General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[UnknownSoldier]

Tesla, soccer team owner interested in Oakland Coliseum land

Is this real or April fools?

I don't see why it wouldn't be real. Tesla would probably want to build a factory, warehouse, or other facility there.

Of course the Oakland Coliseum isn't going anywhere as long as the A's still play there. The team would have to get a new stadium built in Oakland or follow the Raiders to Las Vegas or something.

There is little doubt that the Coliseum will be demolished at some point. It's built right on a fault line and it is literally rotting and falling apart. This is why the Raiders left. But until the A's have somewhere to go, all of this is just speculation.

 

[1101011]

Tesla Model 3 gets more useful Autopilot controls with steering wheel scrolls/buttons on latest update

This update is not specified in the article.

So please give me a lesson in the update process- is this an update sent to all models, one aspect of which is dedicated to the M3's thumbwheels? Or would this be an update that only concerns M3?

Irrespective, having recently received my long awaited red car, I think it is even smarter than that old blue one in the garage...

 

[defc0n]

I don’t expect the share price to dip anywhere near those prices— in fact, I expect a ferocious rebound— but it seems to me that there’s a very solid floor somewhere between 150-200 regardless of market sentiment.

In the unlikely event 243-245 is broken, I’d wager 205.

 

[AZRI11]

There are only 1-2 million shares available to short. Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

 

[RobStark]

Tesla, soccer team owner interested in Oakland Coliseum land

Is this real or April fools?

That looks like a Major League Soccer sized stadium for expansion United Soccer League team.

MLS has absorbed the 3 most successful USL teams. Portland,Vancouver, and Montreal.

And expanded into two previously very successful USL markets; Seattle and Toronto.

That seems nuts to me when you have an MLS team in San Jose.

 

[KLC13]

Tweets like these is what keep me awake at night

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[EinSV]

Tweets like these is what keep me awake at night

Elon Musk on Twitter

April 1 would be a good day for an announcement on the new comedy venture.

 

[AudubonB]

I don't see why it wouldn't be real. ...It's built right on a fault line...

If true, am I the only one who sees a potential problem here?

 

[Waiting4M3]

April 1 would be a good day for an announcement on the new comedy venture.

But Elon will be late and miss April 1st

 

[UnknownSoldier]

If true, am I the only one who sees a potential problem here?

No? But multiple large buildings in California are built right by or on fault lines. If you know what you are doing, you can ensure public safety even up and including to the building splitting in half. As long as people aren't killed, the building being destroyed and unsalvageable afterwards is not that big a deal.

 

[RobStark]

Two of the world's largest economies, Japan & California, are built along fault lines.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Tweets like these is what keep me awake at night

Elon Musk on Twitter

Unrelated to tesla

 

[bdy0627]

As true today as in '16. I certainly was considering a MX in '16. After reading reviews from current owners, decided this was a bad idea. Kept reading and decided to go short on the stock. Patience was rewarded, might even get better next week. Monday will certainly be an interesting day...

You might want to be careful at this point. This stock has fallen dramatically and often reverses just as dramatically. While that may not happen, that is it's pattern. No one can argue otherwise. Sentiment for Tesla shifts rapidly and dramatically. If it does, you may find it difficult to exit with your profits since so many others would be looking to close their short positions. A little squeeze could easily happen. Longs would often be wise to do the same after it runs up hard.

 

[mmd]

A perfect response to the "cash crunch" nonsense purposefully spread by FUDsters and even some bulls who are not financially literate:

Why I have zero concerns about Tesla running out of cash

The poster writes "how spectacularly wrong" the shorts have been, then takes management's projections at face value. How spectacularly wrong have the Tesla projections been? 100k-200k M3 in 2H of 2017? How wrong have the bull side analysts been over the last many years on profit projections? How wrong were you in projecting Tesla's ramp to millions of cars in a short span?
In reality, the shorts have been more right about many things Tesla than Tesla itself.
At this point, anyone who takes management projections at face value are themselves to blame. I have no sympathy for such people.

Tesla may not run out of cash, but its constant need of external capital can keep on diluting the shareholders or put it in a debt hole.
With the recent setbacks, the bond market is essentially closed. That leaves us with equity dilution the only major way.
Tesla's plunging bonds signal investor worries that it will run out of cash

Unless Tesla figures out a way to manage without more spending, which is unlikely IMHO. With high volumes of M3 comes a need for more service centers, super chargers, and so on. If Tesla doesn't keep up with these, then the brand gets tarnished, which will be a bigger loss in the long run.

