General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[elasalle]

Looks like we have an uptick in VIN Assignments:


Also Found a LOT of Model 3's in a Tesla lot - Pictures inside has some new pics

(Hats off to the guys/gals providing all this info)

 

[Starno]

There will probably be more Model 3 produced in May than whole Q1.

 

[Spidy]

Huh?

2018Q1 PEV sales in Europe:
#1 Zoe 8562 (AC)
#2 Leaf 8171 (CHAdeMO)
#3 BMW i3 5703 (CCS)
#4 VW e-Golf 5159 (CCS)
#5 Outlander PHEV 4756 (CHAdeMO)
#6 Model S 3824 (Tesla)
#9 Smart fortwo ED 2620 (AC)
#10 Ioniq EV 2553 (CCS)
#14 Model X 2315 (Tesla)

CCS 13,415
CHAdeMO 12,927*
AC 11,182
Tesla 6,139

* In March there were over 6,000 Nissan Leafs sold. If sales remained at March rates the Leaf by itself would see CHAdeMO clearly outselling everything else.

That's already a higher % for CCS. And then consider all the new CCS cars that are coming and the Zoe also getting it. Suddenly the numbers look very different.

 

[hobbes]

Anyone know about Taxi fleets? Once M3 becomes more available - what are the chances that many will convert to all electric?
Tesla could just give them corporate rates on charging etc?

One Example: At Amsterdam Airport, Netherlands they bought 167 S in 2014 and just updated them to new X:
Large Tesla taxi fleet at Amsterdam’s airport gets updated with Model X electric SUVs
Economics seems to work out even with the more expensive cars.

Update: Just saw @NicoV beat me to it!

 

[sub]

The point is but to change the fudsters mind. It's to counter the negativity and lack of facts or flat out lies. It's people reading those tweets and believing them. Most fudsters don't have many followers, they rely on the popularity of $tsla to spreed miss information. If no one is there to counter balance the filth with facts, innocent readers get bad info and make bad investing decision that impact is all.

I added both you and VA on twitter. I've added nearly nothing productive to this thread in 5+ years and 1000 posts so don't expect much help from me! I'll have to figure out how to twit now

 

[mutle]

That's already a higher % for CCS. And then consider all the new CCS cars that are coming and the Zoe also getting it. Suddenly the numbers look very different.

Is there official word yet? I’ve heard these rumors for a long time now and for the last couple of years they only sold the 22kW charging model in Germany which could really need CCS charging.

 

[Waiting4M3]

InsideEV April report is out
April 2018 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card

For April, we estimate Model 3 sales at 3,875. This is essentially flat from the previous month

Seems a little low, but we'll hear something from Tesla directly tomorrow regarding production, and that's more important that deliveries at this point.

 

[ikjadoon]

InsideEV April report is out
April 2018 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card



Seems a little low, but we'll hear something from Tesla directly tomorrow regarding production, and that's more important that deliveries at this point.

I would imagine it would be low because of the temporary shutdown. Because they're still behind in the ramp (hitting internal targets would've netted roughly 10,000 units in April 2017), each day's shutdown will hurt bottom-line of month production in exaggerated fashion.

And a pretty funny typo on the first list:

1. Top Months for U.S. EV Sales to Date (estimated):
   1. March 2018 – 26,373
   2. December 2018 – 26,107
   3. December 2017 – 24,185
   4. September 2017 – 21,242
   5. March 2017 – 18,542

I knew InsideEV's had excellent production estimates, but this is going too far (7 months too far to be exact).

 

[RobStark]

You have to look at countries. Some cars are China only and lot of Chademo is Japan. Both not relevant for the US or Europe. And Europe also has less Teslas.

I post European numbers in the European thread

American numbers in the American thread.

Chinese numbers in the Chinese thread.

A global perspective is also relevant. And this is the general thread.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

InsideEV April report is out
April 2018 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card



Seems a little low, but we'll hear something from Tesla directly tomorrow regarding production, and that's more important that deliveries at this point.

That estimate makes zero sense. There were 2040 Model 3s in transit & 4320 produced in the first two weeks of April (before the shutdown). Even assuming none of the post-shutdown production got delivered (probably true), April deliveries should exceed 6,000.

 

[Starno]

InsideEV April report is out
April 2018 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card



Seems a little low, but we'll hear something from Tesla directly tomorrow regarding production, and that's more important that deliveries at this point.

