General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Yggdrasill]

Regarding the SpaceX Roadster option(s), my thoughts of where you might have useful tech:

- Carbon fiber. The base Roadster may use aluminium extensively, and if you could cut weight by 50 kg, that would be meaningful.
- Brake chute. Required for drag racing, I understand.
- Active aerodynamic features. Spoiler, adjustable diffuser, maybe a fan for creating negative pressure under the car. Means you can have a Cd of 0.25 for long distance cruising, and then you go to the track, enable sport-mode and have massive downforce.
- This is quite hypothetical, but it would be awesome if Tesla went with something like this: A high pressure tank, with a rearward facing nozzle. A pump increases tank pressure to say 700 bar, and in launch mode, all that pressure is emptied though the nozzle in about 3 seconds. I haven't done the math, but it wouldn't surprise me if it could knock the 1.9 seconds down to 1.5 seconds.

 

[ls7corvete]

Regarding the SpaceX Roadster option(s), my thoughts of where you might have useful tech:

- Carbon fiber. The base Roadster may use aluminium extensively, and if you could cut weight by 50 kg, that would be meaningful.
- Brake chute. Required for drag racing, I understand.
- Active aerodynamic features. Spoiler, adjustable diffuser, maybe a fan for creating negative pressure under the car. Means you can have a Cd of 0.25 for long distance cruising, and then you go to the track, enable sport-mode and have massive downforce.
- This is quite hypothetical, but it would be awesome if Tesla went with something like this: A high pressure tank, with a rearward facing nozzle. A pump increases tank pressure to say 700 bar, and in launch mode, all that pressure is emptied though the nozzle in about 3 seconds. I haven't done the math, but it wouldn't surprise me if it could knock the 1.9 seconds down to 1.5 seconds.

The potential energy stored in batteries is already well beyond compressed gas. Even for short burts, tesla can always use higher C rate batteries as well.

 

[Yggdrasill]

The potential energy stored in batteries is already well beyond compressed gas. Even for short burts, tesla can always use higher C rate batteries as well.

Doesn't matter when you can't transfer that energy into forward momentum. Tires are a huge limitation at lower speeds.

Improving beyond 1.9 seconds for 0-60 mph requires stuff like on the Challenger Demon, where you have narrow tires at the front and really wide tires at the back. I don't think Tesla will go that route. A non-tire-based propulsion method would fit in quite nicely with SpaceX tech.

 

[sub]

The potential energy stored in batteries is already well beyond compressed gas. Even for short burts, tesla can always use higher C rate batteries as well.

Not a physics major and not saying the compressed gas idea is good, but wouldn't it help overcome traction limits in theory? Only so much force you can lay down with rubber.

Edit @Yggdrasill beat me to it.

 

[SteveG3]

Daimler is suddenly paying attention. I wonder how this will go in 2020/2021 when Semi reaches the market.

Daimler Adds Two Electric Trucks in Race Against Tesla, VW

longer range of those two trucks, 250 miles

 

[dc_h]

With a top speed of 250, I think the best option would be a capsule enclosure that provides the ultimate in protection such that even if the entire vehicle disintegrates upon hitting something at 250, the occupant would be protected. While it might be a costly option, it gets a lot less expensive in volumes and such a feature would be desirable for anyone who gets in a car. Who knows? It may be possible to make it out of bubble wrap.

Comes with 10 million umbrella policy and auto dials emergency services when you crash?

More seriously I expect materials from SpaceX. Advanced glass, inconel wheels, and other advanced materials and use of 3D additive manufacture of high performance parts.

 

[TradingInvest]

Regarding the SpaceX Roadster option(s), my thoughts of where you might have useful tech:

- Carbon fiber. The base Roadster may use aluminium extensively, and if you could cut weight by 50 kg, that would be meaningful.
- Brake chute. Required for drag racing, I understand.
- Active aerodynamic features. Spoiler, adjustable diffuser, maybe a fan for creating negative pressure under the car. Means you can have a Cd of 0.25 for long distance cruising, and then you go to the track, enable sport-mode and have massive downforce.
- This is quite hypothetical, but it would be awesome if Tesla went with something like this: A high pressure tank, with a rearward facing nozzle. A pump increases tank pressure to say 700 bar, and in launch mode, all that pressure is emptied though the nozzle in about 3 seconds. I haven't done the math, but it wouldn't surprise me if it could knock the 1.9 seconds down to 1.5 seconds.

Tesla could add 4 miniature rockets to hop into the air for a few seconds when the car detects an imminent heads-on collision. Or use the propulsion (push backward) to bring the car to instant stop in emergency.

 

[renim]

Well every single manufacturer has a target for sub $100kw, but most assume that is something they might achieve in the years 2025-2030

pretty sure it in context of the 60kWh nissan evs, so that is sometime between late 2018 and 2025.

realistically, if ghosn could have bought cells cheaper from panasonic than from LG, he would have.
and, if LG was cheaper than panasonic, JB would've bought cells from there.

for equivalent performance, the cell price for committed flexible players will be similar, very similar.

if a purchaser is willing to accept Chinese standards, then cell prices can be even cheaper yet.