 

[Reciprocity]

The poster writes "how spectacularly wrong" the shorts have been, then takes management's projections at face value. How spectacularly wrong have the Tesla projections been? 100k-200k M3 in 2H of 2017? How wrong have the bull side analysts been over the last many years on profit projections? How wrong were you in projecting Tesla's ramp to millions of cars in a short span?
In reality, the shorts have been more right about many things Tesla than Tesla itself.
At this point, anyone who takes management projections at face value are themselves to blame. I have no sympathy for such people.

Tesla may not run out of cash, but its constant need of external capital can keep on diluting the shareholders or put it in a debt hole.
With the recent setbacks, the bond market is essentially closed. That leaves us with equity dilution the only major way.
Tesla's plunging bonds signal investor worries that it will run out of cash

Unless Tesla figures out a way to manage without more spending, which is unlikely IMHO. With high volumes of M3 comes a need for more service centers, super chargers, and so on. If Tesla doesn't keep up with these, then the brand gets tarnished, which will be a bigger loss in the long run.

M3 owners pay for supercharging. Should be about 40% margins in there for Tesla. Brand new cars don't need a lot of service. Tesla charges for non warranty service which is typically annually for Tesla's. My service center has not had a single model 3 in for service or repairs and I keep seeing model 3s at the superchargers. The older the Tesla fleet gets, the more service will pay for itself.

 

[avoigt]

The poster writes "how spectacularly wrong" the shorts have been, then takes management's projections at face value. How spectacularly wrong have the Tesla projections been? 100k-200k M3 in 2H of 2017? How wrong have the bull side analysts been over the last many years on profit projections? How wrong were you in projecting Tesla's ramp to millions of cars in a short span?
In reality, the shorts have been more right about many things Tesla than Tesla itself.
At this point, anyone who takes management projections at face value are themselves to blame. I have no sympathy for such people.

Tesla may not run out of cash, but its constant need of external capital can keep on diluting the shareholders or put it in a debt hole.
With the recent setbacks, the bond market is essentially closed. That leaves us with equity dilution the only major way.
Tesla's plunging bonds signal investor worries that it will run out of cash

Unless Tesla figures out a way to manage without more spending, which is unlikely IMHO. With high volumes of M3 comes a need for more service centers, super chargers, and so on. If Tesla doesn't keep up with these, then the brand gets tarnished, which will be a bigger loss in the long run.

All what I can say to you is that if you have read Karens mail carefully all arguments you brought up have no basis. Have you read it at all?

 

[X Yes?]

You might want to be careful at this point. This stock has fallen dramatically and often reverses just as dramatically. While that may not happen, that is it's pattern. No one can argue otherwise. Sentiment for Tesla shifts rapidly and dramatically. If it does, you may find it difficult to exit with your profits since so many others would be looking to close their short positions. A little squeeze could easily happen. Longs would often be wise to do the same after it runs up hard.

You make a good point. It won't be straight down. When Enron tanked there were several up days where investors were able to sell. Today is Easter, a day of Resurrection, no relief today, but who knows Monday?..

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Not just that. It's also about maintaining the various convenants Tesla/Solarcity may have agreed upon with lenders.

As mentioned in my post above:

Current portion of long-term debt and capital leases 796,549 (loan payments due in the next year).

A full listing of Tesla's debt obligations, with amounts, interest rates, and maturity dates, can be found on p. 92 of the 2017 annual report, also linked in post above.

 

[schonelucht]

M3 owners pay for supercharging. Should be about 40% margins in there for Tesla.

Supercharging costs are mouse nuts. And that includes maintenance. Supercharger revenue is nothing for Tesla.

 

[schonelucht]

As mentioned in my post above:

Current portion of long-term debt and capital leases 796,549 (loan payments due in the next year).

A full listing of Tesla's debt obligations, with amounts, interest rates, and maturity dates, can be found on p. 92 of the 2017 annual report, also linked in post above.

Maybe you are misunderstanding me. The minimum cash buffer is not because Tesla from time to time needs to make a payment on current debts and loans but because the convenants of the loans themselves require Tesla to keep certain measures of liquidity.