General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[mongo]

Thanks very much for the effort. Unfortunately, I think the author is quite messed up. Sigh. There was probably real information that was given to this author. But no way 50 GWh is required for 10k/week Model 3's. Pretty sloppy reporting.

Again, thanks for your effort.

With GF1 at 20 GWh for current vehicle production and Energy hurting for cells, 50 GWh needed when Model 3 reaches 10k/wk does not seem unreasonable, but let's do the numbers:

100 k S/X @87.5 average = 8.75 GWh
500 k 3 @ 70 (80.5 and ~55 with more LR than SR) = 35 GWh
TE @ 1 GWh = 1 GWh
Total: 44.75 GWh
Not including Roadster and Semi

From Electrek:

At 35 GWh, they would be producing at the originally announced production rate, but Tesla has since increased the planned total capacity to 105 GWh of battery cells and 150 GWh of total battery pack output.

 

[ajax]

With GF1 at 20 GWh for current vehicle production and Energy hurting for cells, 50 GWh needed when Model 3 reaches 10k/wk does not seem unreasonable, but let's do the numbers:

100 k S/X @87.5 average = 8.75 GWh
500 k 3 @ 70 (80.5 and ~55 with more LR than SR) = 35 GWh
TE @ 1 GWh = 1 GWh
Total: 44.75 GWh
Not including Roadster and Semi

From Electrek:

Note that those 8.75 GWh of S & X batteries will be produced in Japan for the foreseeable future.

 

[shlokavica22]

Note that those 8.75 GWh of S & X batteries will be produced in Japan for the foreseeable future.

Of the top of your head- what are TSLA's contractual obligations regarding this batteries?

 

[mongo]

Note that those 8.75 GWh of S & X batteries will be produced in Japan for the foreseeable future.

True, and the long range plan calls for an additional 36.25 GWh of pack assembly (45 GWh of externally produced cells).
There may be miscommunication regarding cell production vs pack production numbers.

 

[neroden]

What do you think of Hauser's Law? Empirical data seems to back it up.

"Hauser's law is the proposition that, in the United States, federal tax revenues since World War II have always been approximately equal to 19.5% of GDP, regardless of wide fluctuations in the marginal tax rate.[1] Historically, since the end of World War II, federal tax receipts as a percentage of gross domestic productaveraged 17.9%, with a range from 14.4% to 20.9% between 1946 - 2007."

That's a bit too large of a fluctuation to really look like a solid result -- the dfference between 14.4% and 20.9% is substantial. Look at that huge drop when Reagan gets into power.

But hey, I could believe it. The choice of who to take the money from (the rich via progressive income tax with high top rates, or the poor via regressive fees and Social Security tax) matters massively, of course.

The main effect of the top marginal tax rate is IMO that it determines how much money the ultrarich have to buy politicians with.

 

[Curt Renz]

The pop upward today may have inspired some Tesla shareholders with Model 3 reservations to convert them to orders. Perhaps they'll choose a more expensive version than originally considered, or a Model S or X.

 

[kbM3]

I believe it! Anyone try to get a Tesla recently? It’s not waiting for a car anymore, it’s getting a pdf from their contracts department that allows them to get paid. That’s going to be the source of cash flow crisis.

Yes. To @neroden’s point, communication was bad.

Even though I follow Tesla closely, I assumed that because my ISA gave me a delivery date and the credit union said everything was ready and they just needed final paperwork, and that I had Cc’d My isa and credit union guy, that everything was settled.

I had no email or verbal communication telling me to bring a check. I flew in from out of town to pick up in Fremont Sunday and assumed everything was set. Luckily, I could increase my margin (rather than sell 200 shares) and wire Tesla the money. The couple next to me had the same problem and no car because they had sold it.

Fremont was a total madhouse, but on the plus side I got to meet Ryan Mccaffrey @ryanjm from ride the lightning, while he was picking up his Performance. Super guy, as well as his friends.

 

[kbM3]

Goodcarbadcar .net now shows Model 3 figures from InsideEVs... -

U.S.A. Car Sales July 2018

1. Corolla 26,754
2. Camry 26,311
2. Civic 26,311
4. Accord 24,927
5. Sentra 19,362
6. Altima 16,015
7. Model 3 14,250
8. Elantra 13,753

Pretty nice going...

Good shot at passing Corolla( 6k/week = 26k) monthly sales before end of the year, if Canada doesn’t get too many.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Of the top of your head- what are TSLA's contractual obligations regarding this batteries?

