I thought that GM stopped reporting sales monthly and that they are going to quarterly reports like Tesla.
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I thought that GM stopped reporting sales monthly and that they are going to quarterly reports like Tesla.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Yes, Bolt, Volt,and CT6 PHEV are guesstimates for the first two months of the quarter as well.
Here?
12-28-17 New Invite / Configuring / Delivery Spreadsheet
I didnt see that they counted deliveries until now, so thanks for pointing me to this!
Reciprocity
Active Member
I get your point, but its the rotation that will kill them. People rotating out of profitable models into those razor then margin vehicles at a time when they are trying to sell EVs at a loss. Who knows, maybe they will make money from the EVs right the start. Apparently you can just fart out profitable EVs on your first try if you are a big time auto maker.
Right now Elon's responsibility at Tesla include: CEO, Chairman, product architect, sales, marketing, and Model 3 production. I think he is doing a fantastic job. If Elon doesn't think he needs a COO, then he doesn't need a COO.
Buddyroe
Active Member
So no other car companies started in the last 70 years. A dozen or more of other EV makers come and gone in the last few years including Fisker. 50% YOY sales growth. Not a penny spent on advertising. Most amazing automobile ever built. I mean, WHY would be want EM to keep running things?
What......hand it over to someone who we have no idea about? And people on this forum will tell you, I am critical of EM when I think it is warranted. Does that mean I want anyone else in charge? Heck no.
So basically, I agree with you.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Mostly trash.. as usual. Anyone who thinks you can bring in a COO to control the message is nutz. Who is going tell Elon to shut up? I dont care if he says crazy *sugar*. I have learned to tune it out and focus on results. Its not really hard and I think others know how to tune it out as well. Apparently journalist and opinion writers have not figured it out yet or they like writing stories about the stuff he says.. probably the latter, which makes them even more dishonest. But clicks are clicks.
Here is a good quote:
This is actually very insightful as I have never seen someone write this, specifically the stuff in bold. This is something shorts dont get or dont want to get. Tesla has spent several years building factories and capacity. Fremont, S and X and now 3. The entire Gigafactory1 and GF2. Only recently has all this stuff come together. GF2 is producing finally. GF1 is 1 machine from 5k/w for auto packs and how knows for Powerpacks and Powerwalls, but no doubt close. Fremont can now produce 2k/w S and X with great fit and finish and no issues with just 2 shifts. Tesla was spending north of $1B a quarter on Capex to accomplish this. They have all but payed those dues. Per Depak on the last call or the one before it, he talked about how Q1 would be the final quarter with any major Capex for the model 3 and Q2 would only be a fraction of the normal Capex for Model 3. That means that after Q2, Tesla will have completed the expansion and paid for it, that it started years ago. The payoff will be in Q3-Q4 which is why Elon is so confident. Certainly there will still be Capex but its going to be hundreds of millions and not $1B+ those 2 qtrs.
Another thing shorts do not get. Capex for 5k-10k will be less then 0-5k and it will be much faster because the lines will already work before that equipment is ordered, they are just copying parts of the line. Also, the way this works, Tesla does not pay for the new equipment until it is running and validated to be working properly, which means the day its producing Model 3s for real is when the payment becomes due and they will probably have some terms, at least 15 days. What this means is that Tesla wont have to pay the Capex or the parts for 5k model 3s a week until after it works. We already know they can deliver the cars before they have to pay for the parts, so they have extra time for that. The machines will probably be ordered once 6k is achieved and they will be in place by the end of Q4 and verified soon after the new year starts. This should allow them to ramp fairly quickly to 7k, 8k and then eventually 10k. The ink will barely be dry on the check for the Capex when the new line is pumping out thousands of additional cars a week. The total price tag is also lower, as little as 50%.
Tesla does not need a COO, they need a better pr department. Every time Elon says something they should put out a statement clarifying what was said with all the proper caveats like, Elon is going to try really hard but it may be impossible, but eventually we will deliver. But you know Elon, he is a wildly optimistic person so take his estimates with a grain of salt and adjust accordingly.
Adjust accordingly people. Elon is always late but Tesla is always a few years early and 5+ years ahead of the competition.
I think shorts understand Tesla's CapEx very well. It's a key part of the bear argument.
Their Q4 letter said they expected higher CapEx in 2018 than 2017. Tesla's CFO said "way more than 50%" of that would go to the Model 3 ramp.
