General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[JRP3]

Can we hope/expect that Tesla will one day add this via a software push?

Probably not. I think it's tied to having to limit the amount of current a battery can take at different states of charge. If they allowed stronger regen they'd have to disable it at higher SOC to avoid over volting the pack, which would lead to an uneven driving experience the general public would probably not enjoy.

 

[The Blue Owl]

I could not find anything about this in the press or social media nor am I able to open the link to FT as a subs is needed.....

Which is why I quoted the relevant parts.

 

[Reciprocity]

Why is that only Tesla makes cars that should never crash? Never break down or require towing? If we have an article Everytime someone runs out of gas it would be bigger then the existing internet. Yet Everytime a Tesla had a flat tire, everyone wonders if Elon is going to go help change the tire. If I recall the Josh brown death on auto pilot was the only death in a Tesla at the time. Since, I know that someone going at extremely high speed in their dads P90D hit a tree or pole. I remember Elon saying that you really have to try to kill yourself in Tesla. The numbers are rediculusly low per million miles. That being stated, auto pilot is more dangerous then the safest system every made, but it's much safer then the lack of having the system. I don't know what the ratio is, but the net is very positive.

There is also a theory, yet to be explored, that the Tesla involved in thet recent firetruck incident was recently completely blacked out and may have had tint over the camera and sensors that may have made them less effective. I know what stationary objects and all that.. but other factors can impact performance.

Tesla has had some gnarly accidents that people have walk away from and claimed that the car saved their lives and the stats seem to support that.

It will be interesting to see how the fire truck incident shakes out, but to me.. I pay attention when I'm on autopilot though I am more relaxed. The car drives way less aggressively then I do, so it's much safer even I was texting (jk).

 

[Bobfitz1]

Probably not. I think it's tied to having to limit the amount of current a battery can take at different states of charge. If they allowed stronger regen they'd have to disable it at higher SOC to avoid over volting the pack, which would lead to an uneven driving experience the general public would probably not enjoy.

Very good point @JRP3. I rarely charge my Roadster to 100% because I rarely need max range. When I do, I've learned to be double careful until it is enabled again, as you become so used to the regen slowing the car as needed most of the time. Likewise when regen is disabled due to low outside temperature. That said, it would be easy for them to program a reminder when an owner overrides the default standard regen to choose more aggressive setting. It reminds you regen will be disabled if SOC is over 90 or 100%, do you still want to set regen to high?
Given the level of SW sophistication built into every facet of Tesla cars (especially Autopilot) there is no reason I can see this should not be simple for them to implement and accommodate owners who appreciate stronger regen braking. I'm not certain but I think MS and MX may have a little less regen than Roadster but not a lot less. My guess is that existing owners used to that level would generally prefer to have than in their Model 3.

 

[Starno]

I think Tesla Model S/X should at least sell as much as Porsche : around 230k.
250k a year is probably where it will start to stagnate.

 

[sundaymorning]

I think Tesla Model S/X should at least sell as much as Porsche : around 230k.
250k a year is probably where it will start to stagnate.

An old timer like myself really gets anxious around this time of the year when Tesla starts to announce full year guidance for the MS and X. While I think their numbers will be superb I hope they underpromise. MS thread is showing a 3 month waiting period, indicting demand remains strong. I use to love Porsche’s, but the S is so darn sexy.

 

[RobStark]

I think Tesla Model S/X should at least sell as much as Porsche : around 230k.
250k a year is probably where it will start to stagnate.

Porsche starts at $48k with a compact crossover, the most popular type of vehicle.

I don't see Tesla Gen II vehicles selling anywhere near 250k units per year. At least not at anywhere near current prices.

 

[RobStark]

The Tesla effect: Tahoe-Reno Industrial Center almost out of land after 74,000-acre sale

 

[Words of HABIT]

Why is that only Tesla makes cars that should never crash? Never break down or require towing? If we have an article Everytime someone runs out of gas it would be bigger then the existing internet. Yet Everytime a Tesla had a flat tire, everyone wonders if Elon is going to go help change the tire. If I recall the Josh brown death on auto pilot was the only death in a Tesla at the time. Since, I know that someone going at extremely high speed in their dads P90D hit a tree or pole. I remember Elon saying that you really have to try to kill yourself in Tesla. The numbers are rediculusly low per million miles. That being stated, auto pilot is more dangerous then the safest system every made, but it's much safer then the lack of having the system. I don't know what the ratio is, but the net is very positive.

