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Apparently one bottleneck at the moment is delivering 3s to customers and adding more personnel and centres to address it requires more OPEX. So I thought, why not send some 3s to Europe. It would not need new opex that much. Some 10 000 3s could easily (I think) be distributed all over Europe. Tesla could completely empty model 3 delivery pipeline to Europe.

But then I realised, NA Model 3s are not compatible with european superchargers. :eek:

It is not due to technology.

The reasons why they don't do that yet is pretty simple I believe. For this quarter they want to maximize deliveries to be profitable hence there is basically no time-way to get the units to Europe before Q3 finish even if they could probably sell any high spec version they produce.

A second reason would be that they need to get their "Factory" in Tillburg Netherlands ready to provide the added value/assembly of the cars to avoid the 10% tariff that EU impose on any import car from the US (US impose 2% on EU cars). A guess is that this has not yet be in focus and might not even happen till november-december or so for Q1 2019 deliveries.

To avoid this cost and problem short turn the next guess is that they will actually sell to other countries first since in the EU they have the option of selling without tariffs added at some surcharge with Tillburg. Hence deliveries to other countries, possibly China, Norway (dno if they apply tariff vs EU/US differently), Japan and so on. Probably most units produced soon will be really high spec ones abroad to maximize margin and also make some happy customers.

Hope this explains it a bit overall.
 
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Yeah, the more I think about it, the more sense it makes to me.

Roadster 2 will be purely performance monster, blowing away any competition from the traditional brands (Ferrari, etc). It's price suggests that the target market are people who already can afford Model S with ease.
Model 3 is the vehicle aligned with Tesla's mission- design and manufactured with the idea to sell it as a mass vehicle to the middle class.

There is no vehicle for the really filthy reach. Why the f*** not? The brand is so strong and desirable.
I can see 1 niche model per year or so, VERY limited editions. Say <100 cars, with a price tag > $1M. Aesthetic marvels treated as a fine art for collectors. Model S performance "only" will be enough, because the accent is on exclusivity.

It will strengthen the brand image even more and will bring a good amount of $.

It also explains why they choose this particular venue.

This won't happen. Making any new car requires a design team focused on the development and then the car has to go through all the same regulatory approval as a mass produced car, Large car makers rarely come out with limited production halo cars because making one is a strain for even their resources. For Tesla it's a non-starter.

The new Roadster is a strategic move on Tesla's part. Tesla proved that a high performance electric sports car was possible with the Performance S and X, but the rest of the industry whined that you couldn't take it out on the track and drive it hard for hours at a time (even though the people who actually do this with sports cars is tiny) and they don't make the right noises. Elon is trying to destroy the first point and render the second moot (or mute).

The sports car end of the automotive industry is small, but very vocal. The top car publications focus a lot more on the latest sports cars than they do the latest Prius. Especially when you consider the proportion of sales vs the lines of ink devoted to the vehicles in those publications.

Another way car makers get their brand in front of the gearhead public is through racing. Most of the car makers known for performance cars sponsor race teams and have their tech in race cars. Tesla will shut up the gearheads if a Tesla Roadster wins NASCAR.

For car makers, they often come out with special editions of existing car designs because that's a cheap tweak to an existing design and doesn't require regulatory approval. I could see Tesla possibly coming out with some special edition versions of the Roadster, but Tesla also does things differently than everyone else and they might not.

But from a logistics perspective, completely unique cars or heavily modified, limited edition versions of their existing cars is highly unlikely. They aren't going to delay the Model Y or the pickup for some limited edition car that will require a lot of engineering and design resources. It's bad business. They might make $1 billion on a special edition one off car design, but they stand to make many times that from a mass produced vehicle.

Methinks TMC unbounded optimism is coming out again. It'll be a Roadster 2. Maybe with the SpaceX package or something else newly revealed, but it's got to be the Roadster.

Tesla tends to have Tesla fan events to unveil new car designs. They have never revealed an all new design of anything at a car show. So I agree, it's something they have already announced. It might be the semi production configuration. Elon has said they have made some significant changes to the design since the reveal.

