General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[2virgule5]

I'm sure this has been discussed somewhere but I haven't seen much talk about it. With roughly 160k US deliveries at the end of 2017, if Tesla stays under 40k US deliveries in Q1 (very likely IMO) then the US tax credit phase-out period will be pushed back a month as well. Using something like 20k, 40k, 60k as the Model 3 production numbers the next 3 quarters that would be 60k buyers receiving $3750 more than they otherwise would have. Some number of buyers in Q1-2019 would get $1750 more than otherwise, and another batch in Q3-2019 would see the same benefit.

It also means that the full credit should be available to a good portion of the early reservation holders who are waiting for the $35k version. Those buyers are likely more price sensitive, so I expect this to have a small but positive impact of the reservation holder conversion rate.

It's been discussed and updated this week, with estimates to get to 200k US deliveries ranging from first week of April to mid-May. It does not really matter precisely at this point: Q2 is most likely the quarter that would see this milestone. Meaning all Q2 and Q3 deliveries will get full $7500, then half of that for Q4 and Q1 2019, and the 1/4 in Q2 and Q3 2019.

 

[Paracelsus]

Estimate for AWD for me has not changed (1st day online reservation non-owner in CA), still Sep-Nov 2018. Putting that next to your Spring 2018 estimate for AWD, I wonder if that means that there is a long line for AWD.

That is a very helpful data point. It should suggest:

• very high demand for the most profitable version of the Model 3 (bear thesis was highest demand for the $35,000 model at a loss)
• very high demand from current/previous Tesla owners = high customer satisfaction & brand loyalty
• a shorter route to profitability

 

[Curt Renz]

Yes, I also wonder if the push-out of 5k/wk from Q1 to Q2 has to do with Tesla re-prioritizing SR and AWD introduction, trying to pull those in, after seeing the customer preference on the invitations they sent out.

Estimate for AWD for me has not changed (1st day online reservation non-owner in CA), still Sep-Nov 2018. Putting that next to your Spring 2018 estimate for AWD, I wonder if that means that there is a long line for AWD.

That is a very helpful data point. It should suggest:

• very high demand for the most profitable version of the Model 3 (bear thesis was highest demand for the $35,000 model at a loss)
• very high demand from current/previous Tesla owners = high customer satisfaction & brand loyalty
• a shorter route to profitability

I'm near Chicago, Illinois, and was in the reservation queue for the Model 3 at the Highland Park, Illinois store during the first possible morning of 2016 MAR 31.

I am not a Tesla employee, and do not own a Model S or X. I am a shareholder, but I don't believe that matters.

I'm requesting an All-Wheel-Drive Model 3. Estimated delivery is shown as Aug-Oct 2018.

 

[2virgule5]

I'm near Chicago, Illinois, and was in the reservation queue for the Model 3 at the Highland Park, Illinois store during the first possible morning of 2016 MAR 31.

I am not a Tesla employee, and do not own a Model S or X. I am a shareholder, but I don't believe that matters.

I'm requesting an All-Wheel-Drive Model 3. Estimated delivery is shown as Aug-Oct 2018.

Owner. Ordered online 4/1. My delivery windows never changed since available - first M3 order Nov-Jan (so this one will be late) - second M3 order will be AWD (Aug-Oct). I think many of previous owners in CA have a "Spring" delivery window, while owners in the rest of the country have at least July/August and onward.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

I'm near Chicago, Illinois, and was in the reservation queue for the Model 3 at the Highland Park, Illinois store during the first possible morning of 2016 MAR 31.

I am not a Tesla employee, and do not own a Model S or X. I am a shareholder, but I don't believe that matters.

I'm requesting an All-Wheel-Drive Model 3. Estimated delivery is shown as Aug-Oct 2018.

Ditto except I ordered online in the first few minutes.

My AWD is estimated for Oct-Dec 2018 window.

 

[Paracelsus]

Ditto except I ordered online in the first few minutes.

My AWD is estimated for Oct-Dec 2018 window.

