General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Menifeer]

First Model 3 motor failure reported, Tesla engineers on their way to investigate

I did not realize this about the rear Model 3 doors.

Why isn't there an emergency mechanical release on the rear doors? Only on the front. There will be situations where rear passengers need to quickly exit the vehicle.

Yes, not a good situation.

It's the sort of thing that could result in a major recall...

 

[richman0841]

I'm 100 % certain the FW/SW won't improve OTA.

I read somewhere that Elon had a campaign (at SpaceX, I think) against overdoing abbreviations, even cute acronyms, unless approved by him. People were using abbreviations that took longer to say than the actual words, for one thing; but worse, a lot of people had to ask what the abbreviations meant! So: FW? SW? (okay, firmware and software, figured it out, but saying FW or SW isn't any quicker than saying firmware and software). What's OTA? Over the air? Open to all? Obligatory Thug Attack? Offer to Adopt? On-time application? One-time achievement?

 

[BriansTesla]

None of the big-Semi competition offer the chargers and batteries that are needed (or has some experience installing / building them). Big problem for them.

I am very curious if anyone has an idea what stationary battery capacity might be needed for a single mega-charger. I can see that they would be required for most if not all installations.

 

[lunitiks]

What's OTA? Over the air? Open to all? Obligatory Thug Attack? Offer to Adopt? On-time application? One-time achievement?

No that’s no abbreviation. OTA is OTA. Like «soon», its a word in itself

 

[Troy]

Here is another example - new Volvo plant in South Carolina will produce 100,000 cars/year (S60) and employ 2,000 people. This is again in line with the Fremont Metrics.
South Carolina Factory | Volvo Car USA

That means 50 cars per year per employee. Here are Tesla's numbers:

6,200 employees at the Fremont factory in October 2016. Source
99,284 yearly production rate based on 24,821 cars in Q3 2016
99,284/6,200= 16 cars per year per employee. Seems close to the 14 mentioned in the other article.

The mercury news article suggests 9,300 employees in 2017 at the Fremont factory. That means 104K/9.3K= 11 cars per year per employee in 2017.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Yes, not a good situation.

It's the sort of thing that could result in a major recall...

Don't count on it.

The Honda Element, which sold from Model Years 2003 through 2011, has clamshell style doors. The doors for the rear bench cannot be opened at all, unless the front door is open.

From owner's manual: http://techinfo.honda.com/rjanisis/pubs/OM/CV0808/CV0808OM.pdf, page 81:

To open the rear door, pull the rear To lock or unlock the hatch. door handle located in the rear door edge. The rear door can be opened only when the front door is open.
​

Number of recalls for this? Zero.

 

[Intl Professor]

Are any of these at that location engineers and software types? Are we clear that these figures only mean production line employees involved in daily production? I would think Tesla is comparatively heavy with others. Pardon my naiveté, but we ignorant types want to know.

 

[vgrinshpun]

That means 50 cars per year per employee. Here are Tesla's numbers:

6,200 employees at the Fremont factory in October 2016. Source
99,284 yearly production rate based on 24,821 cars in Q3 2016
99,284/6,200= 16 cars per year per employee. Seems close to the 14 mentioned in the other article.

The mercury news article suggests 9,300 employees in 2017 at the Fremont factory. That means 104K/9.3K= 11 cars per year per employee in 2017.

My first point was that a benchmark of 74 cars per employee from your original post is not a proper one. As I shown BMW South Carolina plant has a ratio of 45 cars/employee. This, rather than 74 cars/employee is a proper benchmark.

Tesla Fremont plant is stuffed up for the Model 3 ramp-up, which, when completed, will yield approximately the same cars/employee metrics as BMW plant.

Even then Tesla's metrics beat BMW's as BMW's South Carolina is an assembly plant. One need to add employees at the BMW engine production plant to arrive at the numbers comparable to Tesla's.

 

[Intl Professor]

That means 50 cars per year per employee. Here are Tesla's numbers:

6,200 employees at the Fremont factory in October 2016. Source
99,284 yearly production rate based on 24,821 cars in Q3 2016
99,284/6,200= 16 cars per year per employee. Seems close to the 14 mentioned in the other article.

The mercury news article suggests 9,300 employees in 2017 at the Fremont factory. That means 104K/9.3K= 11 cars per year per employee in 2017.

Trying to answer my previous post, I suspect we cannot get information on the actual breakdown of employees at the Fremont plant, unless some publication is required for SEC reporting issues. It might be proprietary information.

 

[Reciprocity]

That means 50 cars per year per employee. Here are Tesla's numbers:

6,200 employees at the Fremont factory in October 2016. Source
99,284 yearly production rate based on 24,821 cars in Q3 2016
99,284/6,200= 16 cars per year per employee. Seems close to the 14 mentioned in the other article.

