Last week I drove on the German Autobahn for the first time in my life (with our Model S). After 8PM, when there is not a lot of traffic anymore, it’s just Porsches and other high-end German cars flashing by on the left lane (and sometimes even the middle lane). It is quite an experience the first time you experience this. It also made it clear to me that an electric car that can’t do this can’t be sold in Germany.
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shlokavica22
Member
Great video. It deserves Like, Love and Informative at the same time. Thanks a lot!
It's the whole of the corporate world. I can't blame Tesla for it, they're dealing with a world where everyone's doing it and they have to do it to keep up.
We really should reinstate the Eisenhower-era 92% top marginal tax rate (on pay over, say, $2 million/year) to create a disincentive for these multi-milion-dollar salaries, though.
2 other German states (Bundesländer) are starting to attract Tesla to build the GF on their ground.
Its now Saarland, Rheinland-Pfalz, Nordrhein-Westfalen and Baden Würtemberg. I guess this is now a play about incentives and maybe tax relief.
That will increase the likelihood that the GF goes to Germany instead Netherlands.
Tesla: Auch BaWü & NRW wollen Elektroauto-Fabrik - ecomento.de
Its now Saarland, Rheinland-Pfalz, Nordrhein-Westfalen and Baden Würtemberg. I guess this is now a play about incentives and maybe tax relief.
That will increase the likelihood that the GF goes to Germany instead Netherlands.
Tesla: Auch BaWü & NRW wollen Elektroauto-Fabrik - ecomento.de
Not all of us are speed junkies. My Volkswagen ICE car goes 160km/h max (100 MPH) and it sells just fine.
Of course, expensive cars should be able to go a little faster. And EVs are expensive, generally speaking. But still, Renault Zoe is an EV, max speed is 135km/h (85 MPH), and it sells okay-ish in Germany.
mutle
Member
I used to be when I still had an ICE car (and motorcycle before that). I once drove for 2 hours with an average of 180-200km/h (and no adaptive cruise control) and afterwards I felt tired and mentally drained for a whole day. Since switching to a low-range EV I usually drive between 90-120km/h and feel much more rested even after many hours of driving. When I get the Model 3 I don't think I will drive it fast for long distances (130-150 seems to be the ideal speed when super charging) and only go over 200 for less than 30 minutes at a time.
That pretty much supports the idea that a 300 mile range for a car, with Supercharging during the meal, is about right. If you weren't in quite as much of a hurry or you had lower speed limits locally, a 240 mile range would be enough.
Well, working backwards from 245 kW, that's 61 kWh in 15 minutes. Take charging losses of 8%, that's 56 kWh. For that to be 80%, we're talking 70 kWh usable capacity in the pack. They can limit the usable capacity in the pack to 70 kWh out of a 95 kWh battery and achieve it. It's still 2.6C charging, but about 26% buffer in the pack.
Not saying this is how they are doing it, just saying this is how they can do it.
We really don't know what Porsche means when they talk about 310 miles of range. They announced this back in Sept, 2015, so certainly it wasn't likely to be WLTP range. Most likely this is NEDC range given its Europe and the 2015 timing. So a straight conversion would mean about 220 miles of EPA range. Well, as long as the Taycan isn't as inefficient as the Audi E-tron, 70 kWh can deliver 220 miles of range.
Note that according to C&D article here:
We Drive a Mission E Concept: A Porsche EV in the Making | News | Car and Driver
600 hp = 448 kW. With a 95 kWh pack, that' s 4.7C discharge which is well within norms.
The Mission-E Cross Turismo Concept car right now weighs 5,720 pounds and they are targeting a curb weight of 4,400 lbs. And the concept car has about 500 hp, not the eventual 600 hp. My conjecture is that they are currently using a NMC 111 pack that is also a bit smaller in size than the eventual 95 kWh production pack.
With 270 Wh/kg cells, Porsche is likely using NMC 811 cells in the production Taycan. That has a lot of cell degradation thus far. They might be able to sort that out in time for late 2019/early 2020. The Tesla semi is likely to use some variant of this cell chemistry also in that time period. With a large buffer, Porsche can hide the cell degradation for quite some time, much like GM's engineering choice with the Volt pack if the cell degradation is still high when the time comes.
What is interesting to note is that the base starting price car... roughly $85,000 will have the smaller 80 kWh pack. With about 26% buffer, that would have about 60 kWh of usable capacity and about 300 kW or 400 hp of power. That also means peak charging is about 208 kW. If the 310 mile range figure is NEDC, then the base model of the Taycan has somewhere around 185 miles of EPA range. And this is the model that competes against the Tesla Model 3 Performance - roughly the same pack size, roughly the same power output, roughly in the same price range. It charges almost twice as fast, but has about 40% less range. But the 0-60 time of the base car is likely closer to the Model 3 LR AWD as it is likely much heavier.
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What will be the impact of the new Supercharging policy for Model 3 Performance uptake? My guess is that there will be a material change since the notion of Free Supercharging has been a major emotional attraction for many people with S and X. Logical? Of course not, but Free is a major turnon.
This morning when my family learned about the grandfather for orders placed before today I was applauded for my vision and foresight. That I hadn't a clue that this was coming and it would not have changed my decision is irrelevant. Most of us early adopters are outliers anyway.
