General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MattEnth]

I'm looking forward to tomorrow. I'm expecting another 8% drop or more after the NTSB criticisms, the recall, and analyst downgrades. There's just no way that Tesla deserves a 45B valuation while burning so much cash and severely losing the autonomous vehicles race.

Headlines over the weekend:

• Through FOIA requests, we know that, as of January, SEC had an ongoing Tesla investigation.
• Tesla issues largest recall in company history
• Tesla admits Autopilot was engaged during fatal Mountain View crash
• NTSB criticises Tesla for not being more helpful examining the crash. Also continued to allude to evidence that victim had documented complaints.

I'm sure the bulls can explain away each one of these, but taken together as extensions of last week's news, I struggle to see how the market would react positively to TSLA.

I don't think Model 3 production numbers will significantly move the stock in either direction. I'm expecting around 1500-2000 for the last week of the quarter, but I really don't think it matters unless they beat 2500 or fall under 1000. As I've mentioned in the past, I think that, around this production rate, the numbers that begin to matter are gross margin (how much cash can they get from each Model 3 line) and CapEx (how much does it cost to ramp up these lines).

I'll also be interested to see how this statement from their Q4 report holds. Can TSLA do extrapolation fairly?

In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3's, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week.​

It will also be very interesting to see what happens to their reservation queue, giving some insight into what percentage of deposits convert to full owners.

 

[Starno]

I'm looking forward to tomorrow. I'm expecting another 8% drop or more after the NTSB criticisms, the recall, and analyst downgrades. There's just no way that Tesla deserves a 45B valuation while burning so much cash and severely losing the autonomous vehicles race.

Headlines over the weekend:

• Through FOIA requests, we know that, as of January, SEC had an ongoing Tesla investigation.
• Tesla issues largest recall in company history
• Tesla admits Autopilot was engaged during fatal Mountain View crash
• NTSB criticises Tesla for not being more helpful examining the crash. Also continued to allude to evidence that victim had documented complaints.

I'm sure the bulls can explain away each one of these, but taken together as extensions of last week's news, I struggle to see how the market would react positively to TSLA.

I don't think Model 3 production numbers will significantly move the stock in either direction. I'm expecting around 1500-2000 for the last week of the quarter, but I really don't think it matters unless they beat 2500 or fall under 1000. As I've mentioned in the past, I think that, around this production rate, the numbers that begin to matter are gross margin (how much cash can they get from each Model 3 line) and CapEx (how much does it cost to ramp up these lines).

I'll also be interested to see how this statement from their Q4 report holds. Can TSLA do extrapolation fairly?

In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3's, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week.​

It will also be very interesting to see what happens to their reservation queue, giving some insight into what percentage of deposits convert to full owners.

Only 8% drop ? Haven't you seen the news ? TSLA is going to 0

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Now that we KNOW that Tesla is bankrupt will the shorts PLEASE stop talking ?

Bankwupt!

 

[HG Wells]

Pennies on the dollar. Pennies on the dollar I tell ya !

Tomorrow is the last day of the spring sale at TESLA ! (Since it went bankrupt).

 

[AZRI11]

Pennies on the dollar. Pennies on the dollar I tell ya !

Tomorrow is the last day of the spring sale at TESLA ! (Since it went bankrupt).

Teslaquila gold label made from elon's tears. Red label shorts tears.

 

[JRP3]

• NTSB criticises Tesla for not being more helpful examining the crash.

​

​

Funny, because the article you linked said Tesla was very helpful, the exact opposite of what you claim. Outright lies are not tolerated on this forum.

 

[ggr]

​

Funny, because the article you linked said Tesla was very helpful, the exact opposite of what you claim. Outright lies are not tolerated on this forum.

From article:

Federal investigators said Sunday they were “unhappy” that Tesla had released information related to a fatal crash involving one of its Model X vehicles late last month.

Sounds like criticism to me.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

From article:

Sounds like criticism to me.

Matt’s statement is that Tesla isn’t helping NTSB, which isn’t what the article says.

NTSB was unhappy that Tesla wrote a blog post about the crash. That is different than refusing to assist NTSB in its investigation.

 

[MattEnth]

Matt’s statement is that Tesla isn’t helping NTSB, which isn’t what the article says.

NTSB was unhappy that Tesla wrote a blog post about the crash. That is different than refusing to assist NTSB in its investigation.

That's fair. I misread the NTSB quote to imply that Tesla wasn't helping, but that does not appear to be the case (and apparently can't edit the post now)

Regardless, it will be interesting to see when NTSB (or the victim's family) publish the documentation regarding autopilot complaints.

 

[MXWing]

It will also be very interesting to see what happens to their reservation queue, giving some insight into what percentage of deposits convert to full owners.

I have an X, I can afford to wait for a different 3 config than what is available.

As I have not placed a Model 3 order, one can determine that my househould has a 0% conversation ratio of Model 3s.

Extrapolating as a whole, this means Tesla has 0% uptake on Model 3s from existing owners!

Though since two are on order in our household, I expect conversion ratio to average out to 163% once AWD and P is available!

 

[MattEnth]

Examples

Oh come on... A sizable part of Tesla's current valuation is the reservation queue. Thousands of people put down $1000 to reserve their spot for a Model 3. Even as a bear, I can recognize that as an impressive feat.