Just to clarify, our anticipated delivery date is Aug-Oct 2018 (we unfortunately hesitated longer than we should on our reservation). What I believe has changed is that the clarification of production dates for the $35,000 and AWD versions (previously pointed out by others on TMC)...to include the potential for the AWD version to start around the same time as the $35,000 version this spring (the later being the real revenue driver). They will still have to clear the decks of all employee deliveries of these vehicles before delivering to the rest of us - an effort which appears could begin happening by spring for both versions now. This effort should result in booking revenue from employee deliveries of both theh $35,000 and the AWD versions within Q2. And they will likely have delivered all of the employee AWD vehicles at least before August as we hit the 'Reserve' button later than we would have liked.

My thought on the longer waiting list for the AWD is that TM appears to be moving that production effort forward - an effort which will also move increased revenue forward. I would be very interested in knowing the % of RWD, AWD, and $35,000 vehicles purchased by employees at TM, TE, and SpaceX. That could be an interesting question for the Q4 Q&A session.

 

[Reciprocity]

We keep thinking that more people want $35k model or duel motor/performance. My guess is that just as many people dont want black interior. I am actually shocked that I like the white interior, im not a white interior guy. But for some reason I just have to have a stormtrooper white on white with black wheels and carbon fiber accents. I also want the duel motor, but the interior options are almost as important.

 

[kbM3]

I would sincerely doubt that. More than likely grid connected to sell into the grid when surplus, maintain the battery to supply the majority of the power, and grid for when battery packs are low. Also allows for low cost off-peak charging of the packs.

Except possibly very sunny areas in other countries where grid connection would be prohibitively expensive?

Elon will figure out how to mass produce cars. And batteries. That’s a heck of a lot easier than inventing an ev that performs as well as my S. No worries. Now when I have to drive an ice I hate it. In my beemer X5 it really bugs me to be putting on the brakes all the time. And the slow acceleration. And the noise. And the ......

It takes a hundred to a thousand times more resources, and far more difficulty, to build the machine that builds the machine, compared to creating an individual product, said Musk.

 

[sub]

Owner. Ordered online 4/1. My delivery windows never changed since available - first M3 order Nov-Jan (so this one will be late) - second M3 order will be AWD (Aug-Oct). I think many of previous owners in CA have a "Spring" delivery window, while owners in the rest of the country have at least July/August and onward.

I was not aware that non line standing owners were moving ahead of non owner linestanders. I'm not sure I like that but I can see an argument being made both ways. I was a non owner line stander in NorCal and my first date is Jan-Mar after the initial 1 month push back. My AWD is currently Sep-Nov 18.

Waiting for first delivery was already an issue with the need for a 3rd car (daughter gets license next week) in addition to my wife liking model S/X better after seeing model 3 in person. I disagreed with her, I love the model 3, but my bad back loves getting in and out of our new model X so we are both happy. I'm not that old but my back sure is from a life of playing sports and bad parents. Cancelled one model 3 res but keeping the 2nd until the line is similar to S/X just in case we want both.

As for the delivery numbers/schedule push back. Seems that anyone that has been here a minute would have this all figured out by now. I'm long TSLA a significant percentage of our networth and I sleep well at night. Anything between now and 2020+ regarding small delays etc is just noise. Expect the worst, hope for the best and enjoy life. I'm with @Krugerrand

 

[dirtyofries]

Alex Roy published his review.

Tesla Model 3: The First Serious Review

TL;DR - loves the car except for AP interface

 

[mickificki]

Alex Roy published his review.

Tesla Model 3: The First Serious Review

TL;DR - loves the car except for AP interface

Fantastic review. seemed pretty objective.

 

[-=buzz=-]

Just to clarify, our anticipated delivery date is Aug-Oct 2018 (we unfortunately hesitated longer than we should on our reservation). What I believe has changed is that the clarification of production dates for the $35,000 and AWD versions (previously pointed out by others on TMC)...to include the potential for the AWD version to start around the same time as the $35,000 version this spring (the later being the real revenue driver). They will still have to clear the decks of all employee deliveries of these vehicles before delivering to the rest of us - an effort which appears could begin happening by spring for both versions now. This effort should result in booking revenue from employee deliveries of both theh $35,000 and the AWD versions within Q2. And they will likely have delivered all of the employee AWD vehicles at least before August as we hit the 'Reserve' button later than we would have liked.

