General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[winfield100]

@renim

chev at 18.4????? most of their sales are bolts
nissan would mostly be 40kwh
byd would be much smaller per car, but much larger total after including trucks and buses.
hyundai and kia at 10?

hyundai and Kia are PHEV unless you have better data, if so I change
i have no data for trucks and busses so had to leave out. industry is rapidly evolving (i'm damn near 70 yrs old and stunned at the speed, and irked it didnt come 40 years sooner)
BUT
2017, mostly US and Europe data from insideevs, note # of Bolts and Volt/'Cadillac lmost same number

and 2018, so far. realize also this is a hobby for me.............and i ___really____ want July data to validate my TSLA position

 

[D-egg-O]

Your internet data finding skills never disappoint.

EV Sales: Global Top 20 - June 2018

 

[kbM3]

They continue: "That leads us to charging. They say that their 800-volt system will enable the Porsche Taycan to reach a charging capacity of 350 kW"

Typical peak power delivery is probably begins to taper much after 50% SOC, which on an ~800V system (192S) is about 700V. To get 350KW delivered to the pack would require 500A at that voltage.

That will require liquid cooled connectors and cables... which could happen, but I've not heard of any of the "350KW" installations using those yet.

It also would require a 90KW pack to accept a charge rate of ~3.9C. That also is significant.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that although the Taycan may be able to utilize a 350KW charger, I suspect it will never charge at 350KW...

Yeah, it's 350 kW using 1000 volts x 350 amps. Electrify America actually talks about 320 kW as a result as they don't believe anyone is working at 1,000 volts. Anyways, the Taycan is 800 volts and peak charging usually comes at nominal voltage, or about 87% of peak voltage. So that limits it to 245 kW (700 volts x 350 amps).

Actually, Porsche talks about 220 kW charging:
New Possibilities with 800-Volt Charging

That' s a bit older, but likely the actual peak charging will be in the 220-245 kW range.

Yup.

250KW was about the upper limit I estimated as well, based on a more typical 350A connector.

Porsche says 80% charge in 15 minutes, so it has got to have very little taper.

Also, high energy density, so I wonder what trade-off they made. Cost? Lots of heat loss through the pack and cable cooling?

 

[JRP3]

Porsche says 80% charge in 15 minutes, so it has got to have very little taper.

I've never believed Porsche on that number.

 

[RobStark]

To those questioning the compensation package for Dave Morton

Compensation Information for David H. Morton Jr., Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY PLC | Salary.com

David H. Morton Jr.
Executive Compensation

As Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY PLC, David H. Morton Jr. made $5,733,104 in total compensation. Of this total $525,013 was received as a salary, $563,864 was received as a bonus, $958,517 was received in stock options, $3,680,010 was awarded as stock and $5,700 came from other types of compensation. This information is according to proxy statements filed for the 2017 fiscal year.

 

[Todd Burch]

I've never believed Porsche on that number.

Me neither. Either Porsche is going to fry the battery and it’ll be toast in less than 50k miles, they’re lying, there’s some other significant trade off they haven’t told us yet, or they’ve discovered a new secret battery chemistry. And I don’t think the last option is the right one...

 

[BrianZ]

I believe Porsche intends to be accurate with this number. Earlier there was a slide deck that showed the clear trade off between charging speed and ability to hold charge after few hundred cycles.

Porsche (as well as many luxury car brands) design cars for the primary purchaser only. Since the majority of their customers lease or buy and only keep for a few years, they only care about how well the car performs for the first few years. Since few of their customers are looking for reliability or longevity, fast charging will keep their customers happier than better longevity.

So my guess is that they picked the battery chemistry optimized for charging really fast, but the trade off is that their battery degradation is going to be significantly faster than Tesla's batteries. But that likely won't matter to most Porsche buyers.

 

[Todd Burch]

I believe Porsche intends to be accurate with this number. Earlier there was a slide deck that showed the clear trade off between charging speed and ability to hold charge after few hundred cycles.

Porsche (as well as many luxury car brands) design cars for the primary purchaser only. Since the majority of their customers lease or buy and only keep for a few years, they only care about how well the car performs for the first few years. Since few of their customers are looking for reliability or longevity, fast charging will keep their customers happier than better longevity.

