General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[neroden]

Exactly. "In fairness to the journalists they’ve added Tesla response too". If these journalists were fair or objective, they would have elaborated the facts as you did. Not say "Tesla argues" These facts are widely available and understood. But add those few extra words would have undercut their bogus implication that Tesla is operating Fremont far less efficiently than NUMMI.

To be clear, I am totally OK with the Bloomberg article. It's tilted but it's *honest* and it includes Tesla's responses and a lot of actual facts.

This is classic British-style media: the writer clearly has a well-defined opinion and a clear bias, but is scruplous about the facts and does research to get multiple sources. I got useful information out of it (the fully automated seat assembly line).

This is a big contrast from the completely dishonest garbage at Business Insider and CNBC which contains one-sided claims with *none* of the counterarguments or background evidence, and routinely leaves out easy-to-find facts. (So easy to find that the Roadshow CNET article about the brake/roll test which found the facts which debunked one of Lopez's article immediately, with barely any work at all.)

 

[avoigt]

Paint shop, to be precise.

ElonFanaticS75D[S] 3 Punkte vor 2 Stunden*

She is in the north paint shop. There is a south paint shop as well. Don’t know if this number is for both?

 

[neroden]

Paint shop, to be precise.

Oh, thank you! That's excellent -- paint shop is comfortable at 7000/week. (2000 S/X, 5000 Model 3). It has to go up in order to expand further, of course.

 

[neroden]

I'm not sure where motor assembly is done, but I believe the seat shop was moved somewhere else in the Bay Area.

Seat shop is at Page Avenue.

 

[Zaxxon]

‘The Last Bet-the-Company Situation’: Q&A With Elon Musk

 

[jelloslug]

When Tesla bought the NUMMI factory there was a metal stamping press already there. Though you are correct NUMMI was mostly just final assembly and most of the parts came from somewhere else.

Tesla has been moving sub-assembly work out of the main factory. Battery packs used to be made at Fremont, but are now done at the GF, even the S/X packs. I'm not sure where motor assembly is done, but I believe the seat shop was moved somewhere else in the Bay Area.

I was thinking Tesla could build some Model Ys in Fremont. By the time the Model Y is ready for production, it's likely their Chinese and possibly their European factories will be up and running. If they build all car models in each factory, that reduces the demand on the Fremont factory and they can scale back some Fremont production of existing cars to make room for North American Model Y manufacturing.

On the other hand if some foreign manufacturers close factories in North America due to the trade war, Tesla might be able to pick up those recently abandoned factories on the cheap with a local workforce ready to go.

As far as capital raise goes, Tesla could possibly raise money in 2019 by selling more stock. Especially if it goes up later this year.

"Tesla purchased over $17 million of manufacturing equipment and spare parts in 2011, at significant discounts compared to new equipment. Tesla bought $50 million worth of Schuler SMG hydraulic stamping press lines used from Detroit for $6 million, including shipping costs."

 

[Ovulation]

Someone is watching us....



Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk

Interesting read

2:33 AM - 13 Jul 2018

jesselivenomore's well deserved day of fame!

Great post I didn't see that, thanks.

Of course, I don't agree with him that short-sellers play an important part in the stock market, I would rather lie to my mother that I play the piano in a brothel than confessing that I'm a Wallstreet short-seller.

 

[HG Wells]

Great post I didn't see that, thanks.

Of course, I don't agree with him that short-sellers play an important part in the stock market, I would rather lie to my mother that I play the piano in a brothel than confessing that I'm a Wallstreet short-seller.

The fringe benefits of playing a piano in a brothel are very nice.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

The fringe benefits of playing a piano in a brothel are very nice.

Nah, it's like being married to a chef. After working all day the husband gets McDonalds! LOL!

Dan

 

[gtrplyr1]

Tesla long here .... have some things that I would love to hear people opine about.

1) Is the 3rd production line at Fremont going to remain in it's current form ? I don't like to refer to it as a "tent" as I feel that is very misleading however I'm curious if there are larger plans to expand the building.

2) Any rumblings regarding how the automation is coming along ? I know Elon stated that initially they used too much and should have scaled it in ... are they now scaling the automation? This is very important to me as I feel a huge part of Tesla's success is tied into how they are revolutionizing the way a car is produced and in some ways that's equally if not more important than what they are producing in terms of revenue and margins.

3) As someone who has $1k down on a model 3 I'd like a little more clarity on why it was opened up for anyone to purchase ? Since I'm waiting for the regular range I want to know that my money will allow me quicker access to one when they are finally in production. I've heard nothing ... I think an email with a clear explanation of what my $1k gets me is in order.

