Those 3 vehicles being compared makes me think UBS just bought Munro's report (They used Munro previously for a Bolt teardown), because Munro's report contains a side-by-side of those three vehicles. Munro also talks about 'military-grade tech.' If so, this article makes it seem like they came to different conclusions than Munro, which might just be someone screwing around with their interpretation, either through stupidity or malice. Munro was very clear on his conclusions.
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Summary and deep insight from a 3 day Evercore factory tour:
Worth a read with plenty of details
Here are some interesting takeaways :
About the tent:
"Given the speed with which the facility was put in place and the associated capex, ignoring the building’s fabric, it looked very much like general assembly at other auto plants which we have visited."
"The production process involves only 43 steps/stations, 25-33% of the number found in traditional auto."
"It is worth noting that even Musk’s estimates about Tesla making potentially 1m cars a year in 2020 do not require Fremont to operate at 10,000 cars a week, because he hopes Tesla’s Chinese factory will be in operating by then."
"Panel gaps (chassis build quality) seems to have improved notably and, according to Tesla employees (that have worked at premium brands), are on par with German premium cars. Our subjective impressions confirm that the gap to BMW, Audi, and Mercedes is definitely less pronounced than it was in the past."
"Based off our tour and what we saw, we see no reason why Stamping and General Assembly should not be able to handle 7k to 8k today, and even potentially 10k units, with very little incremental Capex."
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/08...-s-what-s-really-going-on-in-Tesla-s-factory/
Worth a read with plenty of details
Here are some interesting takeaways :
About the tent:
"Given the speed with which the facility was put in place and the associated capex, ignoring the building’s fabric, it looked very much like general assembly at other auto plants which we have visited."
"The production process involves only 43 steps/stations, 25-33% of the number found in traditional auto."
"It is worth noting that even Musk’s estimates about Tesla making potentially 1m cars a year in 2020 do not require Fremont to operate at 10,000 cars a week, because he hopes Tesla’s Chinese factory will be in operating by then."
"Panel gaps (chassis build quality) seems to have improved notably and, according to Tesla employees (that have worked at premium brands), are on par with German premium cars. Our subjective impressions confirm that the gap to BMW, Audi, and Mercedes is definitely less pronounced than it was in the past."
"Based off our tour and what we saw, we see no reason why Stamping and General Assembly should not be able to handle 7k to 8k today, and even potentially 10k units, with very little incremental Capex."
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/08...-s-what-s-really-going-on-in-Tesla-s-factory/
RobStark
Well-Known Member
One more
"We believe the same is also true for the Paint Shop when it comes to reaching 8k units a week, with some incremental Capex potentially required to get to 10k units"
I know this will not stop the FUD about environmental permits limiting the paint shop to 5k vehicles per week BUT IT SHOULD.
Elon Musk Confronts a Fateful Tweet and an ‘Excruciating’ Year
It appears it is not just some of us that feel a COO would be a good idea. The man is human. he needs a COO.
It appears it is not just some of us that feel a COO would be a good idea. The man is human. he needs a COO.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
I’ve worried about this day for a while. Frankly I’ve worried Elon might kick the bucket if he keeps at this pace. He needs to put on the brakes and rest for a while. I hope he finds a way to do that while his companies find more senior management to take on some of the burden.
Prediction: Before this month is out, Tesla board will announce Elon’s taking a leave of absense for a while due to exhaustion.
Would also not be surprised if the board also says the Tesla-going-private plan is slowed down or even postponed.
(Please: If you disagree, fine, but please respond and say why rather than just knee-jerk click the thumbs-down icon. Cheers
)
Prediction: Before this month is out, Tesla board will announce Elon’s taking a leave of absense for a while due to exhaustion.
Would also not be surprised if the board also says the Tesla-going-private plan is slowed down or even postponed.
