General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Paracelsus]

GOP and Don seem pretty hell bent on eliminating solar from our energy solution book. Any momentum the other direction is welcome.

I would like to respectfully offer an alternative viewpoint here. While your point certainly appears to be the case on the surface, I would suggest that there are other possible motivations besides simply 'attempting to kill solar with the solar tariff.' Most importantly, now that solar has become a success in California, China, and across the rest of the world in a way that has brought cost down and visibility up worldwide, just what would be the benefits of implementing a well-timed tariff prior to massive solar growth in the US? For starters - Increased ability for US companies to succeed in the explosive solar growth that IS just around the corner.......increased US tax revenue from that effort.......and from both sides of the isle the ability to claim that the transition to an energy source that makes the US more competitive was a 'home-grown effort'.

Someone once told me that most Texans woke up one day on 3rd base and thought they hit a triple. That was in reference to an economy they enjoy simply because they have oil in the ground. The US has historically scrambled to rewrite its history in a similar way to make it appear it was far earlier to the table than it really was on far too many topics (slavery and a woman's right to vote, civil rights, health care, etc.). It is time for a sustainable energy revolution in the US.......and it will happen because it has been shown that the US can no longer compete at the highest levels in the global economy without it. The solar tariff will allow the US to make its own solar companies boom and tax revenue grow while being able to tell the country that we are still on 3rd base!

There has been a lot of spin in the news on the tariff. Some justified. But as a long-term Tesla investor, I have come to believe that there is much hope for sizable growth and transition behind any wall of FUD.

 

[Reciprocity]

I would like to respectfully offer an alternative viewpoint here. While your point certainly appears to be the case on the surface, I would suggest that there are other possible motivations besides simply 'attempting to kill solar with the solar tariff.' Most importantly, now that solar has become a success in California, China, and across the rest of the world in a way that has brought cost down and visibility up worldwide, just what would be the benefits of implementing a well-timed tariff prior to massive solar growth in the US? For starters - Increased ability for US companies to succeed in the explosive solar growth that IS just around the corner.......increased US tax revenue from that effort.......and from both sides of the isle the ability to claim that the transition to an energy source that makes the US more competitive was a 'home-grown effort'.

Someone once told me that most Texans woke up one day on 3rd base and thought they hit a triple. That was in reference to an economy they enjoy simply because they have oil in the ground. The US has historically scrambled to rewrite its history in a similar way to make it appear it was far earlier to the table than it really was on far too many topics (slavery and a woman's right to vote, civil rights, health care, etc.). It is time for a sustainable energy revolution in the US.......and it will happen because it has been shown that the US can no longer compete at the highest levels in the global economy without it. The solar tariff will allow the US to make its own solar companies boom and tax revenue grow while being able to tell the country that we are still on 3rd base!

There has been a lot of spin in the news on the tariff. Some justified. But as a long-term Tesla investor, I have come to believe that there is much hope for sizable growth and transition behind any wall of FUD.

Solar tariffs are all but meaningless to me. Solar is highly subsidized and that more then offsets any tariffs. The real driver for solar, beyond whats happened in the past already, is EVs. Solar is not great in every part of the country. The reason is that some places the cost of electricity is not very high and it doesnt get hot enough to require $300/mo. for AC in the hotter months. In Texas for instances, I was looking at Austin and it was over 100 degress, 100 days per year. Solar in those areas is a no brainer. A good example is Chicago, where its cool in the spring, summer and fall and electricity is cheap. Solar is not so great here until you add an EV or two. 10% more expensive panels wouldnt have changed my decision to purchase solar because solar became a no brainer when I converted $300/month in gas to $150 a month in electricity (my Solar loan is $166/mo.). This made solar more then viable, it made it almost mandatory.

I just wonder why the Donald hates Solar and Washing machines so much. My guess is that these are bargaining chips for Mexico and China and he does not have a real hate of either. He could have selected anything, but he had a solar company in the US filing a lawsuit so it fit.

