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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Given the above great discussion, when do people expect 10,000 per week Model 3's?

How long does it take to replicate paint shop and BIW? Could Tesla have already started to do so?


A few months ago my projections were 5k sustainable by mid August. Turned out to be quite conservative I think.

At this time I thought 10k/ sustainable would be around February-March 2019.

Now I think, it will be around end of January sustainable, and maybe 10k burst rate by end of the year.
 
Given the above great discussion, when do people expect 10,000 per week Model 3's?
By end of this year. That provides sufficient lead time for evaluation and additional equipment (assuming 90 day lead times)

How long does it take to replicate paint shop and BIW? Could Tesla have already started to do so?
I think the previous paint expansion was planned to be sufficient, environmental sign off may be the constraint.
Body assembly is equipment intensive. If they need that added on, space may be the larger issue. With room, still under 6 months.
 
Volkswagen readies ‘zero-emission’ car-share service for 2019 launch

Volkswagen said it is launching a “zero-emission” car-sharing service called WE next year, a move that could accelerate its battery-powered car production and take on the likes of Uber and Didi in the mobility space.

The VW brand, which makes up about half of revenue for the Volkswagen Group, said it plans to launch the WE service in Germany next year, with an international rollout to begin as early as 2020 “in major cities in Europe, North America and Asia.”

“Our vehicle-on-demand fleets will consist entirely of electric cars, and will therefore provide zero-emission, sustainable mobility,” said Jürgen Stackmann, VW brand boardmember overseeing sales. VW’s first long-range electric car, the ID Neo, will be produced in Zwickau and is scheduled for series production late next year.

[...]


This week, PSA and Renault each said they would soon launch electric car-sharing services in Paris. In March, BMW and Mercedes announced they would team up on all mobility services to ensure they had enough scale to compete.
Finally, a move that actually makes sense. It allows VW to scale up their EV production slowly, which helps them avoid cannibalizing their own ICE sales until they are ready to produce compelling EVs profitably and in large numbers. It keeps their brand relevant, gives them real-world feedback, and most importantly, lets them get away with higher unit costs thanks to much higher utilization rates. Not to mention, break into a new market that already threatens their future revenues. The lack of a supercharging network for inter-city driving is also not crucial for this application, since this is a city-wide service (Berlin, for starters).

All in all, this buys them some more time and helps them smooth the transition to an EV-only company (far in the future).
San Diego had an electric-only car sharing service using Smart EDs for a few years. People who used it liked it a lot. It went broke. It also caused lots of problems; people would park the cars in weird places, hog the few chargers that existed at the time, park in limited-time spaces which then got ticketed or towed before the service could pick them up and move them, stuff like that. Unless the cars are fully autonomous, I'm not aware of any real successes in this market. (Note: there are also some car sharing schemes that are much more limited in where you're allowed to pick up and drop off. I don't know whether they are successful or not.)
 
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San Diego had an electric-only car sharing service using Smart EDs for a few years. People who used it liked it a lot. It went broke. It also caused lots of problems; people would park the cars in weird places, hog the few chargers that existed at the time, park in limited-time spaces which then got ticketed or towed before the service could pick them up and move them, stuff like that. Unless the cars are fully autonomous, I'm not aware of any real successes in this market. (Note: there are also some car sharing schemes that are much more limited in where you're allowed to pick up and drop off. I don't know whether they are successful or not.)

Well, this is Germany. I would venture to guess that compliance with the rules in Berlin (i.e., park in designated places only, don't hog charging-capable parking spots, etc.) will be higher than in San Diego. Another thing is that this will be a manufacturer-run service. Higher scale, lower costs (in part because they are internal costs). Finally, that other such initiatives bombed (or most -- I don't know enough about this space) doesn't mean it cannot be made to work, even before full autonomy arrives. It sounds like a reasonable play to me; I wouldn't write it off just yet.
 
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This indicates that some sections are going to face some major management changes. :-( (And I'm thinking the supplier of white seat material is gonna be replaced.)

I hope it's simply the sections which did a bad job who get their management changes, and not the sections where the management said the equivalent of "There is no way in hell we can do this; we need another line because this is how long it takes for paint to dry". Because it's pointless to fire people for not doing the impossible.
 