So my guess is that they picked the battery chemistry optimized for charging really fast, but the trade off is that their battery degradation is going to be significantly faster than Tesla's batteries. But that likely won't matter to most Porsche buyers.

Seems like an odd trade off though. I don’t think most Porsche owners put hundreds of miles on them daily, do they? As a result, overnight charging at home (allowing slower charging) seems MORE likely with Porsche owners than Tesla owners. I suppose the Autobahn would require frequent charging, but that seems like it would cater to such a small segment of owners worldwide.

I think it may be just for some bragging rights to steal some attention from Tesla, but that may end up hurting their brand in the longer term. Who’s going to absorb the cost of fried batteries? Porsche/VW? Seems they already have a boatload of financial commitments due to Dieselgate.

No, I think this may turn out like the I-Pace, where the real numbers don’t quite pan out like the marketing department promised.

 

[Zaxxon]

...and the push is on for those sweet, sweet high-margin Model 3 orders in Q3. All current P 3s have unlimited Supercharging, and referral codes can now be used to grant free lifetime Supercharging on future Performance 3s through 9/15:

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I believe Porsche intends to be accurate with this number. Earlier there was a slide deck that showed the clear trade off between charging speed and ability to hold charge after few hundred cycles.

Porsche (as well as many luxury car brands) design cars for the primary purchaser only. Since the majority of their customers lease or buy and only keep for a few years, they only care about how well the car performs for the first few years. Since few of their customers are looking for reliability or longevity, fast charging will keep their customers happier than better longevity.

So my guess is that they picked the battery chemistry optimized for charging really fast, but the trade off is that their battery degradation is going to be significantly faster than Tesla's batteries. But that likely won't matter to most Porsche buyers.

You're thinking more of what BMW drivers are like. They are the ones who lease it and trade it in for a new lease every 2 years.

Porsche owners tend to keep their cars forever. Porsche isn't a luxury brand, it's a sports car and prestige brand. People still drive 911's from every decade going back to the 1970's and argue incessantly about which era and 911 platform was the greatest.

Porsche doesn't design cars to last 2 years and most Porsche owners don't keep them only 2 years, at least not the ones who are the 911 and Cayman/Boxster market and the Taycan is definitely aimed at that part of the market.

 

[RobStark]

Porsche USA sold 55,420 units last year.

21,429 were Macan

Macan is not a sports car nor sports sedan.

13,203 were the Cayenne.

Cayenne is neither a sports car nor sports sedan.


911 is the flagship but the 911 doesn't pay the rent.

 

[Unpilot]

How many of those super fast super chargers has Porsche installed?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Porsche USA sold 55,420 units last year.

21,429 were Macan

Macan is not a sports car nor sports sedan.

13,203 were the Cayenne.

Cayenne is neither a sports car nor sports sedan.


911 is the flagship but the 911 doesn't pay the rent.

But I thought we were talking about the Taycan, which is definitely a 911 and not a Cayenne or Macan.

You do bring up an interesting point, there are now "two" Porsches, the one which is still making sports cars and the one which makes SUV's that bear the marque. I'm sure you could race a Cayenne or Macan (just as you can race a Panamera) but that's unlikely to be the reason why most Cayenne and Macan owners bought theirs.

 

[NicoV]

How many of those super fast super chargers has Porsche installed?

And follow up question: how many of those super fast super chargers are planned outside Europe?

 

[avoigt]

Seems like an odd trade off though. I don’t think most Porsche owners put hundreds of miles on them daily, do they? As a result, overnight charging at home (allowing slower charging) seems MORE likely with Porsche owners than Tesla owners. I suppose the Autobahn would require frequent charging, but that seems like it would cater to such a small segment of owners worldwide.

I think it may be just for some bragging rights to steal some attention from Tesla, but that may end up hurting their brand in the longer term. Who’s going to absorb the cost of fried batteries? Porsche/VW? Seems they already have a boatload of financial commitments due to Dieselgate.