It could also be something more mundane like a partial refresh of the Model S/X.
 
Tesla tends to have Tesla fan events to unveil new car designs. They have never revealed an all new design of anything at a car show. So I agree, it's something they have already announced.

I think most signs are pointing towards the Roadster. The teaser image looks like a closeup of the Roadster, maybe. I played around with some images of the Roadster and the Semi, trying to match body lines. I think the Roadster comes closer. I couldn't find the same angle as the teaser pic, which in my mind was taken from the passenger side facing towards the rear a bit from a slight downward angle just behind the B pillar.
 

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Tesla will shut up the gearheads if a Tesla Roadster wins NASCAR.
Somehow I really don't see that happening.

(Fun fact: NASCAR actually mandates a 5.8 liter pushrod V8 gasoline engine with a 4-speed manual. Fuel injection only happened this decade.)

About the only thing where I see a prominent enough stage, stand-out performance being possible, and a rulebook open enough to allow an electric to compete against gasoline cars is the Car Displaying New Technology class at the 24 Hours of Le Mans (aka Garage 56), but that is hell for an electric to get through. The 100-200 kWh (depending on how much downforce you run) you'd need to get through a stint would be absurdly heavy (hurting performance badly, it'd even have trouble competing against the almost-spec pro-am LMP2 cars), and pit stops need to be fast, so you'd have to implement battery swap.

And, that'd be a ton of money put in with very high risk of failure... to sell cars when Tesla already has issues meeting their existing demand?

I'd love to see an electric be run at Le Mans, but I don't think Tesla's the company to do it. Not when their demand is this strong already. R&D would be nice, but I feel like the R&D necessary to win (or finish with a decent performance) at Le Mans isn't actually that relevant to the R&D necessary to make a good road electric car.
 
Apparently one bottleneck at the moment is delivering 3s to customers and adding more personnel and centres to address it requires more OPEX. So I thought, why not send some 3s to Europe. It would not need new opex that much. Some 10 000 3s could easily (I think) be distributed all over Europe. Tesla could completely empty model 3 delivery pipeline to Europe.

But then I realised, NA Model 3s are not compatible with european superchargers. :eek:
AND Tesla wants/needs to maximize US tax rebate for reservation holders.
 
The First Quieter Megacity, Thanks to Electric Vehicles
BYD is at the forefront of converting an entire city’s fleet of buses to plug-in electric vehicles.


On a recent afternoon at a bus stop in the business district of Nanshan in Shenzhen, China, the air was filled with the sound of chirping birds in a nearby park. The street was quiet, with the exception of the occasional diesel truck chugging past—holdouts against a future that glided in with barely a sound: an electric bus.

A woman who’d been browsing on her smartphone while she waited hadn’t noticed the bus creeping up to the stop. Not until the doors opened with a beep, beep, beep and a man barking boisterously into his phone stepped out did she spring into action and hop aboard. Passengers scanned in with their smartphones, paying through WeChat, the app developed by Tencent Holdings Ltd., the Chinese social media giant whose flashy 50-story headquarters could be seen from the bus stop.

Every megacity can trace its history in increments of rising decibels. For most of them, the turning point was the Industrial Revolution. But in Shenzhen—now packed with more than 20 million people and hundreds of factories turning out high-tech hardware—the quiet age is only four decades in the past. Back then, China’s answer to Silicon Valley was still a collection of calm fishing villages just across the river from bustling Hong Kong.

But in 1980, Deng Xiaoping declared Shenzhen to be China’s first special economic zone. The unending wail of urban sound descended almost at once: cars, highways, delivery trucks, sirens, buses, factories, power plants, shipping facilities, trains, and innumerable motorbikes. The newborn metropolis swiftly took its place among its global peers in making a never-ending racket.

