General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Waiting4M3]

That may very well be, but until now they have been really good

True to a point, but I don't think InsideEV is more reliable on M3 than TMC. IIRC TMC called both Q4 and Q1 M3 ramp pretty spot on. In the case of Q1, people here were predicting 8k-9k delivery, 9k-10k production, and 2k/wk exit rate as early as mid March. I think in this case the community here is much more knowledgeable than InsideEV.

 

[mongo]

For Q1 M3 delivery, Tesla said in their delivery report on April 3rd:



InsideEV estimated the following on April 4th

Jan 1875
Feb 2485
Mar 3820
------------
Total 8180

It's obvious to me that InsideEV looked at Tesla's number, subtracted their Jan/Feb estimate and arrived at 3820 for March.

Even more obvious if you go to their page. There is an asterisk on the Tesla numbers, and the footnote is:

So, Yes, they adjust the numbers at the end of quarter to match the reported number from Tesla.

 

[Curt Renz]

New York Times - today: California Sues Trump Administration Over Car Emissions Rules

The suit is actually by a coalition of 17 states plus D.C. led by California. It includes my state of Illinois.

 

[Waiting4M3]

i do know what agnostic means, thank you very much. but not knowing things and not getting to the ground of it seems to me like not caring, but maybe i judged your answer wrong, sorry for that

Waiting till we have data <> "not going to the ground of it"

We have concrete data here supporitng that M3 ramp is fine. InsideEV came out with a new opinion that says otherwise, but without showing what data they have supporting it. People choose to believe their own analysis over InsideEV because we have more data here. If you care so much about us getting to the ground of it, help us find the data behind InsideEV's estimate. Show us the data, and it it's solid, we will adjust our hypothesis, but not before then, that is what being agnostic means.

 

[Reality]

I think in this case the community here is much more knowledgeable than InsideEV.

lol, this is awesome


do you know how insideEVs comes up with their estimates?

 

[mongo]

Waiting till we have data <> "not going to the ground of it"

We have concrete data here supporitng that M3 ramp is fine. InsideEV came out with a new opinion that says otherwise, but without showing what data they have supporting it. People choose to believe their own analysis over InsideEV because we have more data here. If you care so much about us getting to the ground of it, help us find the data behind InsideEV's estimate. Show us the data, and it it's solid, we will adjust our hypothesis, but not before then, that is what being agnostic means.

True dat! For all we know, they applied the S/X worldwide shipping adjustment to the 3...

do you know how insideEVs comes up with their estimates?

I'll go with estimation for $200, Alex.

 

[Waiting4M3]

lol, this is awesome


do you know how insideEVs comes up with their estimates?

InsideEV usually doesn't disclose their method, so I can see why you would try to make that argument. But in this specific case, they subtracted their Jan/Feb from Tesla's official announcement to get a March estimate (linked below, thanks to @mongo who dug it up). TMC has been predicting the Q1 #s (delivery, production, and exit rate) spot on starting around mid March. IMO TMC is showing much stronger predicative capability than InsideEV. In fact, "lol this is awesome" is my exact reaction when I saw InsideEC's April #.

 

[Reciprocity]

Premium gasoline prices continue to rise: ValueAnalyst on Twitter

Model 3 owners with solar are saving $2,500 per year in fuel cost.

Think about that.

Lets see.. a 5 year total of 12,500 and as we know, gas prices only go down. A $35,000 Model 3, minus $12,500 is $22,500 or just about the same price as a base Camry. This does not include the fact that a $35,000 car has a high residual value then a $22,500 car and also does not include maintenance. But solar is expensive and its not like you need electricity for your house, so there must be a downside somewhere?

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I did a little FUD fighting today based on the demands here. I hate doing it because it's like arguing with my toddlers and I get to do enough of that but I took the mindset of "this is for bystanders to see, not the tweeter" and that helped a lot. Seeing that my tweets had over 8,000 impressions over that last month shows that many people do see our tweets even if it doesn't feel like it.

 

[Reality]

InsideEV usually doesn't disclose their method, so I can see why you would try to make that argument. But in this specific case, they subtracted their Jan/Feb from Tesla's official announcement to get a March estimate (linked below, thanks to @mongo who dug it up). TMC has been predicting the Q1 #s (delivery, production, and exit rate) spot on starting around mid March. IMO TMC is showing much stronger predicative capability than InsideEV. In fact, "lol this is awesome" is my exact reaction when I saw InsideEC's April #.

Fair enough, but surely you can understand how bias a place like this is vs a place like insideEVs which is widely accepted as fairly accurate

 

[Reciprocity]

New York Times - today: California Sues Trump Administration Over Car Emissions Rules

The suit is actually by a coalition of 17 states plus D.C. led by California. It includes my state of Illinois.

Im pretty agnostic on all of this. Look at Ford. They dumped cars for SUVs and Trucks because this is where they make their profits. Now, do they do that if they dont think fuel economy standards will be relaxed. To me, it plays right into the hands of Tesla, they are cutting cars and going bigger while fuel costs start to rise. This will only accelerate their demise. The government will bail them out of course. But more big vehicles will drive up fuel costs even more due to more demand. Again, this is good for Tesla. Short term it might be bad for the environment but long term, it might help accelerate the failure of those companies that rely on cheap gas. My guess is that Ford is not the only company that will be focused on larger vehicles right at the time fuel goes up and this relaxation might be helping push them into larger vehicles.

