General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[elasalle]

VIN 7755 is showing up in
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...wTF/pubchart?oid=496824047&format=interactive

but not in

Tesla Model 3 VINs

7755 is the highest VIN I am aware of now. Given that most of peeps provide just 1st 2 digits of VIN, looks like there are a lot more VINS than what is reported on either of these.

 

[Ulmo]

Abigail

 

[Waiting4M3]

Maybe MS never said explicitly to short Tesla, but this is at the end of every hate filled article:



If you needed anymore evidence, this is his Twitter profile in its entirety (and my cat has more twitter followers then this guy):



Now maybe the real Montana has many different twitter profiles, one for each of his/her interests, but this appears to be his day job.

This is his/her seeking alpha profile:


I can tell you that there isnt a billion dollars in Montana. Its a beautiful place but that is because no one lives there. Given the visceral hate in MS's articles, its probably clear why he wants to remain anonymous. I cant imagine his clients would want to read his work and I wonder how much of their money he has lost.

As a self-claimed contrarian, he sure missed the signal that when Tesla faithfuls start to lose faith, it might be a bottom.

 

[MP3Mike]

7755 is the highest VIN I am aware of now. Given that most of peeps provide just 1st 2 digits of VIN, looks like there are a lot more VINS than what is reported on either of these.

Yep, someone just reported that they got 82xx. I suspect that a lot of people getting Model 3s now aren't posting their VINs all over the place.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Yep, someone just reported that they got 82xx. I suspect that a lot of people getting Model 3s now aren't posting their VINs all over the place.

Tesla is still manufacturing at 1,000/w or so... a month after Elon said we would “definitely” be in the “few thousands” in November:

————

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.

These are all short-term issues.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

I mean, (17:12) by the end of the year, it will be in the thousands. It's well advanced. Yeah. Yeah.

James J. Albertine - Consumer Edge Research LLC

I'm sorry, well into the thousands per...

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yeah. In the thousands by the end of the year. But where exactly, it's hard to say. And literally, if you move the calendar by, like, two or three weeks, you would see giant changes. So the quarter-to-date will fall somewhat sort of arbitrarily in that exponential curve. So even in a matter of a few weeks which would show a very different number (17:53) people tend to extrapolate on a linear basis instead of an exponential. In fact, most people wouldn't know what exponential is.

———

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Is that why – I guess, yeah off of a low number but are you getting to a few thousand per week already by the end of this year or did you mean to say that you'll have a few thousand produced in total by the year-end?

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Oh, no, no. Again, it's really tricky because of that being exponential. If you were to move the calendar date by plus or minus a few weeks, you'd see gigantic differences in weekly output. But what I meant is something like a few thousand units per week at the end of Q4.

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Okay.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

But there's (47:56), if you said okay, what about a few weeks after Q4? I'd say, yeah, definitely. So, it's just going to be very, very – rising very, very sharply at that time.

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.

To be clear, Elon is not going to provide guidance. He's just giving – you are giving...

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

This is my guess.

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.

Exactly.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

It will be (48:16) vertical climb here, it's like – from one moment to the next (48:22).

 

[SteveG3]

Tesla is still manufacturing at 1,000/w or so... a month after Elon said we would be in the thousands:

————

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.

These are all short-term issues.

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

I mean, (17:12) by the end of the year, it will be in the thousands. It's well advanced. Yeah. Yeah.

James J. Albertine - Consumer Edge Research LLC

I'm sorry, well into the thousands per...

Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.

Yeah. In the thousands by the end of the year. But where exactly, it's hard to say. And literally, if you move the calendar by, like, two or three weeks, you would see giant changes. So the quarter-to-date will fall somewhat sort of arbitrarily in that exponential curve. So even in a matter of a few weeks which would show a very different number (17:53) people tend to extrapolate on a linear basis instead of an exponential. In fact, most people wouldn't know what exponential is.

These comments are from the Q3 earnings call in early November, before the revised plan announced at the beginning of January. Is there some benefit in imagining this is new information, and imagining new frustration?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

These comments are from the Q3 earnings call in early November, before the revised plan announced in at the beginning of January.

Yes, feels like years ago... his guess changed by three months in less than two months, even though “definitely” was used to describe a few weeks after.