The master plan created 14 local industrial clusters, distributing the risk of the government’s experiment. The first factory workers relied on about 300 fishing and farming villages for basics such as potable water and food. The result is that modern Shenzhen is multicentered, with clusters of walkable space, according to Juan Du, an architecture professor at the University of Hong Kong who studied the urban transformation. The city experimented with infrastructure: highways, bus corridors, and a subway that now has one-third the number of stops as New York’s (at one-tenth the age). Bullet trains, ferries, and a new airport connect it to the world.

1400x-1.jpg

Brand-new BYD electric taxis ready to be dispatched.
PHOTOGRAPHER: LUKE CASEY FOR BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK
Because of how the city developed, with skyscrapers filling in the spaces between rural farm communities, about half the city’s residents are urban villagers, who don’t necessarily require their own cars. The new Shenzhen has a mix of electric buses, electric bikes and scooters, electric taxis, and even electric dump trucks. Although the city arrived late to urban noise, the shift to EVs that China has been pushing more than any other country has put Shenzhen at the leading edge of something unprecedented: the quieter city.

If Shenzhen is at the forefront of metropolis-scale replacement of the combustion engine, then BYD Co. is the new Ford of China’s electrified-motor city. The electric-vehicle maker, backed by big Chinese subsidies and a $232 million investment from Warren Buffett in 2008, has eclipsed Tesla Inc. as the leading maker of plug-in EVs. BYD almost singlehandedly electrified Shenzhen’s fleet of 16,000 buses and is now at work on the full-scale replacement of the city’s taxis and trucks.

At the company’s Shenzhen headquarters, more than 37,000 employees make parts for electric cars, buses, and taxis. Most will be sold in China as part of the government’s master plan to become the world’s industrial powerhouse of what Beijing calls “new energy vehicles.”

BYD’s founder, billionaire Wang Chuanfu, envisions China’s fleet, now at 300 million registered vehicles, entirely electrified by 2030. That’s more ambitious than the goals set by policymakers in Beijing, who are shooting for 20 percent electrification by 2025. But Wang insists. “It will happen earlier than expected,” he told reporters in Shenzhen last year.

China’s push to go fully electric would give BYD a strong domestic foundation for its ultimate ambition to become a global brand. To that end, Wang hired the actor and climate champion Leonardo DiCaprio in 2017 as a brand ambassador and began exporting its vehicles to the U.S. BYD has inked deals to supply electric buses to Facebook Inc.’s sprawling headquarters in Menlo Park, Calif., the transit authority in Long Beach, Calif., and the campuses of Stanford University and the University of California at Los Angeles. The most recent victory came in August, when BYD won a bid to supply all Georgia government entities with EVs.

The company is using the immense financial backing at home to its advantage. A $9 billion credit line from China Development Bank, for example, is helping BYD place electric monorails in Brazil, Egypt, and the Philippines. But the crutch of government funding, which has supported the company’s expansion, may not be around forever. Grants that once covered half the 1 million yuan ($147,000) it takes to build an electric bus in 2015 now only cover a third of the cost. Shrinking subsidies are a serious threat for a company with big research and development costs.

1400x-1.jpg

Each BYD bus takes about three hours for a full charge.
PHOTOGRAPHER: LUKE CASEY FOR BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK
One of the biggest bottlenecks for BYD’s success at home and abroad is finding the space for charging stations. The company has had to get creative in Shenzhen, slapping solar panels on top of a parking garage to create its first taxi-charging station. As Shenzhen’s housing prices skyrocket to rival Hong Kong’s, real estate for charging stations isn’t easy to find, and then they have to be fitted to the grid, says BYD spokesman Xiao Haiping.

At Shenzhen Eastern Bus Co., one of BYD’s three bus-fleet partners, the monthly electricity bill of 17 million yuan is one-third of what its diesel bill used to be. The company has 15,000 employees and 5,800 buses, which use seven charging stations. Most of the buses are charged at night, when electricity is cheaper, though they sometimes have to top off in the afternoon. Each bus takes about three hours for a full charge and has a range of 250 kilometers (155 miles).