However, there's still a question of how many of them go through with their reservations. If Tesla delivered 10k Model 3s in Q1, but the queue shrunk by 100k, that'd be a pretty big revelation. Similarly, if Tesla delivered 10k Model 3s in Q1, but the queue grew, that'd also be a pretty big revelation.

I'm interested to see how the queue length changes. It's a way for investors and shareholders to get a glimpse into consumer demand for the car.

 

[MXWing]

Oh come on... A sizable part of Tesla's current valuation is the reservation queue. Thousands of people put down $1000 to reserve their spot for a Model 3. Even as a bear, I can recognize that as an impressive feat.

However, there's still a question of how many of them go through with their reservations. If Tesla delivered 10k Model 3s in Q1, but the queue shrunk by 100k, that'd be a pretty big revelation. Similarly, if Tesla delivered 10k Model 3s in Q1, but the queue grew, that'd also be a pretty big revelation.

I'm interested to see how the queue length changes. It's a way for investors and shareholders to get a glimpse into consumer demand for the car.

I don't see the queue dropping by 100K and it's not because I'm bullish.

$1,000 refundable deposit is really nothing for holding a spot in line compared to the total cost of the car as a percentage.

That data point won't help you.

If Tesla can make 5,000 AWD+LR+PUP Model 3s at $58,000ASP (car + EAP), in one month I'm confident 100% Tesla sells an entire two quarters production 40,000 without any difficulty at all.

That's a painful 6 months for bears but they can come get some by shorting about that time period.

 

[JRP3]

From article:

Sounds like criticism to me.

That's not what was being claimed.

 

[AZRI11]

Oh come on... A sizable part of Tesla's current valuation is the reservation queue. Thousands of people put down $1000 to reserve their spot for a Model 3. Even as a bear, I can recognize that as an impressive feat.

However, there's still a question of how many of them go through with their reservations. If Tesla delivered 10k Model 3s in Q1, but the queue shrunk by 100k, that'd be a pretty big revelation. Similarly, if Tesla delivered 10k Model 3s in Q1, but the queue grew, that'd also be a pretty big revelation.

I'm interested to see how the queue length changes. It's a way for investors and shareholders to get a glimpse into consumer demand for the car.

As fast as tesla can make them. Remember uber tried to place an order for at least 1 million so tesla can show their hand, meaning tesla network.

 

[AZRI11]

Sibling who works for a tesla supplier/vendor of factory assembly equipment tells me tonight that an order for tesla/grohmann was placed two weeks ago.They asked for shipment direct to Germany. Sibling held up shipment for one week because shipments always go to california or nevada never germany. I almost cried. Sibling held up shipment to clarify e.u. rules for imports. It arrived a few days ago. Not a large order just parts for equipment. Hope the parts are for additional production line for gigafactory not line that is supposed to be in Nevada already.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Sibling who works for a tesla supplier/vendor of factory assembly equipment tells me tonight that an order for tesla/grohmann was placed two weeks ago.They asked for shipment direct to Germany. Sibling held up shipment for one week because shipments always go to california or nevada never germany. I almost cried. Sibling held up shipment to clarify e.u. rules for imports. It arrived a few days ago. Not a large order just parts for equipment. Hope the parts are for additional production line for gigafactory not line that is supposed to be in Nevada already.

I'm sure if the parts are needed for Nevada Tesla would have it drop shipped directly to Nevada. Grohmann got their hands full working on Tesla stuff, I'm sure there are plenty of stuff, even maybe semi or model Y production prep.

 

[AZRI11]

I'm sure if the parts are needed for Nevada Tesla would have it drop shipped directly to Nevada. Grohmann got their hands full working on Tesla stuff, I'm sure there are plenty of stuff, even maybe semi or model Y production prep.

Hope so.

 

[Krugerrand]

Sibling who works for a tesla supplier/vendor of factory assembly equipment tells me tonight that an order for tesla/grohmann was placed two weeks ago.They asked for shipment direct to Germany. Sibling held up shipment for one week because shipments always go to california or nevada never germany. I almost cried. Sibling held up shipment to clarify e.u. rules for imports. It arrived a few days ago. Not a large order just parts for equipment. Hope the parts are for additional production line for gigafactory not line that is supposed to be in Nevada already.

So your family is responsible for the bankruptcy. Tsk, tsk.

 

[gene]

I just got back from a drive to Los Angeles. I was last there a month ago I saw 2 or 3 Model 3’s. Today I saw 9 of them. 7 of them did not have their plates making them less than a month old. The other 2 with plates would be a month or more old. Brand New Model S and X I saw 4. Model S and X with plates i’d guess I saw 12 or more. It’s hard to worry too much about TSLA when seeing so many around town.

My son who lives in LA and drives a Model 3 says he clearly sees more and more as the days go by.

 

[SPadival]

Teslaquila gold label made from elon's tears. Red label shorts tears.

Is TeslaQuila a play on $TSLAQ? It’s something that Smiegel guy has on every tweet. I have no idea what it means.

BTW, if anyone still has any doubts if Dana Hull has an anti Tesla bias

Dana Hull on Twitter