 

[electric_drive]

VIN 82XX is signed to TMC member Cnasty
Highest production VIN in the wild Things are moving now

 

[SteveG3]

Yes, feels like years ago... his guess changed by three months in less than two months, even though “definitely” was used to describe a few weeks after.

indeed, the use of absolutes is a sign that someone is reacting more so than responding with their reason at full disposal as a tool. I never heard Musk use absolutes like "certain" until about a year ago. I've heard it twice so far, and it spooked me both times (pretty sure I commented about is here on TMC). Fortunately, the outstanding, but, not 'perfect' performance of Tesla and Musk over the past year have reassured me that he has not lost his mind.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

VIN 82XX is signed to TMC member Cnasty
Highest production VIN in the wild Things are moving now

Things are moving at the same speed as they have been for the last several weeks. We need the Grohmann lines disassembled, shipped, reassembled, and people trained for another step-change in production, so “March maybe; April definitely,” so June, if all goes well, but only burst-rate, so September EMT, and December EST? No word on if all that happens in 2018 or 2019, and if you dare assume it can happen before 2020, you will forever be deemed optimistic. Has anyone seen the third 8-K that fails to explain the second 8-K? I’m gonna burn it with a flamethrower.

 

[mickificki]

I’m a pout pout fish with a pout pout face, and I spread the dreary wearies all over the place.

 

[SteveG3]

They are moving at the same speed as they have been for the last several weeks. We need the Grohmann lines disassembled, shipped, reassembled, and people trained for another step-change in production, so “March maybe; April definitely,” so June?

On the plus side, and I say this genuinely, not for snark, it looks increasingly possible that they are going to use Canada deliveries to avert hitting 200K U.S. deliveries until after Q2. I thought this was somewhat possible if they produce 57K Model 3s in the first 6 months of the year (15K Q1, 42K Q2), but, if this is more like 40K vehicles, this will not be that difficult to do.

The net effect of not hitting 200K U.S. deliveries until Q3 would be a very large increase in the amount of people qualifying for the full tax credit and the phase out levels. This is all but certain to increase the take rate of various options, and so, increase the ASP for several quarters to come.

For clarity, I'm not saying this is what will happen, but, it now seems possible (whether at 40K or 57K Model 3 production for the first half of 2018) where a week or two ago I'd of said it was all but impossible.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

On the plus side, and I say this genuinely, not for snark, it looks increasingly possible that they are going to use Canada deliveries to avert hitting 200K U.S. deliveries until after Q2. I thought this was somewhat possible if they produce 57K Model 3s in the first 6 months of the year (15K Q1, 42K Q2), but, if this is more like 40K vehicles, this will not be that difficult to do.

The net effect of not hitting 200K U.S. deliveries until Q3 would be a very large increase in the amount of people qualifying for the full tax credit and the phase out levels. This is all but certain to increase the take rate of various options, and so, increase the ASP for several quarters to come.

For clarity, I'm not saying this is what will happen, but, it now seems possible (whether at 40K or 57K Model 3 production for the first half of 2018) where a week or two ago I'd of said it was all but impossible.

They would also have to all but stop S/X shipments to US until Q3. Not sure if this is a possible scenario.

 

[Dennisj00]

But it will move my original Feb. delivery to July or later- now scheduled for Mar-May.

Guess we’all just have to drive the S.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I’m a pout pout fish with a pout pout face, and I spread the dreary wearies all over the place.

Omg that looks just like me.

 

[SteveG3]

They would also have to all but stop S/X shipments to US until Q3. Not sure if this is a possible scenario.

I wrote a pretty detailed description of how I could see this working in post 2503 in this thread... it did not require anything drastic (fwiw, did not require stopping S/X to U.S. for a few months from now). that post I think covers all the basics, but, some other posts that day might have some details 2503 does not.

 

[SteveG3]

But it will move my original Feb. delivery to July or later- now scheduled for Mar-May.

if you're responding to what I'm suggesting is possible, than, nope, "don't panic" as "Starman" says, you probably would not get moved to July : )

 

[dmckinstry]

As a self-claimed contrarian, he sure missed the signal that when Tesla faithfuls start to lose faith, it might be a bottom.

I don't think the faithful have really lost faith. We're just discouraged by the current state of affairs.
Does that mean we still haven't reached the bottom?

 

[Off Shore]

Just an reminder: For some of us (many of us?) y'all are talking to ghosts.

 

[22522]

One problem I have with Elon is that he invests in the generally correct long term direction.

So you have to invest.

The other problem is that he feels compelled/coerced to make money now at the expense of goodwill.

I want the employees and first day line waiters to get the full tax credit on a $35,000 car. This is consistent with the purpose of the credit to develop scale to drive costs down. He is being urged to trade scale later for money now.

There is a good chance of a lull in demand as Tesla works to provide the $27,500 transaction price it is frittering away as we speak.

I don't see how they are going to coast through the lull. The product mix is too narrow and product ramps are too slow.

An about face on the fritter decision while goodwill lives would give me more confidence in the ability to ride through the lull.


The $50,000 cars we are selling today could carry Tesla through the lull.