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My theory is that Tesla is capital constraint. If the SP is $1000 now, they can easily finance China and Euro GF in couple weeks so that their m3 will take most of the category market share in 1 year and shut the door for competition here for at least 3-5 years. Consecutively MY and pickup line would ramp up much faster and also dominate their space. Electrifying the transportation is an inevitable trend at this moment so the sooner you take the market share the less space your competition can breathe in terms of production with economic scale.
I'm too old. but keep bidding!
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dc_h
Active Member
England was blackened with coal, like nothing modern diesel would do. Look at the before thatcher London and the post 2000 London. No one here is pro diesel, but the coal fired world of pre 1945 is an order of magnitude filthier. Munich and Berlin can’t hold a smokestack to 1945 or even 1975 London. Google images of Trifalger square in 1900 and see it now. We have a lot of work to make our planet clean and healthy for 11 billion wealthy humans by the end of this century, but we’ve come farther than most people realize.
dc_h
Active Member
Up thread it was said that Tesla has ordered new paint systems from japan. It’s not know, I don’t think, if theses are repacking existing systems, supplementing or creating a new paint shop.
Appreciate if anyone has insight. This seems needed to get to 10,000.
dc_h
Active Member
Tesla said GA3 could make 5000 cars soon and GA4 is currently limited to 1000. Is there a secret plan to restart or rebuild GA2 with new automation and get to 10,000 sooner than expected? I even wondered if the Y could come out sooner and run off of GA2. Wouldn’t that be a burn?
I have a very unpopular opinion among bulls: I hate these short term weekly production targets. And I think they maybe hurting Tesla's long term goal, the alien.dreadnought.
The breakthrough in computer vision is about to bring another wave of automation to manufacture. And that should be the key to the alien dreadnought.
Some so called industry experts laughed when Elon admitted to have too much automation. They said "told you so". They said it can't be done, because many have failed in the 80s. But up till now most industrial robots are blind. And that, is about to change.
Based on his tweets, I think Dr. Karparthy's recent trip to the factory is not to manually assemble cars, but has everything to do with trying to give those robots much needed vision.
Giving robots eyes is useless, unless you can train them in eye-hand coordination. Although a daunting task, it is much much easier than self driving. The caveat is you still need lots of trial and error. Unavoidably many of those errors must be on the real production line, causing production delay.
That is why I think those short term goals are detrimental, cause when you are under lots of pressure to deliver short term numbers, you tends to scale back on those risky experiments that won't pay off immediately.
The breakthrough in computer vision is about to bring another wave of automation to manufacture. And that should be the key to the alien dreadnought.
Some so called industry experts laughed when Elon admitted to have too much automation. They said "told you so". They said it can't be done, because many have failed in the 80s. But up till now most industrial robots are blind. And that, is about to change.
Based on his tweets, I think Dr. Karparthy's recent trip to the factory is not to manually assemble cars, but has everything to do with trying to give those robots much needed vision.
Giving robots eyes is useless, unless you can train them in eye-hand coordination. Although a daunting task, it is much much easier than self driving. The caveat is you still need lots of trial and error. Unavoidably many of those errors must be on the real production line, causing production delay.
That is why I think those short term goals are detrimental, cause when you are under lots of pressure to deliver short term numbers, you tends to scale back on those risky experiments that won't pay off immediately.
My father always said don't get a car made on Friday or Monday. On Friday everyone was thinking about the weekend and on Monday they were all hung over.
I think there may sort of be something with it. My father always special ordered cars and the only two new cars I've ever had were both factory ordered (Buick and Tesla). We've always had great luck with cars. My father finally sold his 1983 Olds 98 in 1997 to someone local and he said he continued to see the car around town for years afterwards. I drove my Buick for 24 years and it still ran great when I got my Tesla.
You are right. But right now, Elon had to meet those short-term weekly production targets without alien dreadnought. This is the only way to stop the rampant "Tesla is going bankrupt" narrative from the shorts and media. There will be no long-term goal if Tesla cannot raise capital or be cashflow positive.
US ambassador in Germany met with top auto execs. Supposedly the Trump administration would be ok with a no-import-tax-for-all solution:
Daimler, VW und BMW: US-Botschaft Grenell unterbreitet unwiderstehliches Angebot
Daimler, VW und BMW: US-Botschaft Grenell unterbreitet unwiderstehliches Angebot
GA2 *could* have contributed to the production, but it seems strange that it's barely been mentioned. It wasn't mentioned in the press release, and I remember it being said in late june somewhere that there were monitors on the line, displaying the production rate of GA3 and GA4 for the workers, with no mention of GA2. (Which at the time struck me as odd.) I don't think I've seen GA2 mentioned in any recent articles/tweets, based on leaks or otherwise.
Tesla Model 3 production update: Elon Musk will be ‘almost 24/7’ at factory to help fix a few bottlenecks
“paint shop output, GA3, bringing up the new GA4, End of Line and Module Zone 4 at Giga” all need “radical improvements.”
Elon Musk on Twitter
"GA4 is great, but have to say that GA3 crew is pulling off miracles against all odds."
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...Tesla bought GA in 2016 (late) so they could not involved to much in the TM3 lines equipment. I'm sure that TGA is now fully involved. Imagine impact on the Model Y line. I assume very quick rump up with all this knowledge and experience. What a year is coming.
With 6000/wk planned for the end of August, I don't think we'll see GA2 start up this quarter. I'm guessing they'll do 5000/wk on GA3 and 1000/wk on GA4. Or maybe more like 4500/wk on GA3 and 1500/wk on GA4.
I don't think Tesla will decide to build the Model Y at Fremont, as that would require another body-in-white line and logistics would be a challenge. But if Tesla ends up really liking the GA4 line, maybe they could move the GA2 line to a different location for Model Y production. That would require ramping up GA3+GA4 to 10k/wk, though, which may be too challenging.
What I consider the most likely outcome is that they continue using GA3 + GA4 for a while, and then maybe Q4 2018 or Q1 2019, they bring GA2 online and shut down GA4, for a total production on GA2 + GA3 of 10k/wk. Then they could take down the tent and reuse the GA4 equipment for Model Y/Semi/Roadster production in a different location.
An additional advantage is that now Tesla can just continue filling domestic orders for the high-margin versions that their lines currently produce. They could probably continue with that for quite some time, basically until they feel they can no longer let the day 1 reservers of the 35k$ M3 wait. And even after they start with the lower-margin variants, being able to schedule production batches of a larger number of identical vehicles must simplify the logistics.
Here in Munich BMW's DriveNow (which includes their i3) is working pretty well. You get billed if you park outside the designated zones (one of which is the airport).
...Tesla bought GA in 2016 (late) so they could not involved to much in the TM3 lines equipment. I'm sure that TGA is now fully involved. Imagine impact on the Model Y line. I assume very quick rump up with all this knowledge and experience. What a year is coming.
Correct, they (Grohmann) were not much involved with the original TM3 lines. However, they are the ones who worked on the inoperative GF1 module stage to get it working, and developed the replacement machines for that and the other section that was air freighted in. So they became very familiar with the cell/ module secret abuse, and are likely involved in all the automation going forward.
ValueAnalyst
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Good note by Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdry at a time when expectations around Model 3 production sustainability are low.
That Tripp was paid by Linette Lopez is pretty potent ammunition, if true. Now to find out how, when, and which short sellers touched these trade secrets given to Linette Lopez...
Elon Musk on Twitter
Elon Musk on Twitter
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