 

[SteveG3]

Fair enough, but surely you can understand how bias a place like this is vs a place like insideEVs which is widely accepted as fairly accurate

The bias I’ve seen on TMC is towards a sientific view of the world- facts and rigorous analysis. Sure, we get some bears here casting those aside, and every so often a bull doing the same, but none of that has come close to overturning that basic bias here. I would not object to the media picking up some of that bias (not speaking of InsideEVs specifically).

 

[Waiting4M3]

Fair enough, but surely you can understand how bias a place like this is vs a place like insideEVs which is widely accepted as fairly accurate

If you're referring to the discussion regarding Tesla's long term financial health, market competitiveness, that is a whole different topic, most of it is opinion, not fact, and certainly bias exists. But I don't think you can accuse TMC's VIN counting as "bias" when the #s match Q4 and Q1 results very well, most of it is known and verified facts, not just fan's opinions.

 

[TradingInvest]

I took a look of the "Premium Interior" upgrade for Model 3. I try to figure out how much I would be willing to pay for each item in this upgrade.

• Premium heated seating and cabin materials throughout, including open pore wood décor and two rear USBs (willing to pay $1000)
  
  
• 12-way, power adjustable front seats, steering column and side mirrors, with custom driver profiles (willing to pay $1500)
  
  
• Premium audio system with more power, tweeters, surround speakers and subwoofer (willing to pay $3000)
  
  
• Tinted glass roof with ultraviolet and infrared protection (willing to pay $1500)
  
  
• Auto dimming, power folding, heated side mirrors (willing to pay $500)
  
  
• LED fog lamps (willing to pay $200)
  
  
• Center console with covered storage and docking for two smartphones (willing to pay $400)

If my car is the base model and these items are individually offered to me, I would be willing to pay the price in the parenthesis for each of them. Those add up to $8100. The real upgrade price is $5000.

Usually I wouldn't care much about the audio system in a car, because the road/car noise ruins everything. The model 3 is so quite, and I can actually enjoy the music while driving. Elon twitted several times that he was driving while listening to his favorite music. I played "Going Home" by Kenny G when I was driving. It feels amazing, hard to describe.

I have a home audio system ROTEL + B&W speakers. The sound quality is pretty good. But my son goes to the car to enjoy music after dinner (while parked in the garage). I can understand him. The sound in the Model 3 is really good.

 

[Reality]

If you're referring to the discussion regarding Tesla's long term financial health, market competitiveness, that is a whole different topic, most of it is opinion, not fact, and certainly bias exists. But I don't think you can accuse TMC's VIN counting as "bias" when the #s match Q4 and Q1 results very well, most of it is known and verified facts, not just fan's opinions.

I agree on the VIN counter stuff, i think it is great, as long as we both understand a VIN is not a car

 

[mongo]

Fair enough, but surely you can understand how bias a place like this is vs a place like insideEVs which is widely accepted as fairly accurate

The problem with that statement is, all the other OEMs report sales monthly, so the data is entered verbatim. Tesla only reports quarterly, and the table is adjusted, so the quarterly totals match which make the data look good, but there is zero ability to verify the accuracy of the individual months.

So, for 95% of the data , it is an accurate copy/ paste aggregation, but all of the Tesla data (other than quarterly totals) is estimated and not definitive.

 

[Zaxxon]

Re: earlier discussion of Galileo Russell getting onto tomorrow's conference call to ask a question:

We've talked in the past about trying to get a crowdsourced question 'of ours' into the call. This is probably the best chance we're gonna get for some time. In the video notes for the HyperChange video above, you can see that Galileo is asking for question suggestions via his email ASAP. So if you have something you think he should include, email away.

Edit: I see we also have a member by the name of @HyperChange TV here, but with no content posted. Guessing that that's Galileo and we can get his attention that way, as well.

In any event, congrats to Gali for getting in. Has to be pretty cool to see that many shareholders vouch for you and then Elon Musk reply to you on the Tweeters.

 

[elasalle]

I agree on the VIN counter stuff, i think it is great, as long as we both understand a VIN is not a car

VIN registered at NHTSA is not a car, a VIN assigned and tracked in TMC is actually a car.

 

[RobStark]

Im pretty agnostic on all of this. Look at Ford. They dumped cars for SUVs and Trucks because this is where they make their profits.

IMO even if gas tops $5/gallon we will not see a massive surge for Ford Fiesta 3 door hatchbacks and Focus 4 door sedans.

But for subcompact and compact crossovers like the Ford Ecosport that get 27 mpg city and 29 highway and Ford Escape that gets 23 MPG city and 30 highway. As well as PHEV and BEV crossovers. And Ford is planning on a mass market compact all electric 300 mile range crossover.

Even at $5/gallon I still don't see demand for BEVs topping 20% of new car buyers, demand for ICEv collapsing, and GM,Ford, and FCA filing for bankruptcy.

In real life I have seemed to convince several people to consider buying a PEV but not one to actually pull the trigger and buy one. Gas in Los Angeles has now topped $3.70 for regular. I thought I had convinced my brother in law to get a Clarity PHEV but he bought an Accord 1.5T yesterday instead.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I agree on the VIN counter stuff, i think it is great, as long as we both understand a VIN is not a car

TMC's prediction is based on VIN counting, but the end result is also is on the # of cars, and matches the actual results, in case you're actually confused.