 

[Lessmog]

Regarding the SpaceX Roadster option(s), my thoughts of where you might have useful tech:

- Carbon fiber. The base Roadster may use aluminium extensively, and if you could cut weight by 50 kg, that would be meaningful.
- Brake chute. Required for drag racing, I understand.
- Active aerodynamic features. Spoiler, adjustable diffuser, maybe a fan for creating negative pressure under the car. Means you can have a Cd of 0.25 for long distance cruising, and then you go to the track, enable sport-mode and have massive downforce.
- This is quite hypothetical, but it would be awesome if Tesla went with something like this: A high pressure tank, with a rearward facing nozzle. A pump increases tank pressure to say 700 bar, and in launch mode, all that pressure is emptied though the nozzle in about 3 seconds. I haven't done the math, but it wouldn't surprise me if it could knock the 1.9 seconds down to 1.5 seconds.

Increasing speed-fart?

 

[Yggdrasill]

- This is quite hypothetical, but it would be awesome if Tesla went with something like this: A high pressure tank, with a rearward facing nozzle. A pump increases tank pressure to say 700 bar, and in launch mode, all that pressure is emptied though the nozzle in about 3 seconds. I haven't done the math, but it wouldn't surprise me if it could knock the 1.9 seconds down to 1.5 seconds.

Okay, I did some math. A 50 liter tank at 700 bar contains 45 kg of air. At an Isp of 50, and a burst of 3 seconds, it provides an additional 7350N of thrust. That's sufficient to drop 0-60 down to about 1.4 seconds. (0-100 km/h without rollout of 1.7 seconds.)

This tank could weigh around 40 kg, so the whole system could weigh around 100 kg. That's not prohibitive.

 

[winfield100]

Okay, I did some math. A 50 liter tank at 700 bar contains 45 kg of air. At an Isp of 50, and a burst of 3 seconds, it provides an additional 7350N of thrust. That's sufficient to drop 0-60 down to about 1.4 seconds. (0-100 km/h without rollout of 1.7 seconds.)

This tank could weigh around 40 kg, so the whole system could weigh around 100 kg. That's not prohibitive.

and use short bursts to dissuade tailgaters....or deflect rear end collisions....., the possibilities are "mind boggling'

 

[Sudre]

Sooo, is anyone else concerned that they're using three general assembly lines to get to 5000/week?

Elon said that the two existing lines could eventually get to 5K/week (paraphrasing) and the new one is better.

The third line is going to produce at a higher/improved rate. I see no reason why they would not go back and improve the original two lines since the new third line might produce say, 2700 and line 1 maybe around 2300. Line 2 keep running at 2500. The first line can be stopped and upgraded to 2900. Then work your way back thru the other two one at a time and you have 10Kish on the three lines with improved tweaks/automation every upgrade.

 

[EinSV]

The third line is going to produce at a higher/improved rate. I see no reason why they would not go back and improve the original two lines since the new third line might produce say, 2700 and line 1 maybe around 2300. Line 2 keep running at 2500. The first line can be stopped and upgraded to 2900. Then work your way thru the other two one at a time and you have 10Kish on the three lines with improved tweaks/automation every upgrade.

That makes sense to me -- especially since Elon said that they had the new (third) line up and running in two weeks.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I guess I was the only one when Elon said SpaceX that I thought, “Hmmm, Block 5 paint scheme”

 

[MikeC]

Cross-posting Ihor's short report:

https://s3partners.net/Research/TSLA14.php

 

[The Blue Owl]

Daimler unveils an all-electric big rig truck consistent with the laws of physics

Quote:

Daimler AG unveiled on Wednesday an all-electric big rig truck it promises to have in production in 2021, as the German automaker mounts a major challenge to European manufacturers and Tesla.

Daimler said its Freightliner eCascadia, with a range of up to 250 miles (400 km) and an 80,000 lb (36 tonne) gross combined weight, will be suitable for regional distribution and port shipments.

Daimler also unveiled a medium-duty Freightliner eM2 106, with a range of up to 230 miles, designed for local distribution, food and beverage delivery, and "final-mile" logistics services.

Daimler said it will deliver 30 vehicles to customers later this year for field-testing and expects to have the trucks in production by 2021.​

 

[Pete_Lee]

I had a recent test drive in a new 100dvwith the vegan interior. The seat was amazingly my, so much better than early 85’s. I don’t see this as an issue.

Respectfully, I must point out that vegan food has improved dramatically since the eighties: probably explains why vegans have better hides now.

 

[Intl Professor]

Cross-posting Ihor's short report:

https://s3partners.net/Research/TSLA14.php

What's the meaning of this bolded by me snippet in above?

"Musk received an overwhelming vote of confidence and will continue his dual corporate role when a proposal by Norway’s wealth fund to strip him of his Chairman’s crown was defeated handily."

 

[neroden]

• When Elon explained why Lidar is no good he lost 100% of the audience. His brain just works on a different level..

Oh, I liked that explanation. Makes perfect sense.

• Elon admitted that Elon time is not realistic right after he has given tons of concrete due dates and timelines to the audience

 

[neroden]

Remember there are many lines.

Neroden, I don’t think you can conclude anything unless we know how many general assembly lines were planned with the latest gross margin forecasts. Assuming there were only going to be 2 lines per 5,000 may not be correct. We just don’t know.

We do indeed have a great lack of information -- on this we agree

I hope we will get some more detail on the production rate of the various GA lines at some point.