4) Although I'm not really in the market for the current version (more than I want to spend ... I'm cheap) I don't feel as if everyone is waiting for the $35k version either .... I plan on spending the $5k to upgrade the interior and get the sunroof and other premium features ... I'll also pop for the $5k for driver assist so I'm up to $46 with delivery ... probably $47 because I don't want black, but that's about my limit. It seems as many sites are stating that most simply want the base $35k version which I don't think is true, especially if you consider that people will still get the partial rebate into mid '19. Also what are your thought on what gets Tesla more margin ... do they make more on the battery/range upgrade at 9K or the premium package at 5k? For instance, Apple made ridiculous margins on upgraded RAM .... is the extended range Tesla's upgraded RAM ?

In any case, I'd rather hear about these subjects instead of the mysterious "short burn" nonsense that I wish had never been started.

Cheers to the longs.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Tesla long here .... have some things that I would love to hear people opine about.

1) Is the 3rd production line at Fremont going to remain in it's current form ? I don't like to refer to it as a "tent" as I feel that is very misleading however I'm curious if there are larger plans to expand the building.

2) Any rumblings regarding how the automation is coming along ? I know Elon stated that initially they used too much and should have scaled it in ... are they now scaling the automation? This is very important to me as I feel a huge part of Tesla's success is tied into how they are revolutionizing the way a car is produced and in some ways that's equally if not more important than what they are producing in terms of revenue and margins.

3) As someone who has $1k down on a model 3 I'd like a little more clarity on why it was opened up for anyone to purchase ? Since I'm waiting for the regular range I want to know that my money will allow me quicker access to one when they are finally in production. I've heard nothing ... I think an email with a clear explanation of what my $1k gets me is in order.

4) Although I'm not really in the market for the current version (more than I want to spend ... I'm cheap) I don't feel as if everyone is waiting for the $35k version either .... I plan on spending the $5k to upgrade the interior and get the sunroof and other premium features ... I'll also pop for the $5k for driver assist so I'm up to $46 with delivery ... probably $47 because I don't want black, but that's about my limit. It seems as many sites are stating that most simply want the base $35k version which I don't think is true, especially if you consider that people will still get the partial rebate into mid '19. Also what are your thought on what gets Tesla more margin ... do they make more on the battery/range upgrade at 9K or the premium package at 5k? For instance, Apple made ridiculous margins on upgraded RAM .... is the extended range Tesla's upgraded RAM ?

In any case, I'd rather hear about these subjects instead of the mysterious "short burn" nonsense that I wish had never been started.

Cheers to the longs.

on #3 - my understanding is, that you still have the advantage over anyone who wants the same basic config (battery + drive combo) as you do. So once reservations for the std battery open, you'll be front of the line.

 

[avoigt]

Tesla long here .... have some things that I would love to hear people opine about.

1) Is the 3rd production line at Fremont going to remain in it's current form ? I don't like to refer to it as a "tent" as I feel that is very misleading however I'm curious if there are larger plans to expand the building.

2) Any rumblings regarding how the automation is coming along ? I know Elon stated that initially they used too much and should have scaled it in ... are they now scaling the automation? This is very important to me as I feel a huge part of Tesla's success is tied into how they are revolutionizing the way a car is produced and in some ways that's equally if not more important than what they are producing in terms of revenue and margins.

3) As someone who has $1k down on a model 3 I'd like a little more clarity on why it was opened up for anyone to purchase ? Since I'm waiting for the regular range I want to know that my money will allow me quicker access to one when they are finally in production. I've heard nothing ... I think an email with a clear explanation of what my $1k gets me is in order.

4) Although I'm not really in the market for the current version (more than I want to spend ... I'm cheap) I don't feel as if everyone is waiting for the $35k version either .... I plan on spending the $5k to upgrade the interior and get the sunroof and other premium features ... I'll also pop for the $5k for driver assist so I'm up to $46 with delivery ... probably $47 because I don't want black, but that's about my limit. It seems as many sites are stating that most simply want the base $35k version which I don't think is true, especially if you consider that people will still get the partial rebate into mid '19. Also what are your thought on what gets Tesla more margin ... do they make more on the battery/range upgrade at 9K or the premium package at 5k? For instance, Apple made ridiculous margins on upgraded RAM .... is the extended range Tesla's upgraded RAM ?

In any case, I'd rather hear about these subjects instead of the mysterious "short burn" nonsense that I wish had never been started.

Cheers to the longs.

#1 We don't know. My guess is, it works now and they will keep it up an running unless they feel its redundant or effort spend better on another line.

#2 He admitted they did some stupid stuff like the conveyer belt structure or the fluffer Robot but never said they go away from high automation. They definitely will continue very high automation. The media is spreading FUD around automation. Just disregard.

#3 The thumb rule is (almost): the more you spend the quicker your car will be delivered. Assuming you are in the US. Right now they go for margin therefore Elon just promoted today to drive the 3P before you decide. I bet once driven that car it will be very hard to go back to AWD or RWD.