The mercury news article suggests 9,300 employees in 2017 at the Fremont factory. That means 104K/9.3K= 11 cars per year per employee in 2017.

Up until recently, Only $100,000 Luxury vehicles where made at Fremont. It would be a better comparison to other manufacturers that make only $100,000 Luxury vehicles in a single location. I agree that the BMW factory in SC, mentioned a few posts back, is a better proxy when you factor in the model 3. To me, this is just another area where Tesla can improve through automation and become more profitable. Its one thing to already be hyper efficient and be losing money, its a whole different thing when you buy a company like Ghromann to help automate many of the production processes that are currently more manual. This is even more critical for Tesla because of the vertical integration. The vertical integration that is not automated, the more people you need. The model S/X may not have been high enough volume to justify Automation of every sub assembly. With the model 3, and potentially a refresh of the S/X to share more parts, Tesla could be moving to automate a lot more parts of the process. For example, if they use the same HVAC system in the S/X as they use in the Model 3. Maybe some parts of the seats can be shared.

The volume of the model 3 will have benefits for the S/X but Tesla might have to do some redesigning of the platform to allow for more automation and maybe they have already done some of that with the all glass roofs in the model S being more of a standard. Robots need space to access the interior, but if you have enough volume you can build custom machines that are specific to the job and not just a programmable Kuka robot arm with tooling. The key is having the volume to justify building a custom machine. This is what they did for the pack assembly.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Bobfitz1 said: ↑
If South Australia can partner with Tesla Energy on this scale, why can't the U.S. government do the same type of pilot project in Puerto Rico as part of restoring electric service there? Is any one up on what is planned for PR? Is the opportunity to revamp and decentralize Puerto Rico's grid slipping away?

You are assuming the current US government regards Puerto Rico as part of the US... I think that Tesla did some donations of solar systems and powerpacks in Puerto Rico, but there's not much info about this.

Good catch @aubreymcfato. It must have been all the U.S. citizens living there that led me to erroneously assume the U.S. government regards Puerto Rico as part of U.S.

 

[sub]

Don't count on it.

The Honda Element, which sold from Model Years 2003 through 2011, has clamshell style doors. The doors for the rear bench cannot be opened at all, unless the front door is open.

From owner's manual: http://techinfo.honda.com/rjanisis/pubs/OM/CV0808/CV0808OM.pdf, page 81:

To open the rear door, pull the rear To lock or unlock the hatch. door handle located in the rear door edge. The rear door can be opened only when the front door is open.
​

Number of recalls for this? Zero.

Good point, the i3 has similar doors and the back can not be opened until the front is open.

Regarding the cars sold/employee, wouldn't a better metric be total sales in $/employee?

 

[Waiting4M3]

Bobfitz1 said: ↑
If South Australia can partner with Tesla Energy on this scale, why can't the U.S. government do the same type of pilot project in Puerto Rico as part of restoring electric service there? Is any one up on what is planned for PR? Is the opportunity to revamp and decentralize Puerto Rico's grid slipping away?



Good catch @aubreymcfato. It must have been all the U.S. citizens living there that led me to erroneously assume the U.S. government regards Puerto Rico as part of U.S.

Federal voting rights in Puerto Rico - Wikipedia

Are they really citizens if they don't have a vote

 

[30seconds]

I don't see how valuable it is to compare Fremont to other auto plants given that Tesla makes many of their parts & assemblies in house compared to other automakers

 

[30seconds]

This is interesting. Maybe means prices for a mid-sized installation are a net positive for all sorts of energy intensive businesses.

Squaw Valley Gets Tesla Batteries to Stabilize Tahoe Power Grid

 

[Tenable]

I don't see how valuable it is to compare Fremont to other auto plants given that Tesla makes many of their parts & assemblies in house compared to other automakers

Agreed, Tesla also likely has a larger % headcount under one roof for software dev, R&D, etc.

 

[trayloader]

Yes, not a good situation.

It's the sort of thing that could result in a major recall...

It´s the exact same on the Model S rear doors, just in case nobody is aware of.
The MS has only electric latches in the second row. Those who istall sound systems all saw that. No mechanical cable.
;(

 

[gene]

It´s the exact same on the Model S rear doors, just in case nobody is aware of.
The MS has only electric latches in the second row. Those who istall sound systems all saw that. No mechanical cable.
;(

From the Model S manual:
To open the rear doors, fold back the edge of the carpet below the rear seats to expose the mechanical release cable

 

[ValueAnalyst]

A guy I know is a retired auto consultant who has worked for VAG, Volvo etc at a high level. He mentioned that Volkswage, Porsche et al calculate margin differently from Tesla. Now I don't recall details, but is point was that one can't really compare the numbers straight off. Sorry I can't be more specific but HTH.

Sounds like he’s read one too many seeking alpha bear articles.

 

[RobStark]