My thought on the longer waiting list for the AWD is that TM appears to be moving that production effort forward - an effort which will also move increased revenue forward. I would be very interested in knowing the % of RWD, AWD, and $35,000 vehicles purchased by employees at TM, TE, and SpaceX. That could be an interesting question for the Q4 Q&A session.

Another explanation for the accelerated AWD introduction is, that the motor production ramp went according to the original plan, which together with the delayed general ramp allows for the much sooner AWD availability.

 

[sub]

Alex Roy published his review.

Tesla Model 3: The First Serious Review

TL;DR - loves the car except for AP interface

Good review. I'm new to AP and had planned to buy our X without it and add later but ended up with it via an inventory car.
I'm very happy I did and can't imagine not having it now even though my wife won't allow its use when she is in the car. I've only got a few hours now of use so far but I can't disagree with any of his points regarding the AP on the model 3. All fixable via software updates.

 

[ChrisA]

Good review. I'm new to AP and had planned to buy our X without it and add later but ended up with it via an inventory car.
I'm very happy I did and can't imagine not having it now even though my wife won't allow its use when she is in the car. I've only got a few hours now of use so far but I can't disagree with any of his points regarding the AP on the model 3. All fixable via software updates.

THIS QUOTE: "I think it's a bargain even at $55,000, because it's far more than a car. It's a work of art, a concept car come to life, more revelatory than the Model S, and historically even more important."

That's a pretty terrific endorsement. Interesting he found the AP interface so bad, but that can be fixed.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I'm near Chicago, Illinois, and was in the reservation queue for the Model 3 at the Highland Park, Illinois store during the first possible morning of 2016 MAR 31.

I am not a Tesla employee, and do not own a Model S or X. I am a shareholder, but I don't believe that matters.

I'm requesting an All-Wheel-Drive Model 3. Estimated delivery is shown as Aug-Oct 2018.

I'm glad line-waiters in Chicago like you got prioritized over online order in CA like me. I think it's a nice gesture to reward the effort.

 

[immunogold]

Galileo Russell, Tesla bull on SA, was interviewed this morning and did a good job handling the interviewers’ questions about Tesla ‘missing guidance’, ‘burning cash’, being vulnerable to competition, etc

1. MS/MX did meet guidance in Q4, up 35%.
2. Turns the narrative from an IR issue on M3 ramp to a question of what Tesla HAS accomplished (e.g. 24% of plug-in EV market in US in 2017, best-selling luxury EV, etc).
3. Analog moats (e.g. Supercharger Network, over 400 direct-to-customer stores worldwide, GF1, etc)
4. GR uses Revenue per Share as a proxy for efficient use of prior capital raises ($1/share in 2010 to what he estimates will be $66/share in 2017). “Tesla has done a phenomenal job of spending money efficiently.”

 

[RobStark]

We keep thinking that more people want $35k model or duel motor/performance. But for some reason I just have to have a stormtrooper white on white with black wheels and carbon fiber accents. I also want the duel motor

 

[Reciprocity]

Alex Roy published his review.

Tesla Model 3: The First Serious Review

TL;DR - loves the car except for AP interface

Great review, thanks for sharing. He provides a great option to fix the interface and clearly understands the value of OTA updates. This is a great review for non-Tesla heads like us because he breaks it down to the basics so well. No fluff. I was expecting a lot of snarky remarks, but he seems to get that a cannonball run style cross country run in the dead of the coldest winter in a while, in a car where winter is not where it shines was going to be unconformable, but he didn't focus on that. He instead focused on things that potential customers would be interested in and that was very fair of him.

 

[Reciprocity]

NOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooo............ You got me again!

 

[Mike Smith]

Alex Roy published his review.

Tesla Model 3: The First Serious Review

TL;DR - loves the car except for AP interface

Seemed like a fair review, although I don't think he knows what the word 'infamous' means, since he used it to describe both the key card and the inflatable mattress for no apparent reason.