At one of the charging stations on the outskirts of Shenzhen, the mechanics have strikingly clean hands, because they haven’t been handling oil-covered parts all day. Workers fiddling with the new technology on a daily basis came up with breakthroughs, some of which are on display at the facility’s “innovation room.” The only noise comes from a fan and a giant vacuum keeping the motors clear of dust.

Another force pushing Chinese cities toward an electric—and therefore quieter—future is the government’s draconian antipollution measures. They began in 2013 with a set of prohibitions called the Air Pollution Action Plan, which capped coal use, banned additional coal-burning capacity, and set limits on fine particulate matter for key regions. A new plan, published in July, set a target of 2 million electric-car sales per year by 2020. Shenzhen put in place high fees for gas-vehicle licenses while offering free parking and tax incentives to encourage the purchase of electric vehicles. The city also has mandated that all new trucks be electric and that 20,000 diesel trucks be scrapped. Ride-sharing services must now use EV fleets, too.

“Electric cars can definitely reduce the noise,” says Tao Liu, chairman of Clocell Corp., a company that created a sound map of Shenzhen’s busy Futian District to help the government tackle noise pollution.

Perhaps the most significant moment in Shenzhen’s shift toward quiet came in 2003, when the city began a ban on gas-powered motorcycles. In the ban’s wake came vastly popular electric bikes, which riders could use without a license to get around most of the city. But being so quiet, the bikes became a menace, with riders flouting traffic laws and clobbering pedestrians. City authorities eventually banned them, with some half-million ending up in a massive dump. Even after the enforcement sweep, many e-bike riders have finagled their way back onto the roads.

600x-1.jpg

A bus station worker checks the electric motors between runs.
PHOTOGRAPHER: LUKE CASEY FOR BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK
Shenzhen also offers evidence that urban cleanup has its limits. The Mawan coal plant, albeit one of the first in China to use seawater to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions, is inconveniently located in an up-and-coming neighborhood near electric-bus stops. It’s a reminder that China’s electricity is still two-thirds coal-powered. All those e-vehicles still end up plugged into a dirty, noisy grid.

Shenzhen Mayor Chen Rugui, a former Communist Party chief in Zhongshan, is also honing in on gridlock, a major source of noise pollution, with the use of heavy surveillance that seems more like an Orwellian spy state than an urban utopia. The city’s traffic police bureau is working with telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies Co. to use big data, facial recognition, and video sensors to manage congestion and accidents. Shanghai-based startup KeyGo Technologies uses an “acoustic camera” system to zero in on honking cars, so police can analyze whether the noise pollution deserves a fine.

Tao, whose company sells noise insulation to wealthy clients, expects EVs will bring calm but not pure noiselessness. Electrics do make some sound, especially when they go fast. Even if electric vehicles are quieter on average, Tao says, the hissing whir they make at high speeds may not be much better than the vroom of a combustion engine. At higher speeds, the low-pitched whistle is caused by the car cutting through the air, not the motor. So, Tao says, luxury EVs may actually contribute to Shenzhen’s next noise problem: rich kids drag racing in the wee hours.

“They’ll drive out at night, and you know the sound,” Tao says. “BroooOOOOoooom!”
 
The First Quieter Megacity, Thanks to Electric Vehicles
BYD is at the forefront of converting an entire city’s fleet of buses to plug-in electric vehicles.


On a recent afternoon at a bus stop in the business district of Nanshan in Shenzhen, China, the air was filled with the sound of chirping birds in a nearby park. The street was quiet, with the exception of the occasional diesel truck chugging past—holdouts against a future that glided in with barely a sound: an electric bus.

A woman who’d been browsing on her smartphone while she waited hadn’t noticed the bus creeping up to the stop. Not until the doors opened with a beep, beep, beep and a man barking boisterously into his phone stepped out did she spring into action and hop aboard. Passengers scanned in with their smartphones, paying through WeChat, the app developed by Tencent Holdings Ltd., the Chinese social media giant whose flashy 50-story headquarters could be seen from the bus stop.