 

[22522]

on #3 - my understanding is, that you still have the advantage over anyone who wants the same basic config (battery + drive combo) as you do. So once reservations for the std battery open, you'll be front of the line.

If you move quickly. The last time you get precedence is when your invite arrives. Precedence then shifts to time order is placed.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Does anyone know how much CapEx Tesla will need to spend for its paint shop to increase weekly Model 3 production rate to 10,000?

 

[ggr]

When Tesla bought the NUMMI factory there was a metal stamping press already there. Though you are correct NUMMI was mostly just final assembly and most of the parts came from somewhere else.

When the factory went into production, there was a line of four stamping presses. I'm not sure how many were already there, but at least the biggest one was bought second-hand from a factory in Michigan and moved.

 

[22522]

Tesla long here .... have some things that I would love to hear people opine about.

1) Is the 3rd production line at Fremont going to remain in it's current form ? I don't like to refer to it as a "tent" as I feel that is very misleading however I'm curious if there are larger plans to expand the building.

2) Any rumblings regarding how the automation is coming along ? I know Elon stated that initially they used too much and should have scaled it in ... are they now scaling the automation? This is very important to me as I feel a huge part of Tesla's success is tied into how they are revolutionizing the way a car is produced and in some ways that's equally if not more important than what they are producing in terms of revenue and margins.

3) As someone who has $1k down on a model 3 I'd like a little more clarity on why it was opened up for anyone to purchase ? Since I'm waiting for the regular range I want to know that my money will allow me quicker access to one when they are finally in production. I've heard nothing ... I think an email with a clear explanation of what my $1k gets me is in order.

4) Although I'm not really in the market for the current version (more than I want to spend ... I'm cheap) I don't feel as if everyone is waiting for the $35k version either .... I plan on spending the $5k to upgrade the interior and get the sunroof and other premium features ... I'll also pop for the $5k for driver assist so I'm up to $46 with delivery ... probably $47 because I don't want black, but that's about my limit. It seems as many sites are stating that most simply want the base $35k version which I don't think is true, especially if you consider that people will still get the partial rebate into mid '19. Also what are your thought on what gets Tesla more margin ... do they make more on the battery/range upgrade at 9K or the premium package at 5k? For instance, Apple made ridiculous margins on upgraded RAM .... is the extended range Tesla's upgraded RAM ?

In any case, I'd rather hear about these subjects instead of the mysterious "short burn" nonsense that I wish had never been started.

Cheers to the longs.

Opinion on how it should work:
2) The car was naively designed for assembly. Assembly is the reduction of 6 degrees of freedom to 1. If you want that to be hard you make it like threading a needle in that all degrees of freedom are eliminated instantly in time. . If you want assembly to be easy you reduce degrees of freedom gradually by using funnels and chamfers (and dog points on bolts), or you use alignment surfaces like tables and rip fences. When you put a book on a table gravity makes it coplaner immediately, then you can slide it against a T-Square or fence to drop out 2 more degrees of freedom. Then into a corner...

They need to apply this thinking of progressive elimination of degrees of freedom and self fixturing to every part of the model Y design to see the kind of automation Elon is talking about. They have not exhibited that kind of design discipline yet.

In first principles, it could be written d (DOF)/dt wants to be gradual with a funnel, or sequential where you operate on one degree of freedom at a time, like putting a book on a table.

Note: Motion in X, Y and Z and rotation about X, Y and Z in Cartesian coordinates add up to 6 degrees of freedom. When two parts are assembled they cannot move with respect to each other...

 

[Bobfitz1]

To be clear, I am totally OK with the Bloomberg article. It's tilted but it's *honest* and it includes Tesla's responses and a lot of actual facts.

This is classic British-style media: the writer clearly has a well-defined opinion and a clear bias, but is scruplous about the facts and does research to get multiple sources. I got useful information out of it (the fully automated seat assembly line).

This is a big contrast from the completely dishonest garbage at Business Insider and CNBC which contains one-sided claims with *none* of the counterarguments or background evidence, and routinely leaves out easy-to-find facts. (So easy to find that the Roadshow CNET article about the brake/roll test which found the facts which debunked one of Lopez's article immediately, with barely any work at all.)

Point taken. Clearly the article was far less dishonest than BI, CNBC and some others. Not clear on how you are defining *honest*.
A case can be made that if a journalist is aware of facts in the record that disproves a negative point they are making (or strongly infer) and they choose to omit those facts, they cannot be said to be practicing honest journalism. Someone who regularly cheats others for modest amounts can't be said to be honest just because their dishonesty doesn't nearly compare to that of a Madoff.

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla long here .... have some things that I would love to hear people opine about.

