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When I reserved a Model 3 two years ago, I lived thirty miles closer to a Tesla store and service center than I do now. Although in both cases I've resided in what is officially Chicagoland. A few days ago when I received my invitation to configure, it included my old address even though the Tesla website has long known my new address. I edited the address on the invitation page, yet I apparently still can configure at any time. I've chosen to wait until more configuration options are available.
Some other deals here Inventory car with good discount vs custom order with new MCU Seems like there is some movement on the X inventory
I don't any pleasure in American companies folding tent and people losing their jobs, but my bet against Tesla has nothing to do with ICE vs. electric (I still have yet to see hard data showing that pulling lithium out of ground + the total carbon expense associated into making it into a battery vs. the total carbon footprint associated with refining oil into gasoline). I simply started looking at the company's 10K and other production data. And the more I looked at it, the more it didn't make any damn sense.
Musk's lies and showmanship only increased as the company continues to deteriorate financially. And that's what caught a lot of professional investors attention - when they looked, they realized this guy is full of it.
Tesla's thesis is, as I understand - "if we keep increasing revenue at this pace, we'll be one of the worlds biggest companies!"
Except you can't run a business (for very long) if it costs you $1.50 to make a $1.00
Except Tesla did the opposite of what they should have done. They should have -
1) Made a more expensive SUV with traditional SUV characteristics (Escalade size / body on frame) and charged $160k for it. Keep building a war chest of money that would allowed them to eventually build a $45,000 Model 3. A Model 3 at $35,000 is a fantasy, as thousands will soon discover.
2) Tesla should have never gone to the bond market for debt. The bond is trading below par. Tesla debt pays as much as a bonds from Colombia. That's not a credit rating class you want to be associated with.
Tesla is toast at this point. Tesla's assets are worth something, I expect Amazon or someone else to pick it up for ten or fifteen cents on the dollar.
Musk's lies and showmanship only increased as the company continues to deteriorate financially. And that's what caught a lot of professional investors attention - when they looked, they realized this guy is full of it.
Tesla's thesis is, as I understand - "if we keep increasing revenue at this pace, we'll be one of the worlds biggest companies!"
Except you can't run a business (for very long) if it costs you $1.50 to make a $1.00
Except Tesla did the opposite of what they should have done. They should have -
1) Made a more expensive SUV with traditional SUV characteristics (Escalade size / body on frame) and charged $160k for it. Keep building a war chest of money that would allowed them to eventually build a $45,000 Model 3. A Model 3 at $35,000 is a fantasy, as thousands will soon discover.
2) Tesla should have never gone to the bond market for debt. The bond is trading below par. Tesla debt pays as much as a bonds from Colombia. That's not a credit rating class you want to be associated with.
Tesla is toast at this point. Tesla's assets are worth something, I expect Amazon or someone else to pick it up for ten or fifteen cents on the dollar.
Well they are not really "brand new" when they have ~1,200 miles on them. So they were loaners/demo cars, etc. And it likely has the old MCU. Tesla discounts those kind of cars all the time so they can get cars with current build options in to show people. (And the discount was $16.2k, not $20k.)
Buddyroe
Active Member
From one of the posts there. And I doubt it even had 50 miles on it, that's what Tesla records for all new cars.
"I take delivery of my new 100D tomorrow morning.
It was an inventory vehicle with only 50 miles on it. "
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Most of your points have been argued to death, a lot of people here think you're wrong, some will agree with you, no one will change their mind anyway.
Just want to say when you mention "professional investors", this is what came to my mind:
I personally don't care for any "professional investors" who make a living using other people's money.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Doesn't these kind of anecdotes get reported every quarter? I don't see what the big deal is.
And that person didn't say that they got a $20k discount, in fact they didn't mention a discount at all. Only that "I couldn’t turn down the no wait and the .99% financing."
Buddyroe
Active Member
Yes, they do. But I was hoping they'd be able to stop that tactic once the M3 arrived and was selling well. If they were producing the M3 at 2500 to 3000 per week right now and all was well with the M3, these 100 to 200 discounted cars would not be needed in the numbers and the slightly lower sales of the S and X would mean basically nothing. But, Tesla is still in a situation where they are reaching for the stars the last couple of weeks of the quarter/year. If Tesla is truly production constrained, I hate seeing the lost opportunity of making money on these last 100 to 200 cars of every quarter that they give away.
Don't get me wrong - it's what every other car manufacturer does. I just don't want Tesla to be "every other car manufacturer."
Buddyroe
Active Member
True. I've always wished that Tesla would start using an annotation like 2017.12 (year.month). My car was started on Dec 27th of 2014, but the manufacturer date in the window sticker says 02-2015, and the original owner bought it in March. Sure, I bought it as a 2014 and got a much better deal than any 2015 out there at the time. But, I can't see why the same car built (started) a week later would be worth any more. But, it is.
All my holdings are put options, with my own money.
What I was implying - when Elon started talking about crazy stuff (solar shingles / building cars at a certain price point when the industry said it's impossible to make a profit on a car (in the next five years) with that technology at that price point) and he's the CEO of a publicly traded company, he started attracting the wrong sort of attention. The sort of attention where the other side of the trade has amassed a financial position where TSLA is worth more dead than it is alive.
What I was implying - when Elon started talking about crazy stuff (solar shingles / building cars at a certain price point when the industry said it's impossible to make a profit on a car (in the next five years) with that technology at that price point) and he's the CEO of a publicly traded company, he started attracting the wrong sort of attention. The sort of attention where the other side of the trade has amassed a financial position where TSLA is worth more dead than it is alive.
With all due respect, you were making very, very, similar comments during the Model X ramp, and that turned out fine in the long run. Model 3 will be the same...
Tesla has committed to only using the best and most up to date cars in it's loaner fleet, this will require high turn over due to them improving the models very frequently.
There is this underlying thing too:
EPA expected to declare Obama car efficiency rules too strict
Seems some states will fight back.(CA etc.)
TSLA has no choice but to continue with batteries, but if this takes into affect, it might actually slow down others and have them continue on ICE path for longer ...
EPA expected to declare Obama car efficiency rules too strict
Seems some states will fight back.(CA etc.)
TSLA has no choice but to continue with batteries, but if this takes into affect, it might actually slow down others and have them continue on ICE path for longer ...
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Like I said before, Trump's EPA is going to give traditional automakers a sedative in their effort to transition to EV, when what they actually need is some adrenaline.
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