General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[scaesare]

There is a cross pipe between ribbons (black feature between ribbons). It is capped with the round feature visible on the near ribbon. The ribbon is a flattened tube for cooling with an electrically insulated cover.

Didn't see the cross pipes until I magnified a bit, good catch.

So I guess my question is: are we seeing a heat pipe mechanism in that cooling ribbon rather than a glycol conduit?

 

[sundaymorning]

VW is announcing to stop production for 1-2 days per week in their main location in Wolfsburg as well as some other plants. This will start after the summer pause. They inform that in Q3 and Q4 they will also stop production partly.

Reason: The new more strict emission testing and certification WLTP - that has been announced a few years ago.

Its somehow not clear to me how they could not prepare for this in advance and properly....

Vier-Tage-Woche: Auch Volkswagen drosselt die Produktion wegen Abgasregeln

Great info. Here’s an article in English.

Volkswagen Wolfsburg to halt production for 1-2 days a week amid WLTP delays | Autocar

 

[scaesare]

My thoughts,

Aluminium is a metal that scores high to transfer heat. I could assume that the long divider medal you see here wrapped between the cell rows are the aluminum elements he talks about.

Controlling heat is all about helping to guide the heat to the outside. Cooling is exactly that. The green past could be a material that is intended to enlarge the surface between the battery cell and the aluminum divider and is good at taken heat away as well as guiding it to the aluminium strip.

Well, if it's using some of the IP discussed in the patent, it's actually a heat-pipe mechanism that uses fluid phase change... not unlike CPU coolers. It wouldn't just be an aluminum heat sink.

 

[justvisiting]

Ok, 300k may have been a bit of a stretch, but i am happy to come back to this post and discuss with you on January 3rd. My money is on 250-300k (am only willing to narrow it down once we see Q3 unfold, but if they never go above 5k/week with the M3 this year, S+X+M3 totals should be 250k at the least.)

But, i mean really, your comeback is "BMW has sold 100k electrified cars last year"?! Are you referring to their hybrids which can go as much as 25-30km on a charge? I know companies like to count them as EVs as well as it boosts their numbers, but I am pretty sure that kind of BS will not fly with this crowd here. Sorry. In terms of real EVs, they have celebrated manufacturing 100k i3s 4 years after launch. The Model 3 should get there by the end of Q3.

I am not hating on BMW. Great company, great cars. But even among the German brands, it seems like they are behind. If we are talking about plans, VW has signed a 50 Bn Euro deal to buy batteries over the next few years. I am somewhat skeptical about the wording (hint, they like to use "electrified" as well), but that`s ate least closer to a betting-the-company type of commitment.

Yes, i think 100k electrified vehicles is a pretty good achievement. This year, for example, BMW has sold more i3 in Norway than Model S or X. Im not arguing that they are behind Tesla in regards to total EVs sold, but the whole sentiment here ist that they are "at least 5 years" behind, and that is simply not true. The iX3 is coming next year, the Audi eTron this fall. If you read test reports of the jaguar i-pace, compared to the model X, you can imagine what established German Luxury brands will do to Tesla. And all this (in BMWs case) before counting the new and on top supply they just secured.
For VW, i believe they will be a strong contender in the mass market, but i dont believe that that they will compete with Tesla that much. They dont really have much models in that range. For Tesla, its more about what BMW, Audi/Porsche and Mercedes will do.

And for BMW being behind other german manufacturers: Until now, neither Audi nor Mercedes has a pure EV, whereas BMW had one for a long time. I dont think they are behind the other Premium Brands, they just can afford to do it at their own pace.

 

[sundaymorning]

Yes, i think 100k electrified vehicles is a pretty good achievement. This year, for example, BMW has sold more i3 in Norway than Model S or X. Im not arguing that they are behind Tesla in regards to total EVs sold, but the whole sentiment here ist that they are "at least 5 years" behind, and that is simply not true. The iX3 is coming next year, the Audi eTron this fall. If you read test reports of the jaguar i-pace, compared to the model X, you can imagine what established German Luxury brands will do to Tesla. And all this (in BMWs case) before counting the new and on top supply they just secured.
For VW, i believe they will be a strong contender in the mass market, but i dont believe that that they will compete with Tesla that much. They dont really have much models in that range. For Tesla, its more about what BMW, Audi/Porsche and Mercedes will do.

And for BMW being behind other german manufacturers: Until now, neither Audi nor Mercedes has a pure EV, whereas BMW had one for a long time. I dont think they are behind the other Premium Brands, they just can afford to do it at their own pace.

BMW has been thinking about slashing its i3 and i8 series. The cars just don’t have the tech to keep up with Tesla, so they’re wooing customers by building them in 24 karat gold instead

BMW i3 and i8 Starlight Edition shines in a 24 carat gold dust

 

[justvisiting]

BMW has been thinking about slashing its i3 and i8 series. The cars just don’t have the tech to keep up with Tesla, so they’re wooing customers by building them in 24 karat gold instead

BMW i3 and i8 Starlight Edition shines in a 24 carat gold dust

Maybe they thought about that, but i dont believe they will do that. The i8 maybe, its a great car to look at but certainly has disappointed in regards to sale.
The i3 is selling better and better in Europe and i am certain they will keep it untill 2020, if only for eco-friendly image and complying with regulations. They never intended to make money with it anyway.

 

[30seconds]

Would be a great time to see some car magazine reviews of dual motor and dual plus performance

 

[pz1975]

Elon burning cash on gold primer.

Clearly they want the car to look good in the scrap yard when the inevitable battery fire burns all the outer paint off.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

OK, looking for opinions here, not investment advice. Just wondering what your thoughts are...
TSLA hits $500 per share...