1) Is the 3rd production line at Fremont going to remain in it's current form ? I don't like to refer to it as a "tent" as I feel that is very misleading however I'm curious if there are larger plans to expand the building.

2) Any rumblings regarding how the automation is coming along ? I know Elon stated that initially they used too much and should have scaled it in ... are they now scaling the automation? This is very important to me as I feel a huge part of Tesla's success is tied into how they are revolutionizing the way a car is produced and in some ways that's equally if not more important than what they are producing in terms of revenue and margins.

3) As someone who has $1k down on a model 3 I'd like a little more clarity on why it was opened up for anyone to purchase ? Since I'm waiting for the regular range I want to know that my money will allow me quicker access to one when they are finally in production. I've heard nothing ... I think an email with a clear explanation of what my $1k gets me is in order.

4) Although I'm not really in the market for the current version (more than I want to spend ... I'm cheap) I don't feel as if everyone is waiting for the $35k version either .... I plan on spending the $5k to upgrade the interior and get the sunroof and other premium features ... I'll also pop for the $5k for driver assist so I'm up to $46 with delivery ... probably $47 because I don't want black, but that's about my limit. It seems as many sites are stating that most simply want the base $35k version which I don't think is true, especially if you consider that people will still get the partial rebate into mid '19. Also what are your thought on what gets Tesla more margin ... do they make more on the battery/range upgrade at 9K or the premium package at 5k? For instance, Apple made ridiculous margins on upgraded RAM .... is the extended range Tesla's upgraded RAM ?

In any case, I'd rather hear about these subjects instead of the mysterious "short burn" nonsense that I wish had never been started.

Cheers to the longs.

on #3 - my understanding is, that you still have the advantage over anyone who wants the same basic config (battery + drive combo) as you do. So once reservations for the std battery open, you'll be front of the line.

mrdoubleb, that's how it was explained to me by a Tesla sales agent in Westmont, Illinois earlier this week. The proviso is to not ask for a refund on your $1000 reservation, otherwise your place in the queue will be cancelled. When actually ordering you'll be asked for an additional deposit of $2500 for a total of $3500. Orders placed by those without previous $1000 reservations will require only a $2500 deposit.

That agent also answered that the 200,000th American delivery of a Tesla car was made earlier this month and described the calendar on how this would affect tax credits. This was before such information was officially announced on the Tesla website shortly afterward.

 

[electracity]

This is very important to me as I feel a huge part of Tesla's success is tied into how they are revolutionizing the way a car is produced and in some ways that's equally if not more important than what they are producing in terms of revenue and margins.

This is a continuing false assumption as far as building the glider in Fremont. They are not more skilled in building the "ice part" of the car, they are significantly less skilled than existing traditional auto manufacturers. THis is not an area of competitive advantage for Tesla, it's a weakness from being the new company. But Tesla doesn't need to be strong in this area, they just need to be competent.

The gigafactory portion of the the car, however, is where they have a large competitive advantage. The pack design with the integrated electronics is brilliant and state of the art. Even if the pack building process is currently more labor intensive than originally designed Tesla is still likely far ahead of competitors.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Tesla long here .... have some things that I would love to hear people opine about.

3) As someone who has $1k down on a model 3 I'd like a little more clarity on why it was opened up for anyone to purchase ? Since I'm waiting for the regular range I want to know that my money will allow me quicker access to one when they are finally in production. I've heard nothing ... I think an email with a clear explanation of what my $1k gets me is in order.

I'll take a shot at 3. Why ordering of AWD and P were opened up to anyone has been well covered in TMC.
I don't know that anyone thinks in hindsight that the original M3 reservation system was well conceived when it could have been foreseen that they would want to prioritize AWD and P when they could be made for financial reasons. Perhaps that was due to the same over optimism as to how quick and smooth the M3 ramp would be.

When people made their 1K reservation deposits they were not asked ahead of time if they wanted a SR, LR , AWD or P. That wasn't possible at the time. I really hope that when Tesla makes the $35K standard available, they will place new reservations at the end of the existing reservation queue. Then invite groups of reservation holders to order based on place on line. Those who choose not to order when their turn comes either request a refund or go to end of the queue. I view what's happened as Tesla having created individual queues for AWD and P. If one customer orders their P today and I place my order a month from now, then the customer who ordered earlier than I did should have their car built and delivered before mine. Same should be the case for those ordering AWD, except Tesla has reserved the right (and are exercising it) to further prioritize fulfilling P orders over AWD ones. That AWD orders have lower priority than P orders shouldn't change servicing AWD orders in the order they were placed. It seems clear that in order to reach positive earnings this year, they recognized that not creating individual queues for AWD and P, instead moving through the original reservation queue allowing people to choose among LR, AWD and P as they wish would fail to get Tesla on sound financial footing this year.