After the CBS interview, and the leaked email. It's going to be interesting how the production questions will be answered during the EC. Either he will basically just state what has already been said or leaked, which would be disappointing. Or he'll give details, which is going to be interesting.
I mean this time he won't be able to just give " some colors ".

 

[RobStark]

InsideEV April report is out
April 2018 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card

Now InsideEV is going to estimate GM PEV sales. Hmmm.

More references in the mainstream media.

 

[ikjadoon]

That estimate makes zero sense. There were 2040 Model 3s in transit & 4320 produced in the first two weeks of April (before the shutdown). Even assuming none of the post-shutdown production got delivered (probably true), April deliveries should exceed 6,000.

InsideEV's is only estimating production, not deliveries. Does it say deliveries somewhere?

I'm curious about the CBS interview screengrabs: were those including re-work? Does that count as a car that's been produced, if it needs another few days for re-work?

 

[TradingInvest]

Generally I don't like to argue with the shorts about Tesla's financials. If I know Tesla will earn a lot of money next year, why should I help them to understand it? They should stay short.

It's a different matter when they spread false information to tarnish Tesla's image. Such as "Tesla cars are crapy", "The batteries are toxic", "EVs are not useable in winter", "Terrible product quality", "Range goes down a lot in 2 years", "Elon is liar", "Bolt is better than Model 3". These attacks work like negative ads. We should counter these with facts.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

InsideEV's is only estimating production, not deliveries. Does it say deliveries somewhere?

“For April, we estimate Model 3 sales at 3,875.”

 

[SteveG3]

I respect and thank those willing to spend the time and energy fighting the FUD but I personally don't think it helps much, if at all. I also don't do social media as I've said before. I do have a twitter account and follow a few people but I have never tweeted. I learned long ago I can't change people's minds for them, it's takes being hit over the head over and over by reality before they even start to consider it.

I don't think the point is trying to sway the people screaming false narratives on social media about Tesla.

In the courtroom analogy terms of the excellent video below by Tim Urban (the guy Elon invited to SpaceX and Tesla to have one-on-ones with him for long form stories), those pumping out the false narratives are playing as if they are "witch hunters," not interested in intellectual truths, wanting to shut down any other "attorneys" from being heard. What's more, not wanting "jurors" to even be able to deliberate.

I think the point of us responding on social media is to help move the experience from one where "jurors" (perhaps more accurately put, "bystanders") currently are pretty much exposed near exclusively to "witch hunters" screaming falsehoods about Tesla and trying to preemptively smear anyone with anything positive to say about Tesla.

It's the "jurors" and "bystanders" we are trying to reach and help realize that they've been exposed to a firehose of falsehoods about Tesla for years... i.e., for years there has been a group as you say, "hitting people over the head over and over," but, with falsehoods (and, fwiw, I'm pretty confident that in most cases those acting as "witch hunters" don't even believe those falsehoods they've been hitting people over the head with so intensely and repeatedly).

video is only two minutes long, and I highly recommend watching it,

 

[justvisiting]

That estimate makes zero sense. There were 2040 Model 3s in transit & 4320 produced in the first two weeks of April (before the shutdown). Even assuming none of the post-shutdown production got delivered (probably true), April deliveries should exceed 6,000.

well, considering they are really good at their estimates (check their track record) that must mean that they

a) did not actually produce 2000 3 weeks in a row
b) cannot deliver them because their service network is not good enough
c) a LOT of the produced cars are undeliverable (thats my guess, see the video of the parking lot - it makes ZERO sense to store hundreds of vehicles if you could sell them and get cash)
d) they sold thousands in Canada (possible, but i dont think they shipped more than ~500 there)

So how do you explain it?

 

[SteveG3]

I was thinking "FUD Fighters", where succinct rebuttals could be posted for common wrong-things. Copy paste is a lot less work.

agree

Open Source Bear Narrative Rebuttals

Would probably need to be a wiki though...

pretty sure that can be done here on TMC too.

 

[ikjadoon]

“For April, we estimate Model 3 sales at 3,875.”

In my defense, I'm stupid. Thank you for the correction.

So we have three different numbers: production (not ready to be sold for some reason) -> sales (have been marked to depart the factory) -> delivery (customer found a time and made an appointment).

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

c) a LOT of the produced cars are undeliverable (thats my guess, see the video of the parking lot - it makes ZERO sense to store hundreds of vehicles if you could sell them and get cash)

Considering that pictures and videos of the parking lot show these cars being loaded onto delivery trucks & replaced with newly produced cars, it makes ZERO sense for you to make this argument.