...in July?
...in August?
...in September?
...by the end of the year?
...never?

What do you think?

Dan

 

[defc0n]

Maybe they thought about that, but i dont believe they will do that. The i8 maybe, its a great car to look at but certainly has disappointed in regards to sale.
The i3 is selling better and better in Europe and i am certain they will keep it untill 2020, if only for eco-friendly image and complying with regulations. They never intended to make money with it anyway.

The i3 is a piece of *sugar*

 

[AlMc]

@Dan Detweiler : My price target ending the year is $450. That has been my target since Jan 1st. That is about as far out as I can go with the SP right now.

 

[EinSV]

Would be a great time to see some car magazine reviews of dual motor and dual plus performance

And a video/numbers from a pro driver on a track.

 

[sundaymorning]

Maybe they thought about that, but i dont believe they will do that. The i8 maybe, its a great car to look at but certainly has disappointed in regards to sale.
The i3 is selling better and better in Europe and i am certain they will keep it untill 2020, if only for eco-friendly image and complying with regulations. They never intended to make money with it anyway.

i3 sales will fall once the Model 3 arrives in Europe. Small econobox, golf type cars tend to do well over there due to parking, small streets, and gas price..

 

[Ulmo]

While driving around this morning, I got lost on Fremont Blvd and stumbled upon a parking lot with many hundreds of new Tesla cars. At first I thought it was a back way into the Fremont Delivery Center, but now I’m wondering if it is much further down the road. Since I’m going to have breakfast, I’m not intending to figure it out. I spotted a Model 3 with a 3X,XXX vin and another Model 3 with vin 46,377, and another with a similar vin that I forgot. I didn’t look at any other vins.

A security man rushed over to me, uncharacteristic of prior sightings I’ve had. Security at Tesla parking lots has dramatically increased. I think this is what it probably was supposed to be all along. I told him I had gotten lost and thought I was in the wrong spot, to which he agreed, and then told me to leave, to which I agreed and found a way back out.

This could explain what happened to the cars I used to see parked at the Fremont Delivery Center and the cars that used to be parked at the factory in back (NorthEast) where the new assembly line tent is.

Just to confirm, after satelite reconciliation and a second visit to confirm parameters, I did a rough estimate of 2^10 cars in that lot. Somewhere beteeen 9 hundred and 11 hundred plus or minus a few hundred. This is very close to the same number of cars that used to be parked in the factory northeast lot that has been replaced by the new large tent. While I assume the content type of this lot has evolved since the tent took the old parking location, the amount is analogous, and probably represents little if any change in overall factory logistics. It does portend an ability to deliver many new Model 3’s next quarter, but that was never in question, so I doubt that’s of material surprise.

 

[sub]

Maybe they thought about that, but i dont believe they will do that. The i8 maybe, its a great car to look at but certainly has disappointed in regards to sale.
The i3 is selling better and better in Europe and i am certain they will keep it untill 2020, if only for eco-friendly image and complying with regulations. They never intended to make money with it anyway.

I've owned both an i3 and now a model X, my response to your post is LOL.

How's about you? I'm assuming just another shortie that has no first hand knowledge/experience.

 

[mongo]

Didn't see the cross pipes until I magnified a bit, good catch.

So I guess my question is: are we seeing a heat pipe mechanism in that cooling ribbon rather than a glycol conduit?

Forced glycol. Length would not work well with heat pipe, also it's horizontal so no buoyancy based flow.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

first of all, it is at least MORE than 1b, as i understand it it is SEVERAL billion dollars. If we say its only 2 billion, that would be 300k by your calculation. That is three times as much as Tesla produced last year. And dont come with 500k M3 per year, plans are one thing, and as you can see reality is a totally different thing with tesla.

Hmmm, according to reuters and wsau, it's $1Billion euros:
BMW signs battery order with China's CATL
CATL to build electric car battery cell factory in Thuringia: sources

And the second link says, "BMW confirmed on Thursday that the carmaker had awarded a contract worth just over 1 billion euros"

Doesn't seem to leave much wiggle room there.

 

[avoigt]

Hmmm, according to reuters and wsau, it's $1Billion euros:
BMW signs battery order with China's CATL
CATL to build electric car battery cell factory in Thuringia: sources

And the second link says, "BMW confirmed on Thursday that the carmaker had awarded a contract worth just over 1 billion euros"

Doesn't seem to leave much wiggle room there.

Lets be accurate with this. Here is a quote from the CEO Krüger

Das deutsche Traditionsunternehmen werde von CATL Batterienim Wert von mehreren Milliarden Euro bestellen, kündigte der Vorstandsvorsitzende Harald Krüger gegenüber dem „Handelsblatt“ an.

"The German Tradition Company will order from CATL Batteries worth a few Billion Euros...."

 

[justvisiting]

I've owned both an i3 and now a model X, my response to your post is LOL.

How's about you? I'm assuming just another shortie that has no first hand knowledge/experience.

did i, in any way, compare the i3 and the model X? I dont think so. I simply stated that BMW will not discontinue the i3 because it is selling decently enough and is good for BMWs image. Work on your reading comprehension or dont answer my posts

 

[justvisiting]

Hmmm, according to reuters and wsau, it's $1Billion euros:
BMW signs battery order with China's CATL
CATL to build electric car battery cell factory in Thuringia: sources

And the second link says, "BMW confirmed on Thursday that the carmaker had awarded a contract worth just over 1 billion euros"

Doesn't seem to leave much wiggle room there.

look at avoigts post.