of the perception-control task.
The problem is that the cars aren't transmitting data.

You can hook up any Model S/X/3 to a WiFi network and monitor the router usage. The payloads it's uploading are quite small (largest I saw was 20 MB), certainly not large enough to be either compressed or uncompressed video data, and especially not for 8 separate cameras. I can't test for 4G connections, but I doubt that Tesla would be using this to stream video, as it would get quite expensive.

Since the most challenging part of autonomous driving is rapid object identification from video feeds, it doesn't seem that Tesla cars are currently "uploading data" in any meaningful way.
And full unfiltered vid streams are the only useful data to upload?
 
And full unfiltered vid streams are the only useful data to upload?

If you're trying to train an AI system to identify objects in a video feed, yes. You train the AI with video feeds and training data.

Highways are the easiest target. While you're moving fast, they're also the most predictable. There are no stop signs on highways, no traffic lights, no pedestrian crossings, etc. Typically, lanes are much wider and the road condition much better than normal roads.

For Tesla to start moving towards full self driving or L4/L5, they're going to need to start training their cars on public roads. They're going to need to train it to see traffic signals and signs. They're going to need that video data.

Which is why it was concerning that Tesla recorded zero autonomous miles driven on California roads in 2017.
 
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Which is why it was concerning that Tesla recorded zero autonomous miles driven on California roads in 2017.

Until you read the requirements and find that a Tesla with the hands-on-wheel check still active can still run FSD code. As long at the driver does not exert enough force to deactivate it, the FSD testing is valid and not required to be reported.
 
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