So, reading into that: Tesla has 3.5B cash and they're expecting to spend more than 3.4B on CapEx. Roughly 2B of the 3.5B cash on hand going just to CapEx for the Model 3.
This is the central argument! Cash is king, and if Tesla can't start producing the Model 3 profitably and at scale soon, they're screwed. It's right there in the 10K.
It's probably why Tesla is switching to 24/7 production. They've looked into the future, they see they can't afford the CapEx, and so their solution is to increase capital utilization. It's desperate and stroke evidence of a cash crunch. It's why I'm confidently short heading into earnings.
Plans can obviously change, and Tesla may be able to recover from a Model 3 blunder.
The issue is that, when you take out that Model 3 CapEx and customer deposits, you're left with maybe 1B cash, much of which was planned for other business functions.
How are they going to scale the Semi AND invest in autonomous driving AND begin Model Y production AND create a Roadster line AND pay off their debts?
... The shorts point to this as the trigger for a supplier run. When they pay is different from a commitment to pay. These machines are ordered months in advance. They can't just tell suppliers "hey, that machine we ordered, we don't want it anymore."
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Fiesta,Focus,Fusion,and Taurus are not profitable. Well, it has been reported Fusion makes about $200 per vehicle.It is said they are saving $25B in not developing the next generation sedans and putting that into not only trucks/crossovers but electrified vehicles.
Ecosport and Escape are profitable. People are willing to pay about $3000 more for Fiesta based crossover and about $4000 more for a Focus based crossover.
Ford doesn't need their 1st gen BEVs to be profitable to survive. They just need to cross the valley of death before Tesla is making 1M pickups per year.
IMO FCA is toast. And at least one of remaining Detroit automakers will make it maybe both.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Tesla agrees to partially reimburse people who bought Autopilot 2.0 in $5 million settlement of class action lawsuit
$20-$280? Even the high end seems rather low considering what was delivered compared to what was implied.
$20-$280? Even the high end seems rather low considering what was delivered compared to what was implied.
skitown
Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
GM and Ford have about a ~$30B rainy day fund.
FCA does not. As part of their agreement to takeover Chrysler, the Feds gave x amount of shares to the UAW for unfunded pension liabilities and FCA has spent the last 8 years or so buying those shares back.
Marchione killing Dodge and Chrysler subcompact,compact and midsize sedans was bold and the correct decision. Spending billions on trying to revive Alfa Romeo and Maserati has so far proven unfruitful.
As a result I think GM and Ford can survive a recession while FCA can not.
Additionally FCA is incorporated in the Netherlands but domiciled in the UK for tax purposes.
Which politicians do they go to for a bailout? Rome,Washington DC, Amsterdam or London?
MartinAustin
Active Member
I have been driving my Model S around Austin for Uber, Lyft and now Ride|Austin since 2015. I've done about 5,000 rides. Thousands of smiling faces exiting the car
And definitely putting Tesla (and BEVS in general) on their radar.(Don't use Uber or Lyft when you come to Austin! Don't forget they have their own solution which is cheaper and better quality - www.rideaustin.com)
Sudre
Active Member
I found this humorous because once Tesla starts delivering 5,000 (1 weeks production) Model 3s to Europe every months those Tesla number suddenly dwarf everything.
MartinAustin
Active Member
I'm surprised no-one has mentioned this text on InsideEVs -
Now that fixes have been made in Fremont and the Gigafactory, we should look forward to a surge for May, followed by a leap in June to end Q2. Still, our Model 3 April delivery estimate of 3,875 is impressive considering the circumstances
They're pretty much acknowledging that the >6,000 produced in April didn't all get delivered in April, and will probably be delivered in May. The cars produced in March were delivered in April, broadly speaking.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Yes that is the one. Reported April deliveries is ~30% higher than March (350 vs 269). The Google Sheet takes some time to load, I usually use the version that only loads the charts, which is a lot quicker.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I think this has to be the most likely explanation. I think InsideEV is basically only counting the 1st week of April production to be delivered in April. I read in some thread someone in Florida claims it takes Tesla 3 weeks to ship the car out to Florid. It may be an extreme case, but if InsideEV is being extremely conservative here, that could be how they're approaching April delivery. I still disagree with their approach, but at least I can understand it.
Reciprocity
Active Member
That adds up to one free share in Tesla for me. Can I just have the share please, save me having to buy it in my account.
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