JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Sure, but what i said was correct, not everyone buying the lower priced Tesla will have a high enough tax liability to receive the full rebate.
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Sure, but what i said was correct, not everyone buying the lower priced Tesla will have a high enough tax liability to receive the full rebate.
Tesla opens another giant 50-stall Supercharger station – largest in the world
Now Tesla has built a third 50-stall Supercharger station and the second in Beijing – all equal for the largest Supercharger station in the world and consequently, the largest fast-charging station in the world.
Now Tesla has built a third 50-stall Supercharger station and the second in Beijing – all equal for the largest Supercharger station in the world and consequently, the largest fast-charging station in the world.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
It depends on how long (& how many miles) you intend to keep the car and how much you'd use it for road trips. My mid-2013 Model S has 99k+ miles and its range is down about 5% to 250 EPA miles per full range charge. The are some routes I have to drive quite slowly to make it from one SCh to the next. E.g. from Mt. Shasta to Reno. That route has a destination charger available so I can still easily make it traveling faster, but have to wait in Susanville while charging. Whether you need the larger range depends on how and where you want to drive.
I used the TurboTax online estimator to get a single data point: a married couple earning a total of $78,000 after allowed deductions will have a federal tax liability of $7,681, and be able to get the full rebate. Note that nearly half of their income would go to buying a base Model 3 (before rebate).
That is for 2017. In 2018, the couple with no children's federal tax would be 6,099. They would need to make $89,700 to have $7,500 in federal liability. (from an online calc)
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I hope you're not suggesting that people wouldn't spend more than half their yearly income to buy a vehicle.
You can live in your car, but you can't drive your house to work.
I do wonder about sleeping in a self driving car that slowly circles the city...
dc_h
Active Member
sub
Active Member
Median income in USA = 59k
Average sales price of new car = 33k
I'm thinking a few people spend half their income on a car. However, income is only part of the financial picture, net worth matters.
Average sales price of new car = 33k
I'm thinking a few people spend half their income on a car. However, income is only part of the financial picture, net worth matters.
Along with monthly payment. 5 year loan on 33k -> $6,600 a year -> 11% of 59k. Can be less than rent or a house.
Mortgage criteria is often 28%~33% debt to income.
sub
Active Member
Of course, but when and how the car was paid for wasn't the main point, just price vs income.
I tend to finance them and pay off years early. Our last 5 year loan I paid off in 6 months. We put a sizable down payment down on our X for psychological reasons but at 1.49% it wasn't a good financial move nor is paying it off early. I'll still do it because I can't stand debt.
Chickenlittle
Banned
I have not seen any posted price of a D model. Do you have inside information?
I have not seen any announcement of a P version to be made. Again do you have inside information or are you psychic?
FWIW, after yesterday's CNBC debacle provided one worthwhile nugget--Tesla's response reiterating Q1 production guidance--I updated my ramp guesstimates, with the following changes based on how 2018 has proceeded thus far plus my gut feeling for the rest of the year. To be clear, these estimates are still worth exactly what you've paid for them--zero. I still enjoy the thought experiment.
I decided that assuming Tesla actually entered 2018 at 1k/week and went up from there was foolish, so I dialed back the start to 600/week and don't hit 1k/week until the 2nd week of Feb. I also dialed back the initial weeks of each successive quarter, assuming that while Tesla will hit its goals of 2500/week by end of March and 5k/week by end of June, each quarter will start out with the first couple of weeks remaining right near the prior quarter's goal. I also updated Q3 and Q4 for Tesla to not meet the 10k/week EoY goal, as they haven't reiterated that lately. I instead now have them at 6500/week at end of Q3, and 9000/week at EoY.
I'm aware that this will probably seem overly conservative to some here, but as overly conservative has won the day so far on the Model 3 ramp, my intention here was to see what 2018 full-year Model 3 production would look like from this angle. I understand that many think that the 5k-10k jump is 'just' adding a second line including all learnings from line 1, and therefore we're likely to see that jump achieved more quickly and with less stress. I would like to agree, but will believe that when I see it play out. Conservative is the word of the day for this exercise.
The good news is it's not all that bad. My 1/3 estimate is quoted above. The updated 1/26 estimate is: 16k in Q1, 47k in Q2, 76k in Q3, and 93k in Q4 for a total as of 12/31/2018 of 234k. This compares to the original 264k in my earlier estimate. The reason I think this is good is that despite all these more conservative changes, the full year has only dropped by 11% and still ends the year well over 200k Model 3s produced. Further, I think Tesla is still likely to deliver over 300k vehicles in 2018--which would be around 200% growth in volume in a single year. Assuming S/X don't grow at all and are right at 100k delivered in 2018, that would require all Model 3s produced by Thanksgiving to be delivered in 2018--certainly doable since they're virtually all US-bound this year.
100k to 300k in a year is still pretty incredible, IMO.
DurandalAI
Member
Yeah, I’d rather my $ stay on TSLA earning me 40% returns than paying off my 3% loan... That said, I’m one of those people who are buying the base Model 3, although I will add EAP. I won’t buy FSD until it works.
No, it was just an observation. In fact I spent proportionately more, a couple of months ago, for a car I probably won't see for 4 years.
Yeah, sorry, a bit focused on 2017 tax right now...
I understand your concerns regarding "Two hundred thousand holding our for $35k base". I think everyone will agree that there are some that will wait for the $35k version (commuter car, kids college car, etc) just like I bet that some have canceled their reservations (life changes, SO found out, etc).
My thoughts:
1. Due to the positive reviews published already plus at some point customers will be able to do test drives, new buyers will meet/exceed those that dropped or are waiting.
2. With the AWD variant being leaked in the configuration page as well as AWD Vins requested I believe that additional sales volume will make up for those still waiting for the base model.
3. Some of those that were too impatient to wait for the M3, purchased either an S or X (guilty). Though it doesn't help the M3 it didn't hurt Tesla.
The above are just my thoughts. However, one thing I can guarantee. There will be FUD articles lambasting Tesla for not producing and/or not being able to produce the $35k M3 as promised. I'm actually looking forward to those articles as they seem to create buying opportunities.
Reciprocity
Active Member
It could be that just as many are waiting for 35k model as are waiting for 35k model + interior color options or SR Dual motor or any number of less then $9000 big battery upgrades. Most people do not need 310+ miles of range and currently that is the only option. I am personally waiting for Interior and dual motor but still heavily debating internally the small vs large battery. I love the idea of the large battery and the premium is fair, but its still pretty steep.
On a side note.. I talked to one of the guys at my local Tesla store that said their delivery goal for Feb is 4000 Model 3s. He also said that they deliver them very quickly after they get in and have been delivering a good number, though he would not say how many. I am in Chicago, Highland Park. He also said they where getting solar products soon, which is new for Chicago because solar city was not in this area at all.
When pressed for more numbers he said a bunch of stuff like.. they dont tell us and even if they did, I couldnt tell you.. so I have no idea how accurate it is. He is a very nice guy and I have talked to him a few times before.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
AHH But its easy to convert an IRA to a Roth IRA. If you were short 20,000 in income (to reach your 7,500) just convert 20K of IRA or 401K to a Roth IRA.
N5329K
Active Member
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