General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ikjadoon]

Considering that pictures and videos of the parking lot show these cars being loaded onto delivery trucks & replaced with newly produced cars, it makes ZERO sense for you to make this argument.

Thus, by your estimates, a minimum of 6,000 Model 3's are in transit or have been delivered to customers in April 2018?

Or the re-work is so minimal, it's not relevant to take into account for production numbers?

 

[Skryll]

That estimate makes zero sense. There were 2040 Model 3s in transit & 4320 produced in the first two weeks of April (before the shutdown). Even assuming none of the post-shutdown production got delivered (probably true), April deliveries should exceed 6,000.

Interesting puzzle, isnt it? So far insideev has been quite spot on, but they also recently were taken over by a big car magazine publisher that let them to their thing without influencing it too much, except for the occasional strange article here and there.

 

[mongo]

In my defense, I'm stupid. Thank you for the correction.

So we have three different numbers: production (not ready to be sold for some reason) -> sales (have been marked to depart the factory) -> delivery (customer found a time and made an appointment).

Sales are only counted when delivered to the customer (at least that's how Tesla does it) so two numbers.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Premium gasoline prices continue to rise: ValueAnalyst on Twitter

Model 3 owners with solar are saving $2,500 per year in fuel cost.

Think about that.

 

[justvisiting]

Considering that pictures and videos of the parking lot show these cars being loaded onto delivery trucks & replaced with newly produced cars, it makes ZERO sense for you to make this argument.

Okay. Point c) is out of the race. So whats it gonna be?

 

[ikjadoon]

Sales are only counted when delivered to the customer (at least that's how Tesla does it) so two numbers.

And InsideEV's does count sales the same as Tesla, as they self-compare to the quarterly numbers. That's the relevant rate, then, because that's when money exchanges hands: the backlog of transit and delayed deliveries should smooth out (i.e., the same relative number of customer/transit delays).

Then, if InsideEV's is accurate, the discrepancy lies in production vs sales. CBS and Elon's leaked email only predicted production. No one stated 6,000 sales, right? Thus the cars are either still at the factory or still in transit.

Or maybe InsideEV's is wildly inaccurate: all those 6,000 have been through QA and delivered. Which doesn't seem likely.

 

[Reality]

well, considering they are really good at their estimates (check their track record) that must mean that they

a) did not actually produce 2000 3 weeks in a row
b) cannot deliver them because their service network is not good enough
c) a LOT of the produced cars are undeliverable (thats my guess, see the video of the parking lot - it makes ZERO sense to store hundreds of vehicles if you could sell them and get cash)
d) they sold thousands in Canada (possible, but i dont think they shipped more than ~500 there)

So how do you explain it?

Solid post, I agree

"In transit" definition might be interesting here, seemed really high given all are NA deliveries, tesla might be counting "in-defect lot/transit" and not all those 2k were delivered making this number make a little more sense.


Of course, that might be construed as fraud so maybe not

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Okay. Point c) is out of the race. So whats it gonna be?

Good question. Like most questions in life, I’m agnostic.

 

[RobStark]

Or maybe InsideEV's is wildly inaccurate: all those 6,000 have been through QA and delivered. Which doesn't seem likely.

I have defended Insideevs estimate for years but at this point I think they significantly underestimate Tesla sales the first two months of a quarter,and when the official quarterly numbers come out, they dump the balance into the third month of the quarter on their report.

 

[justvisiting]

I have defended Insideevs estimate for years but at this point I think they significantly underestimate Tesla sales the first two months of a quarter,and when the official quarterly numbers come out, they dump the balance into the third month of the quarter on their report.

they often estimate the final month before the 8k comes out. I still think they are a very reliable source

 

[justvisiting]

Good question. Like most questions in life, I’m agnostic.

okay. So you just believe that 3,8k is wrong, but dont care why. Solid investment strategy

 

[dmckinstry]

okay. So you just believe that 3,8k is wrong, but dont care why. Solid investment strategy

Agnostic means don't know, not don't care.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

okay. So you just believe that 3,8k is wrong, but dont care why. Solid investment strategy

First of all, you don’t seem to understand what agnostic means. Agnostic means that I don’t know if 3875 is wrong, just that it is in conflict with other data. I don’t know which is right or why.

Second of all, agnosticism is a much better investment strategy than the baseless speculation, confirmation bias, and wishful thinking you’re demonstrating.