I suspect the number of conversions from AWD to Performance will be quite large, enough to raise ASP materially in Q3 and beyond. I'd love to be able to guess how much, but my crystal ball is quite cloudy this morning.
Ideas?
This morning when my family learned about the grandfather for orders placed before today I was applauded for my vision and foresight. That I hadn't a clue that this was coming and it would not have changed my decision is irrelevant. Most of us early adopters are outliers anyway.
I suspect the number of conversions from AWD to Performance will be quite large, enough to raise ASP materially in Q3 and beyond. I'd love to be able to guess how much, but my crystal ball is quite cloudy this morning.
Ideas?
jelloslug
Active Member
Nobody knows what the starting price is going to be. That $85k number was a speculation made by Car Magazine last year.
News from Germany:
The Kabinett (Administration) has decided to cut the 1% tax for company EV & plug in cars by 50% down to .5% of list price.
Company cars are huge in Germany and its been an indirect subvention of the car industry since many years. Naturally it has been invented for sales and manager positions who need to drive longer distances p.a.. Having said that these people are looking for EVs with long range. Pure EVs with long range that you can buy today in Germany boil down to Tesla only but the law includes Plug in Hybrids too.
Thats a welcome step in the right direction to encourage more people buying an electric or hybrid vehicle although in my taste to small and too late. Its decided for 2019 - 2021.
This law still needs to be approved by the second chamber in Germany. So its not yet decided.
Branchenexperten kritisieren Steuervorteil für E-Dienstwagen
P.S. lets see what they put into the law to try keeping Tesla out .....
The Kabinett (Administration) has decided to cut the 1% tax for company EV & plug in cars by 50% down to .5% of list price.
Company cars are huge in Germany and its been an indirect subvention of the car industry since many years. Naturally it has been invented for sales and manager positions who need to drive longer distances p.a.. Having said that these people are looking for EVs with long range. Pure EVs with long range that you can buy today in Germany boil down to Tesla only but the law includes Plug in Hybrids too.
Thats a welcome step in the right direction to encourage more people buying an electric or hybrid vehicle although in my taste to small and too late. Its decided for 2019 - 2021.
This law still needs to be approved by the second chamber in Germany. So its not yet decided.
Branchenexperten kritisieren Steuervorteil für E-Dienstwagen
P.S. lets see what they put into the law to try keeping Tesla out .....
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Everybody everywhere has to pay competitive salaries to attract workers.
92% marginal tax rate is the "please leave America" plan.
The ability of corporations to move abroad with their employees, to Singapore,Taiwan,Dubai,Ireland or wherever is much greater than the Eisenhower era.
You can stay connected to American culture with internet satellite etc.
Where you actually live and work becoming less important.
So, you're suggesting that the US had a major brain drain in the 1950s. (Also the 1930s, 1940s, and 1960s.)
That doesn't pass the laugh test. Wake up and smell history.
The 92% top rate only ever applied to the most exorbitantly absurdly rich people -- 0.1%ers. They don't make decisions about where to live based on taxes, frankly.
Not in the trade regime which is emerging. If you want to sell in the US, you locate in the US or you pay tariffs. Noticed how that works?
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I should explain what the results of the Eisenhower-era tax rates were.
(1) Execs took perks rather than cash. So they had a lot of cushy non-taxable perks. This is fine with me; making the exec more comfortable makes him more productive, hopefully. Giving him a pile of cash does not encourage him to keep working.
(2) Corporations (who also had a high top tax rate) reinvested heavily in R&D, since there was a huge deduction from profits for R&D costs. This is certainly a good idea.
(3) Execs took pensions, which were effectively tax-deferred. After the laws against "top-heavy" pension plans came in, this meant everyone else in the company got pensions too... good outcome
(4) Execs took pay spread out over many years, rather than lump sum signing bonuses of huge amounts up front, to keep under the top bracket.
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ok, a newbie question about stocks..maybe in wrong thread my apologies if it is... mods delete as you see fit
been trying to figure out how stock market works and Tesla has been "interesting" to watch over the years (a recent owner of a Model 3) and the short interest is intriguing..and I don't fully get. this comment from another thread had me scratching my head..
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
the comment reads
sorry for such I am sure a straight forward question...
ignore or reply as you see fit..
jb
been trying to figure out how stock market works and Tesla has been "interesting" to watch over the years (a recent owner of a Model 3) and the short interest is intriguing..and I don't fully get. this comment from another thread had me scratching my head..
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
the comment reads
I have just shorted 2 TSLA OCT 125 PUTs and shorted another TSLA OCT 130 PUT. Please pray for me, that the stock doesnt fall below 150, until October. Please.
it is "greek" to me..does it mean he hopes stock drops to ~$125 but not before october? what happens if it goes to say $500 instead?sorry for such I am sure a straight forward question...
ignore or reply as you see fit..
jb
Key word is "marginal". Progressive taxation should operate like a non-linear spring. You shouldnt feel the pain until you are already very successful and planted. Inertia is a real thing, even on social networks! The relocation threat has never proven out. Apple, Facebook , Google are not all moving to Ireland.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I am suggesting the opposite.
That we live in a different world from the 1950's.
That is much easier to move today without changing ones lifestyle.
Anti trade war to Fortress America ? To North Korea Economics.
That marginal tax rates of 92% don't affect behavior doesn't pass Econ 101 laugh test.
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