Well, this is Germany. I would venture to guess that compliance with the rules in Berlin (i.e., park in designated places only, don't hog charging-capable parking spots, etc.) will be higher than in San Diego. Another thing is that this will be a manufacturer-run service. Higher scale, lower costs (in part because they are internal costs). Finally, that other such initiatives bombed (or most -- I don't know enough about this space) doesn't mean it cannot be made to work, even before full autonomy arrives. It sounds like a reasonable play to me; I wouldn't write it off just yet.
Oh, I wasn't writing it off. There's this guy who seems to keep making money doing things everyone else says can't be done... landing rocket boosters, starting new car companies, etc. I'm sure he could do it. Maybe other people can too. ;-)
 
By end of this year. That provides sufficient lead time for evaluation and additional equipment (assuming 90 day lead times)
I think the previous paint expansion was planned to be sufficient, environmental sign off may be the constraint.
Planned to be sufficient is not the same as sufficient, as you know. :-(

I'm quite sure environmental sign off is not a constraint; Tesla said they could make 500K/year with their permit based on their current VOC emissions rates (which are way lower than the old NUMMI emissions rates). Lowering VOC emissions isn't rocket science, either.

Whether the bottlenecks on the speed of the paint line are all silly (sensor needs redesign) or whether some are insoluble (paint needs time to dry) is the open question.

Body assembly is equipment intensive. If they need that added on, space may be the larger issue. With room, still under 6 months.
Agreed that this could be built in 6 months if they start now; honestly, 4 months, so they have a little time to decide. Might end up being under another Sprung structure, since buildings are slow to build!
 
Planned to be sufficient is not the same as sufficient, as you know. :-(

I'm quite sure environmental sign off is not a constraint; Tesla said they could make 500K/year with their permit based on their current VOC emissions rates (which are way lower than the old NUMMI emissions rates). Lowering VOC emissions isn't rocket science, either.

Whether the bottlenecks on the speed of the paint line are all silly (sensor needs redesign) or whether some are insoluble (paint needs time to dry) is the open question.


Agreed that this could be built in 6 months if they start now; honestly, 4 months, so they have a little time to decide. Might end up being under another Sprung structure, since buildings are slow to build!

My thought is that dry/cure time of paint is such a known physics based process along with application speed that the paint line capacity is one of the most predictable operations.

(And I'm thinking the supplier of white seat material is gonna be replaced.)
Do we know if it is seat material versus the other white trim pieces?
 
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I wish whoever edits the headlines would do a better job.
Or are they really dumb enough not to know the difference between "by July" and "by the end of July"?

I've been wondering... The Q2 deliveries letter said "6k by the end of NEXT month". It was released on July 2nd. So I actually think we're looking at end of August.
 
I wish whoever edits the headlines would do a better job.
Or are they really dumb enough not to know the difference between "by July" and "by the end of July"?

I've been wondering... The Q2 deliveries letter said "6k by the end of NEXT month". It was released on July 2nd. So I actually think we're looking at end of August.

Check the date on the article. It's from April 17th, 2018. This is about an earlier letter Musk sent to employees.

The original Jalopnik article
 
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The point of the article was actually to remove any ammo from bears if he only reported a burst rate extrapolated from a few days equivalent to 5k/wk. Which it seems like they did. They reported a factory gated 5k/wk which includes partially finished cars not purely cars that came off the line. I still believe they hit 714 cars in 24 hours which would allow them to report an equivalent weekly production burst rate of 5k/wk. however based on the extensive resources they diverted to achieve that it is clearly not a sustained rate as yet. Which was the point of my article. Any investor whether long or short needs to calculate revenues based on a sustained rate which lags the burst rate by about 2 months as evidenced by the actual Q2 production average.

OMG, they did not gate ‘partially finished’ cars. Indeed, they have explained quite specifically how their gating process works. They didn’t count cars for the week any different than the previous 6 years of weeks.

And you have zero evidence the 5k is not a sustained or sustainable rate.

I remain thankful for your added bear fodder.
 
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