General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mspohr]

Little noted among the good news, was the branding shift away from Elon = Tesla today. This will shift the story from Elon vs shorts, or Elon vs pedo Gus (just kidding, he was a troglodyte-look it up). Getting the teams out to talk about their big news was great. Karpathy on AI, the chip superstar from Apple and Intel, JB on batteries, all now businesses that could be billion dollar co’s outside of Tesla. Rebranding Tesla as the company Elon got started, but now several businesses with geniuses running point on AI, chip development, battery chemistry and the global sales guy and the quiet finance guy. It makes the corporate brand appear more stable than the 50 billion dollar startup run by the eccentric genius. ‘I hope this is phase one of rebranding tsla and a sign of the simpler more effective corporate structure paying off already.

Great call. Definitely the best ER I’ve ever been on.

I certainly enjoyed the additional AI and battery information but I'm a nerd. I don't know if the stock guys appreciated it, though. They seem to be only interested in finance and accounts but not the big picture.

 

[MartinAustin]

Goodcarbadcar .net now shows Model 3 figures from InsideEVs... -

U.S.A. Car Sales July 2018

1. Corolla 26,754
2. Camry 26,311
2. Civic 26,311
4. Accord 24,927
5. Sentra 19,362
6. Altima 16,015
7. Model 3 14,250
8. Elantra 13,753

Pretty nice going...

 

[Yuri_G]

Goodcarbadcar .net now shows Model 3 figures from InsideEVs... -

U.S.A. Car Sales July 2018

1. Corolla 26,754
2. Camry 26,311
2. Civic 26,311
4. Accord 24,927
5. Sentra 19,362
6. Altima 16,015
7. Model 3 14,250
8. Elantra 13,753

Pretty nice going...

Nice chart with YOY sales here:

July 2018 YTD U.S. Passenger Car Sales Rankings - Best-Selling Cars In America -

Already looking bad for ice manufacturers.

 

[EinSV]

Goodcarbadcar .net now shows Model 3 figures from InsideEVs... -

U.S.A. Car Sales July 2018

1. Corolla 26,754
2. Camry 26,311
2. Civic 26,311
4. Accord 24,927
5. Sentra 19,362
6. Altima 16,015
7. Model 3 14,250
8. Elantra 13,753

Pretty nice going...

Definitely nice going.

Also, all of those cars are significantly cheaper than the Model 3 (especially versions currently shipping).

Model 3 is probably already the number 1 or 2 car* in the U.S. in terms of total revenue.

*Not No. 1 or 2 passenger vehicle since several pickups sell more.

 

[mspohr]

Definitely nice going.

Also, all of those cars are significantly cheaper than the Model 3 (especially versions currently shipping).

Model 3 is probably already the number 1 or 2 car* in the U.S. in terms of total revenue.

*Not 1 or 2 passenger vehicle since several pickups sell more.

Interesting.
If you sort by YTD, almost all of the cars with significant sales (more than 10,000) have year to year declines. Tesla M3 with 34,700 sales is listed as 0% change because "divide by zero" so it should be listed as N/A change.
ICE manufacturers should be very concerned.

 

[shlokavica22]

Nice chart with YOY sales here:

July 2018 YTD U.S. Passenger Car Sales Rankings - Best-Selling Cars In America -

Already looking bad for ice manufacturers.

It might get very interesting much earlier than anticipated.
The ICE manufacturers made huge effort to shift customers demand towards the more expensive CUVs/SUVs. Almost all of their focus now is towards those segments.
Suddenly Tesla rejuvenated that segment, by making it look cool again.

Two additional points related to that:

• In this video
  the Autoline host claimed that in the US, on average, the sedans are sold with $400 loss. Anyone can confirm that?
• I remember reading a statistic, showing that rollovers are the main cause for injuries/death during an accident. Anyone else with this info? I feel that this point should be highlighted a lot..

 

[dmunjal]

Interesting. There still seem to be plenty of superrich people living in Sweden, though, and the country seems to be doing fine.

Of course, >100% taxation (something I've only seen in Sweden) is really quite different from 92%, and is slightly beyond confiscatory. The formal economic studies on what the optimum rate for maximizing the government budget (i.e. the rate above which people would evade the income tax faster than the tax raised money) have given results between 70%-90%.

What do you think of Hauser's Law? Empirical data seems to back it up.

"Hauser's law is the proposition that, in the United States, federal tax revenues since World War II have always been approximately equal to 19.5% of GDP, regardless of wide fluctuations in the marginal tax rate.[1] Historically, since the end of World War II, federal tax receipts as a percentage of gross domestic productaveraged 17.9%, with a range from 14.4% to 20.9% between 1946 - 2007."

 

[Foghat]

In July alone, there were 60k scheduled test drives for model 3.

The biggest surge in orders has been for AWD variant.

Tesla hasn’t even gotten close to 35k market in North America, because production is being outpaced by 50k+ market demand and it doesn’t look like it will be losing steam any time soon. I can’t fathom what Europe& Asia demand looks like now.

The signs are there, model 3 is the looking to be the multi trillion dollar industry disrupting vehicle.

Now it’s a matter of seeing what that looks like since we are going into uncharted waters as far as depth and breadth this is about to penetrate for years to come.