(Please: If you disagree, fine, but please respond and say why rather than just knee-jerk click the thumbs-down icon. Cheers
)
Needs to go private. Shorts are a threat to tsla. Chanos and his ilk have a chance to break Elon and tesla.I’ve worried about this day for a while. Frankly I’ve worried Elon might kick the bucket if he keeps at this pace. He needs to put on the brakes and rest for a while. I hope he finds a way to do that while his companies find more senior management to take on some of the burden.
Prediction: Before this month is out, Tesla board will announce Elon’s taking a leave of absense for a while due to exhaustion.
Would also not be surprised if the board also says the Tesla-going-private plan is slowed down or even postponed.
(Please: If you disagree, fine, but please respond and say why rather than just knee-jerk click the thumbs-down icon. Cheers
I’ve worried about this day for a while. Frankly I’ve worried Elon might kick the bucket if he keeps at this pace. He needs to put on the brakes and rest for a while. I hope he finds a way to do that while his companies find more senior management to take on some of the burden.
Prediction: Before this month is out, Tesla board will announce Elon’s taking a leave of absense for a while due to exhaustion.
Would also not be surprised if the board also says the Tesla-going-private plan is slowed down or even postponed.
(Please: If you disagree, fine, but please respond and say why rather than just knee-jerk click the thumbs-down icon. Cheers
Compare to what? The days before space X had a sequence of launch failure? The days when Tesla model S delay the company on the brink of bankruptcy?
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
The shorts really are loathsome creatures; The monsters that peddle misinformation about Tesla are a couple tiers lower still. Can't wait 'till TSLA is gone and Tesla is private. I think we should all have a party... long pants & long sleeves required.
Reread times article, only new red flags are rumors of recreational drug use, and looking for someone to help run tesla. Lack of sleep, ambien and crying are the usual for elon. Also, SpaceX buying into tesla is new to me.
I’ve worried about this day for a while. Frankly I’ve worried Elon might kick the bucket if he keeps at this pace. He needs to put on the brakes and rest for a while. I hope he finds a way to do that while his companies find more senior management to take on some of the burden.
Prediction: Before this month is out, Tesla board will announce Elon’s taking a leave of absense for a while due to exhaustion.
Would also not be surprised if the board also says the Tesla-going-private plan is slowed down or even postponed.
(Please: If you disagree, fine, but please respond and say why rather than just knee-jerk click the thumbs-down icon. Cheers
As others have noted, 2008 was the existential crisis, shorts tactics just makes us all question whether or not humanity is worth saving. Not taking Tesla private would be more emotionally painful.
Edit. Note that Elon doesn't like to lose. Taking a break before the deal is done would essentially be admitting defeat.
Why would Elon give an interview to the NYT now? If he were down in the dumps, it seems unlikely that he would turn to the NYT as a shoulder to cry on. I believe Elon when he emphasizes the pain endured this year. I also believe that he is being genuine with the NYT, but I doubt that the purpose is to show his soft underbelly. I suspect that there is more. I do not view this as an attempt at damage control. If it is ‘an attempt’ at something, I suspect that it is of a more aggressive nature. Despite his sacrifices, fatigue, crushing stress, etc, I think this NYT interview fits into Elon’s plan for the long game. Elon’s friends have stated that when most stressed, Elon becomes hyper rational. The NYT interview is intentional.
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Why yes, the source is WSB, how did you guess?
r/wallstreetbets - A word of advice to all the aspiring entrepreneurs in this subreddit
From the interview with the NYT
Genuine question here : what is Elon referring to when he says that short-seller's narrative can possibly result in Tesla's destruction? Just to be clear : this is not about mundane stuff like talking down the stock price for a few months or even years, we are talking about full blown bankruptcy ('destruction'), and he seems very earnest in this interview. It's not some off-hand April Fool's joke on Twitter. I honestly see no way how shorts could but Elon clearly has an infinitely deeper insight in the company and he is evidently worried about the short story. That means he sees a risk that I don't see. Shorts have been talking down Tesla build quality for years, demand has only grown : so it isn't that. Shorts have been trying to depress the stock for years, still keeps on rising and rewarding employees : so it isn't that. Shorts have been trying to shut Tesla out of the capital market but the company has raised with ease. And besides, there is no need to raise due to profitability/cash flow positivity : so it isn't that. US incentives are running out naturally for Tesla, and sales restrictions on Tesla are over time easing, not getting harder. Not that either. So my question remains. What risk are we missing that is so front and center on Elon's mind.