Every megacity can trace its history in increments of rising decibels. For most of them, the turning point was the Industrial Revolution. But in Shenzhen—now packed with more than 20 million people and hundreds of factories turning out high-tech hardware—the quiet age is only four decades in the past. Back then, China’s answer to Silicon Valley was still a collection of calm fishing villages just across the river from bustling Hong Kong.

But in 1980, Deng Xiaoping declared Shenzhen to be China’s first special economic zone. The unending wail of urban sound descended almost at once: cars, highways, delivery trucks, sirens, buses, factories, power plants, shipping facilities, trains, and innumerable motorbikes. The newborn metropolis swiftly took its place among its global peers in making a never-ending racket.

The master plan created 14 local industrial clusters, distributing the risk of the government’s experiment. The first factory workers relied on about 300 fishing and farming villages for basics such as potable water and food. The result is that modern Shenzhen is multicentered, with clusters of walkable space, according to Juan Du, an architecture professor at the University of Hong Kong who studied the urban transformation. The city experimented with infrastructure: highways, bus corridors, and a subway that now has one-third the number of stops as New York’s (at one-tenth the age). Bullet trains, ferries, and a new airport connect it to the world.

1400x-1.jpg

Brand-new BYD electric taxis ready to be dispatched.
PHOTOGRAPHER: LUKE CASEY FOR BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK
Because of how the city developed, with skyscrapers filling in the spaces between rural farm communities, about half the city’s residents are urban villagers, who don’t necessarily require their own cars. The new Shenzhen has a mix of electric buses, electric bikes and scooters, electric taxis, and even electric dump trucks. Although the city arrived late to urban noise, the shift to EVs that China has been pushing more than any other country has put Shenzhen at the leading edge of something unprecedented: the quieter city.

If Shenzhen is at the forefront of metropolis-scale replacement of the combustion engine, then BYD Co. is the new Ford of China’s electrified-motor city. The electric-vehicle maker, backed by big Chinese subsidies and a $232 million investment from Warren Buffett in 2008, has eclipsed Tesla Inc. as the leading maker of plug-in EVs. BYD almost singlehandedly electrified Shenzhen’s fleet of 16,000 buses and is now at work on the full-scale replacement of the city’s taxis and trucks.

At the company’s Shenzhen headquarters, more than 37,000 employees make parts for electric cars, buses, and taxis. Most will be sold in China as part of the government’s master plan to become the world’s industrial powerhouse of what Beijing calls “new energy vehicles.”

BYD’s founder, billionaire Wang Chuanfu, envisions China’s fleet, now at 300 million registered vehicles, entirely electrified by 2030. That’s more ambitious than the goals set by policymakers in Beijing, who are shooting for 20 percent electrification by 2025. But Wang insists. “It will happen earlier than expected,” he told reporters in Shenzhen last year.

China’s push to go fully electric would give BYD a strong domestic foundation for its ultimate ambition to become a global brand. To that end, Wang hired the actor and climate champion Leonardo DiCaprio in 2017 as a brand ambassador and began exporting its vehicles to the U.S. BYD has inked deals to supply electric buses to Facebook Inc.’s sprawling headquarters in Menlo Park, Calif., the transit authority in Long Beach, Calif., and the campuses of Stanford University and the University of California at Los Angeles. The most recent victory came in August, when BYD won a bid to supply all Georgia government entities with EVs.

The company is using the immense financial backing at home to its advantage. A $9 billion credit line from China Development Bank, for example, is helping BYD place electric monorails in Brazil, Egypt, and the Philippines. But the crutch of government funding, which has supported the company’s expansion, may not be around forever. Grants that once covered half the 1 million yuan ($147,000) it takes to build an electric bus in 2015 now only cover a third of the cost. Shrinking subsidies are a serious threat for a company with big research and development costs.

1400x-1.jpg

Each BYD bus takes about three hours for a full charge.
PHOTOGRAPHER: LUKE CASEY FOR BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK
One of the biggest bottlenecks for BYD’s success at home and abroad is finding the space for charging stations. The company has had to get creative in Shenzhen, slapping solar panels on top of a parking garage to create its first taxi-charging station. As Shenzhen’s housing prices skyrocket to rival Hong Kong’s, real estate for charging stations isn’t easy to find, and then they have to be fitted to the grid, says BYD spokesman Xiao Haiping.