 

[MP3Mike]

In this video the Autoline host claimed that in the US, on average, the sedans are sold with $400 loss. Anyone can confirm that?

$400 loss to who? The manufacturer? No. The Dealer? Probably. Dealers make almost all of their money on warranty work, service, accessories, and used car sales.

 

[shlokavica22]

$400 loss to who? The manufacturer? No. The Dealer? Probably. Dealers make almost all of their money on warranty work, service, accessories, and used car sales.

I don't remember if he specified that. The context was about the margin between the different segments. So he compared the sedans with $400 loss and the Pick Up's with up to $2000 profit.

 

[dandurston]

Wasnt Elon/Tesla going to report Autopilot statistics? Did they forget that?

I think that is planned for the quarterly deliveries report, not the earnings report. So first one is out early October.

 

[Kenriko]

And... This made my day, enjoy: r/wallstreetbets - Waiting on this 75k Tesla put post...

 

[hiroshiy]

Huh, I wasn't expecting this twist at the end.

That's always the norm for all Japanese (media). They always have to say something to damage Tesla.

 

[trils0n]

I think that is planned for the quarterly deliveries report, not the earnings report. So first one is out early October.

I thought it was delivery report as well, but I could also see it not getting past the lawyers.


(Totally off topic: Good luck w/ the X-Mid Tent, if you're that Dan Durston. Saw your video explaining the design and setup and thought hmm, "designed from 1st principles" sounds like an Elon/Tesla fan)

 

[Yuri_G]

That's always the norm for all Japanese (media). They always have to say something to damage Tesla.

Good to know the FUD is not just US based

 

[ZachF]

How well can it mine bitcoin???!!

If your car was mining bitcoin while it was driving itself and crashed... could you sue the car for distracted driving?

 

[strood]

And... This made my day, enjoy: r/wallstreetbets - Waiting on this 75k Tesla put post...

Here it is
Here you go ya vultures

 

[ZeApelido]

What do you think of Hauser's Law? Empirical data seems to back it up.

"Hauser's law is the proposition that, in the United States, federal tax revenues since World War II have always been approximately equal to 19.5% of GDP, regardless of wide fluctuations in the marginal tax rate.[1] Historically, since the end of World War II, federal tax receipts as a percentage of gross domestic productaveraged 17.9%, with a range from 14.4% to 20.9% between 1946 - 2007."

Interesting. Believable. I bet the effect on income distribution is different though.

 

[Intl Professor]

In July alone, there were 60k scheduled test drives for model 3.

The biggest surge in orders has been for AWD variant.

Tesla hasn’t even gotten close to 35k market in North America, because production is being outpaced by 50k+ market demand and it doesn’t look like it will be losing steam any time soon. I can’t fathom what Europe& Asia demand looks like now.

The signs are there, model 3 is the looking to be the multi trillion dollar industry disrupting vehicle.

Now it’s a matter of seeing what that looks like since we are going into uncharted waters as far as depth and breadth this is about to penetrate for years to come.

Our generation's Model T.

 

[techmaven]

Why not? No problem. I tried not to bring my words into the translation.

Original Article: (paywall but free with registration)
パナソニック、ＥＶ電池セル３割増産　テスラ共同工場が世界最大に

Panasonic will increase battery cell manufacturing capacity by 30% from now by the end of 2018, at the Gigafactory in Nevada, USA., which they co-operate with American auto manufaturer Tesla. The planned annual capacity is 35 GWh (Giga means 1 billion) and the batteries are supplied to Tesla's Electric Vehicle, "Model 3". Tesla had production issues from last fall, but it is being resolved. Hence the capacity increase. One year late from the original plan, this is going to be the world biggest battery factory.

Panasonic adds three production lines, totalling 13 lines, to make lithium-ion batteries, to accomodate Tesla's Model 3 production target of 5000 cars per week. The latest production lines are 20%-30% more efficient than existing lines. Total investment of the Gigafactory is five billion dollars (approximately 5000-oku Japanese yen). According to sources, Panasonic pays one third of this investment. At the factory, Panasonic is responsible for upstream production of battery manufacturing (cell manufacturing), and Tesla is responsible for downstream production (assembly).

Model 3 is a very popular car with 500,000 reservations by last summer. However, Tesla struggled to complete fully automated production process and they made less than 3000 cars per week, at the end of May 2018. As a result Panasonic's cell manufacturing lines didn't run full capacity, negatively affecting Panasonic's financials.

At the end of June, Tesla quickly increased Model 3 production up to 5000 cars per week, temporarily. Panasonic was forced to redirect cells for home batteries to Model 3 to cope with the demand. That's why Panasonic plans to increase cell production capacity to originally planned 35 GWh, to support Model 3 stable weekly production of 5000 cars.

Tesla eventually plans to produce 10000 Model 3 cars per week. At that time the Gigafactory need to be expanded and bring the annual production capacity to 50 GWh. Tesla is running out of cash right now and the future is not clear.

Thanks very much for the effort. Unfortunately, I think the author is quite messed up. Sigh. There was probably real information that was given to this author. But no way 50 GWh is required for 10k/week Model 3's. Pretty sloppy reporting.

Again, thanks for your effort.