No, I think this may turn out like the I-Pace, where the real numbers don’t quite pan out like the marketing department promised.

To add to that discussion:

Porsche has right now 1 fast charging station live with 2 stalls in Berlin. For the future they plan one station every 120 km.

They claim longevity for the Battery: "Ein Porsche hat “einen extrem langen Lebenszyklus, mehr als die Fahrzeuge anderer Marken”. Das soll auch für die Akkus gelten. (...) ein zweites Leben mindestens!"

A Porsche has a very long life cycle, more than cars other brands that should also be the case for the Battery. A second life at minimum " They talk here also about recycling.

"Schnell laden heißt für Porsche konkret: gut 15 Minuten Dauer für 400 Kilometer Reichweite an jedem Ladepunkt"

Fast charging means for Porsche to be precise good 15 Minutes for 400 km range at every leading point"

"Dazu fließt Strom durch rund 400 Zellen, die seriell und parallel verschaltet sind. Jede einzelne Zelle hat eine Spannung von etwa 4 Volt. Gesteuert vom Batteriemanagement entsteht so – vereinfacht ausgedrückt – der 800-Volt-Akku."

For that energy is flowing through 400 cells which are seriell and parallel connected. Each single cell has 4 volt. Guided by battery management you have - simplified said a 800 V Battery.

“Die Lösungen sind ein intelligentes Ladeprotokoll und ein effizientes Wärmetauschsystem, das die Akkus schnell auf Betriebstemperatur bringt und bei hoher Beanspruchung – also bei hohem Leistungsabruf oder beim Schnellladen – zuverlässig kühlt.”

The solution is an intelligent loading protocol and an efficient heat changer system that brings the batteries fast on operating temperature und with high performance - with high performance request or with fast charging- cooles in a reliable way.

A lot of promises in that text that for my limited technical understanding but reading the notes from smarter people than me don't fit together.

Porsche erklärt Elektroauto-Sportlimousine Taycan - ecomento.de

 

[30seconds]

Me neither. Either Porsche is going to fry the battery and it’ll be toast in less than 50k miles, they’re lying, there’s some other significant trade off they haven’t told us yet, or they’ve discovered a new secret battery chemistry. And I don’t think the last option is the right one...

Maybe they are using a very expensive chemistry because basically almost none of their customers drive 5k+ / year. So eat the replacement costs for the 10% who do while taking the rest of the credit.

 

[Matias]

I suppose the Autobahn would require frequent charging, but that seems like it would cater to such a small segment of owners worldwide.

I don't think it would be strange for Porsche to design a car so that it works best in their home market?

 

[EV_enthu_jp]

That means current production is around 27GWh.

Assuming M3 Long Range uses 80kWh, the 27 GWh is 340,000 M3 per year.
The 340,000 M3 per year. means 6500 M3 per week.
Regarding to Tesla Model 3 Tracker, it is now 4385 M3 per week.

Can anyone tell me which number is wrong?

Yoshi@Japan

 

[RobStark]

But I thought we were talking about the Taycan, which is definitely a 911 and not a Cayenne or Macan.

You do bring up an interesting point, there are now "two" Porsches, the one which is still making sports cars and the one which makes SUV's that bear the marque. I'm sure you could race a Cayenne or Macan (just as you can race a Panamera) but that's unlikely to be the reason why most Cayenne and Macan owners bought theirs.

That is the point of flagships. Be they 911 or Corvette.

Taycan is much closer to Panamera than 911.

But the brand's bread and butter is now crossovers.

 

[RobStark]

Assuming M3 Long Range uses 80kWh, the 27 GWh is 340,000 M3 per year.
The 340,000 M3 per year. means 6500 M3 per week.
Regarding to Tesla Model 3 Tracker, it is now 4385 M3 per week.

Can anyone tell me which number is wrong?

Yoshi@Japan

There is a delay between manufacture and ready to install in a battery pack and vehicle. 27 GWh may have just been achieved very recently, like last week.

Some of the production is also for Battery Energy Storage.

If Panasonic gets behind Fremont, then they make all cells for Model 3.

If they get ahead then some goes to Powerwall and Powerpack.