General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Ah, as in "the solution to pollution is dilution" ( not channeling Jesse Sr.)? So what do we do with HLRW? Guess!

Oh, the tragedy of the commons.

That’s a bit of a stretch...project much?

 

[AudubonB]

So what do we do with HLRW? Guess!

Oh, the tragedy of the commons.

Umm....Hot Light Reactor Water??????

 

[EinSV]

Thanks.

$230M was due in Nov 2018, and $185M due in Dec 2019. I'm having difficulty finding articles that cover how this was or will be paid.

The crack press was all over this a few months ago when payment was in doubt, now it's crickets.

I'm thinking it is fair to assume that Tesla made its $230M cash payment in November without incident. Otherwise, had there been any hiccup, we'd be swimming in FUD wash.

In another "how the heck is this flying under the radar"? development, effective December 1 Tesla appears to have agreed to pay off the $920M in convertible bonds that mature March 1 in cash.

Tesla had a December 1 deadline to choose the method of settlement for conversions taking place after December 1. Since we have no news that they made an affirmative election, it appears that they they have chosen the default "combination settlement" -- which to oversimplify essentially means they pay the face amount of the bonds in cash and any value over that during the 20 trading day "observation period" starting 22 trading days before March 1 in shares (offset by their hedge).

It's hilarious that the press hasn't picked up on this yet and keeps acting as if $360 is some magic number that Tesla is gunning for so it can avoid paying back the convertibles. Elon has made clear that Tesla wants to pay back the convertibles in cash and since the default if no election is made by December 1 is "combination settlement" -- and we haven't heard Tesla chose another option -- it appears they went the default route.

Gory details are here at pages S-31-S-32): 424B5

 

[Unpilot]

That’s a bit of a stretch...project much?

Disregard wrong quote

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ah, as in "the solution to pollution is dilution" ( not channeling Jesse Sr.)? So what do we do with HLRW? Guess!

Oh, the tragedy of the commons.

Umm....Hot Light Reactor Water??????

High Level Radioactive Waste.

 

[AudubonB]

So close and yet so far far far away

facepalm duh

 

[K3jSe7Llp7]

Ah, as in "the solution to pollution is dilution" ( not channeling Jesse Sr.)? So what do we do with HLRW? Guess!

Oh, the tragedy of the commons.

Biodegradable?!

 

[AudubonB]

Degrading the biome is not what that word means, I think.....

 

[K3jSe7Llp7]

What part of the cycle of each do you fail to understand?

Many thanks, but obviously he doesn't understand, a lot of people don't, so I'll explain. Plants take in carbon dioxide from the air from which they make their wood. When I burn the wood the carbon dioxide is returned to the air from which it came only a short time ago. When fossil fuel is burned the carbon in the carbon dioxide comes from a place far away, under the ground where it used to not be a part of the surface reservoirs of carbon. That's why burning fossil fuel is causing climate change but not burning wood.

 

[K3jSe7Llp7]

When the scale is right, this is exactly right. The principle I learned is that in the wilderness where nobody goes, a group of people should spread out a little bit and make a point of not walking in each other's footsteps, as that will minimize the impact on the environment (by spreading it out and not doing unlivable harm to any one part of the landscape).

But at a national park or a hiking trail, you don't leave the trail. Everybody walks in each other's footsteps so that our mutual impact is concentrated in as small of a space as possible (and where things like sewer systems can kick in and do their thing), thereby preserving the rest of the environment as much as possible.

When the population of the island is low enough, the ocean as toilet is a great solution. It's already the toilet for all the fish and what not that live there, and as long as the debris is within the ecosystems ability to absorb and convert into food, then that's great. But put millions or a billion people along a river upstream of the ocean and using the river / ocean as the communal toilet is a disaster.


This happens with backyard chickens - my backyard will easily handle 3-6 chickens pecking about, scratching at the weeds and compost pile, and their poop becomes fertilizer that enriches the backyard. Put hundreds of chickens into the same space and now I need a sewage system because that space can't absorb and convert that much contaminant (it stops being fertilizer and becomes contamination).

Where do you think all the poop of New York City goes?

 

[K3jSe7Llp7]

Sometimes they successfully filter out the plastic.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Where do you think all the poop of New York City goes?

To trump tower

 

[jhm]

Actually it would be closer to 940 Model 3s delivered per day. (The Camry has sold 941 cars per day so far this year.)

That doesn't seem likely to happen given Tesla's production rate and that they will probably start sending significant quantities internationally starting next year. (Of course Camry sales could tank next year...)

Camry sales have been declining through the year. So I was making an allowance for that decline.

 

[jhm]

In another "how the heck is this flying under the radar"? development, effective December 1 Tesla appears to have agreed to pay off the $920M in convertible bonds that mature March 1 in cash.

Tesla had a December 1 deadline to choose the method of settlement for conversions taking place after December 1. Since we have no news that they made an affirmative election, it appears that they they have chosen the default "combination settlement" -- which to oversimplify essentially means they pay the face amount of the bonds in cash and any value over that during the 20 trading day "observation period" starting 22 trading days before March 1 in shares (offset by their hedge).

It's hilarious that the press hasn't picked up on this yet and keeps acting as if $360 is some magic number that Tesla is gunning for so it can avoid paying back the convertibles. Elon has made clear that Tesla wants to pay back the convertibles in cash and since the default if no election is made by December 1 is "combination settlement" -- and we haven't heard Tesla chose another option -- it appears they went the default route.

Gory details are here at pages S-31-S-32): 424B5

Cool. Shall we tell the shorts?

 

[jhm]

Where do you think all the poop of New York City goes?

Alabama?

Millions of Pounds of New York Poop Are Terrorizing a Small Alabama Town

 

[EinSV]

Cool. Shall we tell the shorts?

Nah, why ruin the surprise.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla had a December 1 deadline to choose the method of settlement for conversions taking place after December 1. Since we have no news that they made an affirmative election, it appears that they they have chosen the default "combination settlement" -- which to oversimplify essentially means they pay the face amount of the bonds in cash and any value over that during the 20 trading day "observation period" starting 22 trading days before March 1 in shares (offset by their hedge).

So, the over 360 that get paid out in stock - are they new issues or purchased in the market ?

 

[EinSV]

So, the over 360 that get paid out in stock - are they new issues or purchased in the market ?

I have not looked deeply into it but my understanding is that they issue new shares but that there is no significant dilution because of the hedges that were entered into to prevent Tesla from paying extra cash or incurring significant dilution if the SP exceeds $360 as long as it stays below $512.xx. If the SP exceeds $512.xx by March no one will care about a little dilution.

 

[K3jSe7Llp7]

When I lived in San Diego I was always on the beach. After heavy rains when the systems were overwhelmed there were tampon inserters all over the beach.

Alabama?

Millions of Pounds of New York Poop Are Terrorizing a Small Alabama Town

Alabama! Your killing me! No they don't even know. It goes in big pipes from the beach a mile or two out into the.... No telling.

 

[K3jSe7Llp7]

You can remove the sulfur.

Hydrodesulfurization - Wikipedia

Doing so involves *vaporizing* the oil and filling the chamber with hydrogen gas.
Vaporizing it requires high temperatures on long chain molecules, and filling the chamber with hydrogen has a tendency to break the long chains into shorter molecules.

So you essentially end up cracking a lot of the long chains in the process of removing the sulfur.

I didn't know of this process so enjoyable to read about and analyze. Thanks, Glenn