General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Henchman]

All my coworkers mutter the media-fuled lies about Tesla, and i have to refute and try to educate them.

people often compare tesla to apple and the iphone, but this just feels so much more significant than the iphone moment. i dunno, maybe its because i've got my tesla blinders on but it really does feel like a real turning point in history.

at this point no amount of negative articles can stop the tesla avalanche, imo.

people believe in TESLA, people believe in Elon, and i LOVE LOVE LOVE my model f'ing 3.

No. You're right.
This is a very significant point j History

 

[mutle]

Right. At that point the message was that "we made as much cars last week as the entire previous quarter". A 100 plus or minus would not have mattered. They did not hit the 2500 anyway.

And the Moody's downgrade happened before those numbers were even released, so can't even claim the intention was to prevent them from issuing the downgrade.

 

[mutle]

Same here in Granada Hills.
Seeing a LOT of model 3's

None yet in Germany (except You You's M3 a while ago). But I keep seeing X and S much more commonly than a year ago. Looking forward to the 3 explosion here next year (or even better, if they could start some deliveries this year).

 

[avoigt]

I’ve family members (senior citizens) that have just received their model 3 recently. The interesting thing is the news doesn’t matter to them since they enjoy the car. As a matter of fact they have allowed their friends (senior citizens) to drive it knowing only the news and have actually shown interest in buying one.

From my observation, it seems that the proof is in the product. When model 3s start showing up in neighborhoods in large numbers, the reality is more cars (a lot) will be ordered.

The financial media plays upon the newness of Tesla and that unproven newness scares the broader uninformed public. But when the broader public see it in person and friends and family show up at the house in one, the frame of reference changes from media middleman driven, to personal experience and which profoundly changes the broader consumer confidence level.

In my neighborhood, I’m seeing a significant spike in model 3s in and around the area. I remember the samething happened when model s Popping up around here in mass when they were ramping in q1 2013. Same feel. I tend to trust my eyes more so after that experience.

The superiority of the 3 is hard to comprehend for people until they drive one. That does change everything.

The very high reservations seem as far as we know to stay very high at least that is what Tesla Management confirmed a couple of times. If they would feel like they need to do a little for demand they would have plenty of options but it looks like there is no need.

Its a unique situation in history we have here and another strategic mistake that media and automakers to name just 2 are making by believing, this its just that one pile of reservations and after worked through it will go down.

My prediction is that the amount of reservations and orders will grow as a function of 3s on the road and Tesla capabilities to build and deliver more cars per week.

 

[Foghat]

Same here in Granada Hills.
Seeing a LOT of model 3's

My area, West LA seeing a surge in past month, month and a half.

Relatives in northwest and Midwest ordered, midwest have received car first.

 

[ggies07]

people often compare tesla to apple and the iphone, but this just feels so much more significant than the iphone moment. i dunno, maybe its because i've got my tesla blinders on but it really does feel like a real turning point in history.

oh yes, it is much bigger. Society is about to be free of the choke hold that the elite had on it since Kings and Queens controlled the forests for their energy needs. Solar, EVs, and battery storage allow the consumer to control their energy habits and a lot of people can't even see this yet....

 

[neroden]

The whistleblower argument is standing on very thin ice.

He had evidence that Tesla lied on Model 3 production numbers? He should have gone to the SEC. Those numbers were filed with them so lying about them would constitute deceiving shareholders and the SEC would crack down.

He had evidence that unsafe components (punctured cells) were put in cars? He should have gone to the NHTSA! They have the authority to pull the model from the market if Tesla is knowingly producing unsafe vehicles.

Unsafe work conditions? Nevada authorities! Lying on amount of scrap and resulting financial loss to make the company look better? Probably the SEC again!

Any claim you want to make you can go to a government entity and get official whistleblower protection and an investigation.

So did he do any of that?

Nah... rather started leaking to the media.

Even if you're going to the media (because, say, you don't trust the government), what you do is privately assemble a dossier of evidence, *including* the evidence that you reported everything to your bosses and were ignored by them. And then you *resign* and go to the media. That's standard for serious whistleblowers.

 

[Foghat]

Even if you're going to the media (because, say, you don't trust the government), what you do is privately assemble a dossier of evidence, *including* the evidence that you reported everything to your bosses and were ignored by them. And then you *resign* and go to the media. That's standard for serious whistleblowers.

Tripp also stated first he is concerned for investors then for the public... why even mention investors? Why not just point out the safety concerns if you are a whistleblower? How can he even comment as a whistleblower on financial matters when he’s not employed in that function?

It appears more evidence to suggest this is a story to focus on the stock as the ramp happens. The financial pressures of betting Tesla can’t get capital anymore, that is will be snuffed out financially then taken over is at the threshold of failure here. Someone should do an analysis of short interest peaking, the ramp coming closer to happening, and the media attention to everything negative on elon and Tesla. It could indicate noticeable correlations

 

[Waiting4M3]

i saw some other unrelated article saying that reservations were flatlining. proving its because of this or other negative publicity is going to be a challenge though.