 

[Paracelsus]

Solar tariffs are all but meaningless to me. Solar is highly subsidized and that more then offsets any tariffs. The real driver for solar, beyond whats happened in the past already, is EVs. Solar is not great in every part of the country. The reason is that some places the cost of electricity is not very high and it doesnt get hot enough to require $300/mo. for AC in the hotter months. In Texas for instances, I was looking at Austin and it was over 100 degress, 100 days per year. Solar in those areas is a no brainer. A good example is Chicago, where its cool in the spring, summer and fall and electricity is cheap. Solar is not so great here until you add an EV or two. 10% more expensive panels wouldnt have changed my decision to purchase solar because solar became a no brainer when I converted $300/month in gas to $150 a month in electricity (my Solar loan is $166/mo.). This made solar more then viable, it made it almost mandatory.

I just wonder why the Donald hates Solar and Washing machines so much. My guess is that these are bargaining chips for Mexico and China and he does not have a real hate of either. He could have selected anything, but he had a solar company in the US filing a lawsuit so it fit.

Sorry @Reciprocity, I could have summed up my point better. I think there is a real possibility that 'Donald' - or at least this administration - does not hate solar as much as the news tells us they do. my point was that I think the tariff might suggest that the time is now for many to position themselves properly to make a substantial amount of money off the pending solar boom. Or perhaps they already have while that sector was held down by cheap imports and thus they are ready for it to grow now. And it will be more than EV's. The grid must transition to a distributed grid to meet its own challenges - which further substantiates the benefits of small scale solar everywhere it can be justified. The tariff just enhances the ability for investors to make more money off US corporations when that happens, and more taxes to be generated as a result.......thus at least the 1% is still on 3rd base.

 

[schorsch]

German vehicle output disrupted for 3rd day by union strikes

Just a standard procedure. About every 2years. Give them a few days and they will produce a compromise and everyone is happy.

 

[ggies07]

German vehicle output disrupted for 3rd day by union strikes

As AI and automation mate, I'm not sure humans will have the pleasure of "walk outs".....

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

The US has historically scrambled to rewrite its history in a similar way to make it appear it was far earlier to the table than it really was on far too many topics (slavery and a woman's right to vote, civil rights, health care, etc.).

Hold on, Paracelsus. The first European country to recognize a woman’s right to vote was Finland in 1907. You, of all people, should know that Idaho granted full voting rights to women in 1896.

 

[hobbes]

Another Update of VIN registrations with NHTSA as per Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) | Twitter, after just 8 days - my analysis in blue (changes in italic):

• Oct 28: 494 new VINs, rounded to 21/day used assuming assigned in the following 24 days until...
• Nov 21: 1201 new VINs, rounded to 41/day used assuming assigned in the following 29 days until...
• Dec 20: 954 new VINs, rounded to 119/day used assuming assigned in the following 8 days until...
• Dec 28: 3568 new VINs, rounded to 127/day used assuming assigned in the following 28 days until...
  (NOTE: might be fewer working days -> higher rate due to possible holiday shutdown)
• Jan 25: 1672 new VINs, rounded to 209/day used assuming assigned in the following 8 days until...
• Feb 2: 1262 new VINs

Even though VINs are likely not used exactly in the specified time windows, looks like ramp is progressing nicely .
We can be more sure if this trend continues during the next few VIN updates, hopefully at quicker pace from now on (although there was another time already where they registered new VINs after just a week and went back to monthly after that).

Put this into a graph - date for each interval shifted to its center, rate per week instead of per day. Linear trend line to compare to 5000/week goal for Q2 (I know ramp is likely not linear, slope getting steeper, so take this as a conservative approximation). @Troy - I´d like a plot with this and your data from the VIN collection spreadsheet by Model 3 owners for comparison of two independent approaches, can you remind me where to find that data? Thx.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Does anyone know the answers to these questions:

1. When will Model 3 reach 5,000/week? 10,000/week?
2. When will FSD separate from EAP? When is C2C demo?

 

[electracity]

Does anyone know the answers to these questions:

1. When will Model 3 reach 5,000/week? 10,000/week?
2. When will FSD separate from EAP? When is C2C demo?

Musk doesn't have these answers.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Musk doesn't have these answers.