 

[ggies07]

Premium gasoline prices continue to rise: ValueAnalyst on Twitter

Model 3 owners with solar are saving $2,500 per year in fuel cost.

Think about that.

Since gas prices are going back up, I'll be saving around $1,700 per year without solar....I love thinking about that!

 

[Waiting4M3]

well, considering they are really good at their estimates (check their track record) that must mean that they

a) did not actually produce 2000 3 weeks in a row

No evidence to support this. If anything, all evidence point against this hypothesis, unless if you think Tesla lied in the Q1 delivery report about the 2020 in the week ending 4/2, or Elon lied on TV telling Gayle King that they made 2070 cars that week, or he lied in the email leaked to media.

b) cannot deliver them because their service network is not good enough

From reports of delivery centers there seem to be constant cycling of cars coming in and going out, and no report of cars piling up. The only place that cars were piling up was at the Fremont lot, which emptied out during the shutdown. So there is sign of bottleneck in shipping logistic, but nothing indicating the service network.

c) a LOT of the produced cars are undeliverable (thats my guess, see the video of the parking lot - it makes ZERO sense to store hundreds of vehicles if you could sell them and get cash)

Parking lot in Fremont emptied out during shutdown, supporting hypothesis that Tesla needed to catch up on shipping logistics, and against the hypothesis that these cars are undeliverable.

d) they sold thousands in Canada (possible, but i dont think they shipped more than ~500 there)

We have not seen a single VIN or delivery report from Canada, so again nothing to support this hypothesis.

So how do you explain it?

IMO I don't see anything supporting your 4 hypothesis, and you missed the most likely possibility that InsideEV is wrong.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Since gas prices are going back up, I'll be saving around $1,700 per year without solar....I love thinking about that!

And this is just the beginning.

A prominent oil investor over the weekend said, “$300 oil in a few years is not impossible,” and I agree.

I’ll let you did the math

 

[Waiting4M3]

they often estimate the final month before the 8k comes out. I still think they are a very reliable source

For Q1 M3 delivery, Tesla said in their delivery report on April 3rd:

Q1 deliveries totaled 29,980 vehicles, of which 11,730 were Model S, 10,070 were Model X, and 8,180 were Model 3.

InsideEV estimated the following on April 4th

Jan 1875
Feb 2485
Mar 3820
------------
Total 8180

It's obvious to me that InsideEV looked at Tesla's number, subtracted their Jan/Feb estimate and arrived at 3820 for March.

 

[ggies07]

Side detail - work for a private school in Dallas and we have at least 10 families with S and Xs. Just found out that besides my Model 3, we will have two other employees getting one by the end of the year. Good times, good times. Just had to share my excitement.... I was the very first one here at the school back in 2012 that knew about Tesla and now it's growing.....and probably exponentially next year when the ramp is full blast and other families figure out what the 3 is all about.

 

[justvisiting]

No evidence to support this. If anything, all evidence point against this hypothesis, unless if you think Tesla lied in the Q1 delivery report about the 2020 in the week ending 4/2, or Elon lied on TV telling Gayle King that they made 2070 cars that week, or he lied in the email leaked to media.

From reports of delivery centers there seem to be constant cycling of cars coming in and going out, and no report of cars piling up. The only place that cars were piling up was at the Fremont lot, which emptied out during the shutdown. So there is sign of bottleneck in shipping logistic, but nothing indicating the service network.

Parking lot in Fremont emptied out during shutdown, supporting hypothesis that Tesla needed to catch up on shipping logistics, and against the hypothesis that these cars are undeliverable.

We have not seen a single VIN or delivery report from Canada, so again nothing to support this hypothesis.

IMO I don't see anything supporting your 4 hypothesis, and you missed the most likely possibility that InsideEV is wrong.

That may very well be, but until now they have been really good

 

[justvisiting]

First of all, you don’t seem to understand what agnostic means. Agnostic means that I don’t know if 3875 is wrong, just that it is in conflict with other data. I don’t know which is right or why.

Second of all, agnosticism is a much better investment strategy than the baseless speculation, confirmation bias, and wishful thinking you’re demonstrating.

i do know what agnostic means, thank you very much. but not knowing things and not getting to the ground of it seems to me like not caring, but maybe i judged your answer wrong, sorry for that