Tesla told us that the overall reservation # is still ~ 500k as before, but they have more detailed daily cancellation and new reservation #. It's possible that they can demonstrate cancellation rate spiking on days corresponding with these hit pieces, and prove harm. The fact that the reservation stays flat is due to new reservations coming in despite the hit pieces.

 

[neroden]

If the short sellers really do manage to force the stock down during the critical February 2019 period, I wonder if we can crowdfund $900 million in private-placement stock purchases to pay off the convertibles... I kind of suspect Larry Page would do it by himself

 

[Reciprocity]

I am 100% certain the lawsuit is not about collecting Tripp's money - he surely doesn't have deep enough pockets to pay the damages he caused. It's about getting to discovery and finding out who was pulling his strings.

The million dollars is to cover any gains tripp made selling the information or trading on the false information. So there maybe more to collect than you think.

 

[Waiting4M3]

If the short sellers really do manage to force the stock down during the critical February 2019 period, I wonder if we can crowdfund $900 million in private-placement stock purchases to pay off the convertibles... I kind of suspect Larry Page would do it by himself

If the shorts want to depress the PPS I suspect they will want to do it in Nov-Dec time frame, when the decision on the convertibles will have to be made by Tesla. Hopefully Q3/Q4'18 GAAP profit (Q4 earnings report in Feb), and prospect of profit in Q1'19 and potential S&P500 inclusion after Q1'19 earnings report in May will drive the shorts away by Feb.

 

[mutle]

“Yesterday afternoon, we received a phone call from a friend of Mr. Tripp telling us that Mr. Tripp would be coming to the Gigafactory to ‘shoot the place up,’” a Tesla spokesman said in an email. “Police have been notified and actions are being taken to enhance security at the Gigafactory.”

Alleged Tesla saboteur says ‘Elon was lying to investors;’ Tesla says he threatened violence

 

[Rarity]

Interesting which news outlets are still publishing on this story. I notice that Bloomberg is now more or less radio silence.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Wow, I wasn’t far off when I said this saboteur thing is going to need popcorn to watch. That guy better get a lawyer soon or else he’s going to talk himself into a jail sentence.

 

[Brando]

The declassified Soviet files show that they developed their A bomb on their own. The declassified US files show that they were right to fear a US unprovoked first strike nuclear attack, so they had good reason to. :sigh:
...
Only when the evidence of radioactive isotopes in children's baby teeth was brought to the attention of JFK and Khrushchev did world leaders start to understand the true nature of the horror they had created, leading to the Partial Test Ban Treaty. Even then, deranged factions in both militaries tried to blow up as many nukes in the atmosphere as possible before the treaty went into effect, poisoning a generation of children even more,

To appreciate just how lucky we all are I suggest this book "Atomic Accidents"
https://www.amazon.com/Atomic-Accidents-Meltdowns-Disasters-Mountains/dp/1605986801
The above book the author is actually pro-nuclear and wants to help the industry work better. warning - may yield nightmares.

side note: The wasted money, just in nuclear weapons is beyond comprehension.

 

[ktrivedi70]

Great thanks for the many kind words of support from fellow TMC members, both within this message board and on Twitter over the past 24 hours. You folks are the good ones, the righteous ones.

Curt, let them say what they will. As far as I'm concerned, you are both a gentleman and a scholar.
Illegitimi non carborundum.

 

[ggr]

i saw some other unrelated article saying that reservations were flatlining. proving its because of this or other negative publicity is going to be a challenge though.

Even verifying if it is true or not is a challenge, since the only people who know are at Tesla and they aren't saying.

 

[schonelucht]

Whether Elon emailed or not, citing “Emails provided to the Post” and treating that as gospel, and running with that story, is the very crux of the problem in the first place. It’s trivial to forge an email forwarded to a journalist. Harder to fake the server’s record of that email being sent. Proof of the latter, or at the very least a response from the accused, is warranted before these kinds of stories get published.

Seems many publications still have a lot to learn about responsible journalism.

Tesla confirmed the emails. It's mind boggling that Tesla's general counsel did not stop Elon from sending them. In fact it's clear he sent them without consulting anyone at all otherwise he wouldn't have to correct a typo directly contradicting his message.

All the points of Tesla doing this to discover who else is besides the leaks are well taken. But consider that the other side will just as well have the opportunity to run discovery. And as Elon himself wrote in an email 'of course a billion dollar company has millions of waste'. Maybe true but we know the message is going to be 'Tesla wastes millions'. At least, Tesla picked a firm that's apparently specialized in minimizing investigations and discovery disclosures.

 

[Todd Burch]

Tesla confirmed the emails. It's mind boggling that Tesla's general counsel did not stop Elon from sending them. In fact it's clear he sent them without consulting anyone at all otherwise he wouldn't have to correct a typo directly contradicting his message.

Uhh...some guy from the WaPo on Twitter who tweets every hour about Tesla and clearly has an agenda is NOT a source. Those are NOT the posts of an objective journalist.

And to be clear, even if Elon DID send that email, good on him. He's right. Tripp is an ass. And likely a criminal.