Really? He’s predicted timelines for each of those items several times, so he at least acts like he knows the answers. This is what “TOLD YA!” looks like.

Horrible, horrible timing to be asking for tens of billions of dollars from shareholders.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Horrible, horrible timing to be asking for tens of billions of dollars from shareholders.

What? Is Tesla declaring a negative dividend or something? I must have missed the news.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

He’s predicted

That’s very different from knowing. I would have predicted you knew that.

 

[Dennisj00]

Put this into a graph - date for each interval shifted to its center, rate per week instead of per day. Linear trend line to compare to 5000/week goal for Q2 (I know ramp is likely not linear, slope getting steeper, so take this as a conservative approximation). @Troy - I´d like a plot with this and your data from the VIN collection spreadsheet by Model 3 owners for comparison of two independent approaches, can you remind me where to find that data? Thx.

View attachment 277736

Nice graph, but I think you’re beginning to see the exponential trend not linear.

 

[electracity]

This is what “TOLD YA!” looks like.

Is that directed at me? I've been very positive about the model 3. I've been very negative about Tesla ability to ramp relative to bull's position on this subject.

My point that that Musk doesn't know when the big goals will be achieved is supported by his many failed guidances. I still think that if Tesla can exit 2018 at a run rate of 4-5K that they are doing well.

 

[ruralectric]

Tweet from Elon.
Oh Geezus. I don't like this. I Think a better idea would have been the F9 plushy toy.

"Apparently, some customs agencies are saying they won’t allow shipment of anything called a “Flamethrower”. To solve this, we are renaming it “Not a Flamethrower”.

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Mkorpal]

Does anyone know the answers to these questions:

1. When will Model 3 reach 5,000/week? 10,000/week?
2. When will FSD separate from EAP? When is C2C demo?

Hold on, let me throw my magic 8 ball at my dartboard.

Edit. Ok, 8 ball hit inner ban on 10. That band is red. The Hunt for Red October is a movie. So, October 10th. 8 ball read "my sources say no,' so we can rule out October 10.

 

[Paracelsus]

Hold on, Paracelsus. The first European country to recognize a woman’s right to vote was Finland in 1907. You, of all people, should know that Idaho granted full voting rights to women in 1896.

I apologize if I did not sense that your email may have only been meant to be humorous, but wanted to respond for clarification. Idaho may have granted women's suffrage in 1896 (state's rights), but the 19th amendment to the US Constitution making it legal for women to vote in all 50 states was not ratified until August 18th, 1920......well after Finland in 1906, and New Zealand, Australia, Norway, Denmark, Canada, Austria, Germany, Poland, and even Russia. And many states withheld the right for women to vote until its ratification. Women marching for the right to vote in the US movement suffered horrible attacks on the streets and in jail all the way up to date of ratification as the 19th amendment was viewed unfavorably by many at the highest levels......including Woodrow Wilson himself.

Jailed for Freedom:American Women Win the Vote by Doris Stevens is a powerful book on this subject and I would highly recommend it to anyone interested. While the book is of course centered on the women's suffrage movement, it still seems powerfully contemporary regarding the ability for any administration to detract attention from even the most obvious well-founded efforts (such as mass adoption of solar per my previous post)

 

[RobStark]

Tweet from Elon.
Oh Geezus. I don't like this. I Think a better idea would have been the F9 plushy toy.

"Apparently, some customs agencies are saying they won’t allow shipment of anything called a “Flamethrower”. To solve this, we are renaming it “Not a Flamethrower”.

Elon Musk on Twitter

Otto Pilot Elon.

 

[jhm]

Prof Ray Wills on Twitter

Ray Wills has modelled the triumph of BEV over HEB and PHEV. He claims it is already turning.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Is that directed at me? I've been very positive about the model 3. I've been very negative about Tesla ability to ramp relative to bull's position on this subject.

My point that that Musk doesn't know when the big goals will be achieved is supported by his many failed guidances. I still think that if Tesla can exit 2018 at a run rate of 4-5K that they are doing well.

Wasn’t directed at you.