There is also a theory, yet to be explored, that the Tesla involved in thet recent firetruck incident was recently completely blacked out and may have had tint over the camera and sensors that may have made them less effective. I know what stationary objects and all that.. but other factors can impact performance.

Tesla has had some gnarly accidents that people have walk away from and claimed that the car saved their lives and the stats seem to support that.

It will be interesting to see how the fire truck incident shakes out, but to me.. I pay attention when I'm on autopilot though I am more relaxed. The car drives way less aggressively then I do, so it's much safer even I was texting (jk).

Well stated. The amount of lives that autopilot has already saved will never be known as these stories never make the news. And Teslas are proven to be the safest cars on the planet.

I do have a concern with Tesla in their portrayal of the need for speed, specifically rapid acceleration. I have been driving for 34 years and have never pressed the metal to the metal from 0 - 60 mi./hr, nor do I expect to do so once driving a M3. It is great to know that you will have the acceleration when needed in case of emergency (outrunning zombie apocalypse?). IMO opinion there is, and will be a greater tendency once M3 is delivered to non MS/MX owners, of drivers to misuse their newfound power. This will serve to negate some of the safety benefits of having autopilot and the safest built car on the planet.

Daniel

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

It depends on how long (& how many miles) you intend to keep the car and how much you'd use it for road trips. My mid-2013 Model S has 99k+ miles and its range is down about 5% to 250 EPA miles per full range charge. The are some routes I have to drive quite slowly to make it from one SCh to the next. E.g. from Mt. Shasta to Reno. That route has a destination charger available so I can still easily make it traveling faster, but have to wait in Susanville while charging. Whether you need the larger range depends on how and where you want to drive.

Well everything "depends". I was just offering my viewpoint on what a non-owner reservationists is deliberating on, and that the federal tax credit will have very little impact on the cancellation rate.

 

[JRP3]

I do have a concern with Tesla in their portrayal of the need for speed, specifically rapid acceleration.

I'd say they seem to be down playing that with the Model 3 since reports are it's faster than Tesla claims. Remember the 3 is still competing with performance sedans such as the BMW 3 and 0-60 times matter to many of those buyers.

 

[sub]

I think they owe a base model car to buyers who heard "It's going to be a great $35,000 car" and put down a one kilobuck deposit based on that.
When they get that base model car is a different question.
Robin

I agree, to clarify my point, Tesla doesn't owe them the 35k car first. One thing that irks me is all the Monday morning QB's that think Tesla somehow needs heir advice on running the company even though they are basing their advise on zero internal knowledge. I'm prefer to let those in charge with all the info handle things.

Very good point @JRP3. I rarely charge my Roadster to 100% because I rarely need max range. When I do, I've learned to be double careful until it is enabled again, as you become so used to the regen slowing the car as needed most of the time. Likewise when regen is disabled due to low outside temperature. That said, it would be easy for them to program a reminder when an owner overrides the default standard regen to choose more aggressive setting. It reminds you regen will be disabled if SOC is over 90 or 100%, do you still want to set regen to high?
Given the level of SW sophistication built into every facet of Tesla cars (especially Autopilot) there is no reason I can see this should not be simple for them to implement and accommodate owners who appreciate stronger regen braking. I'm not certain but I think MS and MX may have a little less regen than Roadster but not a lot less. My guess is that existing owners used to that level would generally prefer to have than in their Model 3.

Your post made me think of something, I'm not sure you were referring to the same thing here. I had an i3 and I did like the refen strength compared to our model X. It only took me a few days to make the adjustment and now the X is perfectly fine.

However, why couldn't the software compensate for reduced regen states due to temps or SOC by applying a % of brake? The driver wouldn't know the difference, safety issue solved.

 

[dc_h]

Well stated. The amount of lives that autopilot has already saved will never be known as these stories never make the news. And Teslas are proven to be the safest cars on the planet.