Last I heard the contract ran through 2017. I haven't heard of a new contract, so perhaps they're just taking it month to month until both GF1 produces enough for 3 and S/X, and also they do the S/X redesign to use it. There were rumors recently for an S/X interior refresh 2019 to more closely resemble 3 and 2020 Roadster and I'd assume the Y, but with a small "gauge cluster" unlike the 3, and a larger update in 2021 or so (likely earliest they change it to use 2170 cells, though I wouldn't rule out doing so before then).

 

[dc_h]

Note that those 8.75 GWh of S & X batteries will be produced in Japan for the foreseeable future.

Seems like Tesla can save a lot more converting electricals than batteries in the short term. It also minimizes capex for both Tesla and Panasonic. If they’re short of capacity it may not make sense to change to 2170’s until gf3 and gf4 are online in China and Europe.

Any thoughts on if Tesla needs to expand the building before the next step up in production? How many lines can Panasonic build in Sparks and can the Grohmann systems handle up to 10,000 packs? Sounded like those new Grohmann pack assembly systems could do 5000 packs per line, so they have really compressed the assembly process. I thought the cell creation ad drying was the primary space requirement.

 

[MXWing]

The pop upward today may have inspired some Tesla shareholders with Model 3 reservations to convert them to orders. Perhaps they'll choose a more expensive version than originally considered, or a Model S or X.

A few pages back, I mentioned if Q2 completed crushed my short put positions I would have a quandary closing on my PM3 today.

I mentioned starting a GoFundMe to raise supercharger credits to stay warm as I would be sleeping in the M3.

Fortunately, my short puts are on track to expire worthless and supercharging is included. win win!

Long way of saying.. some shareholders may take money off table to buy cars as you suggest!

 

[MXWing]

Came to a startling conclusion today after spending an obscene amount of money by many people’s standards.

I got an all check boxes marked Model 3 with zero practical experience. I really just know what they look like and technical specs. No test drives, no YouTube research. Owning an X was really enough validation. Tesla did good by me and I was convinced all my cars were gonna be Tesla’s so not much worry.

Even though I spend a significant amount of time on the Model 3 forums it’s to fight the good fight on general fundamentals addressing crap like why
Tesla won’t bankrupt themselves so I can have a 35K Model 3
I won’t pay for beta software that will kill me
Tesla screwed me because my Model 3 had dirt on delivery, Bla bla

First time sitting in one and first time driving one was when I bought it.

OMFG. Sex on wheels. I think I can save money and aggravation on Disneyland annual passes now.

You crazy if you don’t have a Tesla already and don’t buy it after trying it. I’d be turning in any other “performance” anything for a five seater that grabs groceries and hits the local speed limits in about 0.5-2 seconds..

No more dry powder to get more shares but wish I did.

AN ADVICE!

 

[RobStark]

 

[EinSV]

Food for thought from ArkInvest, one of the more insightful firms covering Tesla.

 

[EinSV]

 

[EinSV]

 

[hiroshiy]

Thanks very much for the effort. Unfortunately, I think the author is quite messed up. Sigh. There was probably real information that was given to this author. But no way 50 GWh is required for 10k/week Model 3's. Pretty sloppy reporting.

Again, thanks for your effort.

You're welcome. Yeah, typically Japanese reporters are not good at math. I guess he/she thought 50GWh is the future planned gigafactory output, but in fact it was a pack production target for gigafactory in 2018. He/she could have had a chance to hear about the next steps towards 105 GWh.

 

[sub]

Sold my first model 3 today, setup a test drive of one friends model 3 for another friend. This is for NorCal, delivery time frame went from 1-3 months for LR to 2-4 months during the last week while my friend got his finances ready to order.

 

[haid]

I've had my Model 3 for 2 months. I've given maybe 8 test drives to friends. At least one is ordering and another is trying to figure out how to pay for it. Some others already have an order in but have never seen or driven it in person. As these puppies spread across the country there will be another wave of interest.

 

[wdolson]

Yes. To @neroden’s point, communication was bad.

Even though I follow Tesla closely, I assumed that because my ISA gave me a delivery date and the credit union said everything was ready and they just needed final paperwork, and that I had Cc’d My isa and credit union guy, that everything was settled.

I had no email or verbal communication telling me to bring a check. I flew in from out of town to pick up in Fremont Sunday and assumed everything was set. Luckily, I could increase my margin (rather than sell 200 shares) and wire Tesla the money. The couple next to me had the same problem and no car because they had sold it.

Fremont was a total madhouse, but on the plus side I got to meet Ryan Mccaffrey @ryanjm from ride the lightning, while he was picking up his Performance. Super guy, as well as his friends.

Ryan mentioned you in his bonus podcast released Sunday evening. Your famous.