Through what mechanism can the short's narrative lead to Tesla's destruction?
NYT said:
Genuine question here : what is Elon referring to when he says that short-seller's narrative can possibly result in Tesla's destruction? Just to be clear : this is not about mundane stuff like talking down the stock price for a few months or even years, we are talking about full blown bankruptcy ('destruction'), and he seems very earnest in this interview. It's not some off-hand April Fool's joke on Twitter. I honestly see no way how shorts could but Elon clearly has an infinitely deeper insight in the company and he is evidently worried about the short story. That means he sees a risk that I don't see. Shorts have been talking down Tesla build quality for years, demand has only grown : so it isn't that. Shorts have been trying to depress the stock for years, still keeps on rising and rewarding employees : so it isn't that. Shorts have been trying to shut Tesla out of the capital market but the company has raised with ease. And besides, there is no need to raise due to profitability/cash flow positivity : so it isn't that. US incentives are running out naturally for Tesla, and sales restrictions on Tesla are over time easing, not getting harder. Not that either. So my question remains. What risk are we missing that is so front and center on Elon's mind.
Through what mechanism can the short's narrative lead to Tesla's destruction?
I'd say there is a danger in a massive amount of continued, long lasting, 360 FUD attack (like we see now) pressuring some of the big institutional shareholders to divest TSLA. Not because their leadership doesn't know better, because I think some of them stayed long enough to have demonstrated they believe in the story (and the man). However they may have a hard time keeping their own investors/clients/stakeholders at bay if all they hear everywhere is how Tesla is headed for the cliff.
We are in a vacuum now on the positive news side of things until Q3 deliveries or even ER confirming gross profit.
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Sean Wagner
Member
By the way, the comments below that FT Alphaville article are not indicative at all of the hatefest [sorry to say] usually going on.
Too many dry facts, I presume.
I've been worrying far more about Elon Musk's health [and tweeting intemperance] than about short sellers. The company is actually valued quite nicely, and has not had problems accessing the markets.
As someone somewhere noted, the opposition to Tesla will not disappear, though in my mind, the company will be hard to stop now that 5'000 Model 3s are a-rollin' off the lines every week, batteries and all. It's a seminal moment in the history of electric propulsion, and will also do wonders for the more general public's perceptions.
Hotcakes should be envious of the Model Y's future success.
How specifically? The shorts have been at this game for years, crying about the brand. Remember the early 2012 days, remember the fires, remember the front suspension, remember about the government loan and how they just ride the corporate welfare train. Yet we are still standing at 400k+ people eagerly waiting for a M3. If there is no truth to the FUD then you can amplify all you want but what you get out of it is actually positive publicity for Tesla. Because people are going to talk to their friend, neighbour etc about that Tesla they have. And if that friend, neighbour shows them the car and they can see for themselves how fab it is, consumers convert to it. It has worked for Tesla for 5+ years now. Why would it stop working today?
How can that destroy Tesla? Sure, it will depress the share price for a while? So what? Nevermind that, in actuality, Tesla gained large institutional shareholders, all through the same relentless negative short selling campaign (most recently Tencent and the Saudi fund). In fact, institutional demand for Tesla is strong enough that it can simply ignore "exemplary governance" guidelines that prevent other large institutions like the Norwegian fund to pile in as well.
To me both explanations above fall flat in the face of simple observations.
K_Dizzle
Member
They could release August sales numbers
He's paranoid. I know I get dislikes, but it is evident.
Of course shorts _want_ to destroy Tesla, but they don't have any means to do so.
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