I do have a concern with Tesla in their portrayal of the need for speed, specifically rapid acceleration. I have been driving for 34 years and have never pressed the metal to the metal from 0 - 60 mi./hr, nor do I expect to do so once driving a M3. It is great to know that you will have the acceleration when needed in case of emergency (outrunning zombie apocalypse?). IMO opinion there is, and will be a greater tendency once M3 is delivered to non MS/MX owners, of drivers to misuse their newfound power. This will serve to negate some of the safety benefits of having autopilot and the safest built car on the planet.

Daniel

I think ICE mode would be great. Make a Tesla as slow as a moderately sporty gasoline car.

 

[ggr]

I think ICE mode would be great. Make a Tesla as slow as a moderately sporty gasoline car.

Don't forget that it should also have noticeable pauses in the acceleration to simulate gear shifts. Like many of the CVT transmission cars do.

 

[Reciprocity]

Porsche starts at $48k with a compact crossover, the most popular type of vehicle.

I don't see Tesla Gen II vehicles selling anywhere near 250k units per year. At least not at anywhere near current prices.

I agree with Rob on this one. S/X will more then likely move up segment while the loaded model 3s fill the vacuum left behind. That being stated, I think 180,000/y is possible for S/X. There are still a lot of markets to open up and model X is not nearly mature as a product and has room to grow in a larger overall segment when compared to the luxury sedan segment. I think a ratio of 2:1 X to S. The caveat being that they can manufacture that many. You have to also remember that model S is just now matured to the point where leases signed in 2017 will renew in 3 years and purchased vehicles a couple if years after that so the demand from existing owners compounds a little bit and volumes should increase at a discounted rate of growth compared to the last 5 years. Discounted because some loss, some moved to X an some to model 3. Based in the growth rate I would assume away a couple more years of modest growth for S and X over taking S the year or next and growing to 2x by 2020-2021. Again, as long as they can build then.

 

[schonelucht]

Tesla is raising money:

Tesla plugs into securitisation market for new funds

Electric carmaker Tesla is set to tap a new source of financing to fund its multibillion-dollar expansion, with the issue of a $546m bond backed by customers’ lease payments.​

How does this securitisation differ from the Warehouse agreement in terms of impact on Tesla?

 

[mutle]

Likewise when regen is disabled due to low outside temperature. That said, it would be easy for them to program a reminder when an owner overrides the default standard regen to choose more aggressive setting. It reminds you regen will be disabled if SOC is over 90 or 100%, do you still want to set regen to high?

Interestingly I have not noticed any reduction in regen on my i3 when charged to 100%, even when I drove down from Holmenkollen to Oslo, keeping the energy usage negative for 12km (and the charge at 100%). I think the reason is that a 100% charge actually leaves a buffer to not overcharge. I wonder how a S60 with Software limited 75 battery compares.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I'd say they seem to be down playing that with the Model 3 since reports are it's faster than Tesla claims. Remember the 3 is still competing with performance sedans such as the BMW 3 and 0-60 times matter to many of those buyers.

Perhaps my comment was in reference in general. Not every driver can handle properly a car faster than a McLaren race car.

 

[Bobfitz1]

An old timer like myself really gets anxious around this time of the year when Tesla starts to announce full year guidance for the MS and X. While I think their numbers will be superb I hope they underpromise. MS thread is showing a 3 month waiting period, indicting demand remains strong. I use to love Porsche’s, but the S is so darn sexy.

I can imagine an M3 Performance Plus version two or three years down the road that would blow away similar sized Porsche. From the reviews I've read, M3 handling is already as good as needed. A M3 75P (coming end of this year or early next) I think would have enough acceleration to match Porsche's of it's size/price. An M3 75P + would only need to add on a few nice to have bells and whistles (like HUD display and some external extras to make it look sportier than standard) to get there. If guys running Porsche are paying attention to what's about to happen to BMW and their 3 series sales, they are getting worried and thinking about how to respond to the threat.

 

[The Blue Owl]

How does this securitisation differ from the Warehouse agreement in terms of impact on Tesla?

This one is an asset-backed bond with a maturity date sold investors. The warehouse agreement is a short term revolving line of credit financed by a bank.