How about this: Model 3 ASP in the second half of 2018 may be more than $60,000.
Since Standard Range is now a 2019 story, and P (10% take rate) and D (50%) are
around the corner, as well as already popular EAP (80% take rate) and possible FSD-exclusive features in the coming months with the new-and-improved Karpathy-magic neural networks (50% take rate in 2H18 but possibly as high as 80% with a killer feature like even highway-only Level 3 at $3,000), including wheels and premium paint and delivery:
OPTIONS
Enhanced Autopilot: $5,000; 80% take rate
Full Self-Driving: $3,000; 80% take rate as exclusive features roll out
Premium Upgrades Package: $5,000; 50% take rate
Premium Wheels: $1,500 to $4,500; 50% take rate with $2,000 average
Paint: $1,000 to $1,500; 80% take rate with $1,200 average
MODELS
Long Range: $44,000 - 45%
Long Range with Dual: $49,000 - 45%
Performance with Dual: $75,000 - 10%
ASP without options: $49,350
ASP of options: $10,860
ASP: $60,210 excluding $1,000 delivery
Model 3 ASP may be more than $60,000 in 2H18.
Now consider that the ultra-bearish UBS analyst had estimated Model 3 breakeven (not COGS but EBIT-level so including R&D and SG&A expenses) at $41,000 (
page 45 of 95) even using $160/kWh battery cost estimate, which is just dumb. His other dumb assumptions include D&A per unit and Warranty Provision per unit, which should be combined $3,000 per unit lower, but to be conservative, let's use his bear-level dumb assumptions.
$60,000 ASP in 2H18 - $41,000 COGS, R&D, SG&A = $19,000 EBIT per Model 3
31.66% EBIT margin in 2H18.
That's better than Apple.