At Shenzhen Eastern Bus Co., one of BYD’s three bus-fleet partners, the monthly electricity bill of 17 million yuan is one-third of what its diesel bill used to be. The company has 15,000 employees and 5,800 buses, which use seven charging stations. Most of the buses are charged at night, when electricity is cheaper, though they sometimes have to top off in the afternoon. Each bus takes about three hours for a full charge and has a range of 250 kilometers (155 miles).

At one of the charging stations on the outskirts of Shenzhen, the mechanics have strikingly clean hands, because they haven’t been handling oil-covered parts all day. Workers fiddling with the new technology on a daily basis came up with breakthroughs, some of which are on display at the facility’s “innovation room.” The only noise comes from a fan and a giant vacuum keeping the motors clear of dust.

Another force pushing Chinese cities toward an electric—and therefore quieter—future is the government’s draconian antipollution measures. They began in 2013 with a set of prohibitions called the Air Pollution Action Plan, which capped coal use, banned additional coal-burning capacity, and set limits on fine particulate matter for key regions. A new plan, published in July, set a target of 2 million electric-car sales per year by 2020. Shenzhen put in place high fees for gas-vehicle licenses while offering free parking and tax incentives to encourage the purchase of electric vehicles. The city also has mandated that all new trucks be electric and that 20,000 diesel trucks be scrapped. Ride-sharing services must now use EV fleets, too.

“Electric cars can definitely reduce the noise,” says Tao Liu, chairman of Clocell Corp., a company that created a sound map of Shenzhen’s busy Futian District to help the government tackle noise pollution.

Perhaps the most significant moment in Shenzhen’s shift toward quiet came in 2003, when the city began a ban on gas-powered motorcycles. In the ban’s wake came vastly popular electric bikes, which riders could use without a license to get around most of the city. But being so quiet, the bikes became a menace, with riders flouting traffic laws and clobbering pedestrians. City authorities eventually banned them, with some half-million ending up in a massive dump. Even after the enforcement sweep, many e-bike riders have finagled their way back onto the roads.

600x-1.jpg

A bus station worker checks the electric motors between runs.
PHOTOGRAPHER: LUKE CASEY FOR BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK
Shenzhen also offers evidence that urban cleanup has its limits. The Mawan coal plant, albeit one of the first in China to use seawater to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions, is inconveniently located in an up-and-coming neighborhood near electric-bus stops. It’s a reminder that China’s electricity is still two-thirds coal-powered. All those e-vehicles still end up plugged into a dirty, noisy grid.

Shenzhen Mayor Chen Rugui, a former Communist Party chief in Zhongshan, is also honing in on gridlock, a major source of noise pollution, with the use of heavy surveillance that seems more like an Orwellian spy state than an urban utopia. The city’s traffic police bureau is working with telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies Co. to use big data, facial recognition, and video sensors to manage congestion and accidents. Shanghai-based startup KeyGo Technologies uses an “acoustic camera” system to zero in on honking cars, so police can analyze whether the noise pollution deserves a fine.

Tao, whose company sells noise insulation to wealthy clients, expects EVs will bring calm but not pure noiselessness. Electrics do make some sound, especially when they go fast. Even if electric vehicles are quieter on average, Tao says, the hissing whir they make at high speeds may not be much better than the vroom of a combustion engine. At higher speeds, the low-pitched whistle is caused by the car cutting through the air, not the motor. So, Tao says, luxury EVs may actually contribute to Shenzhen’s next noise problem: rich kids drag racing in the wee hours.

“They’ll drive out at night, and you know the sound,” Tao says. “BroooOOOOoooom!”
Is there a link to the source article?
 
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This won't happen. Making any new car requires a design team focused on the development and then the car has to go through all the same regulatory approval as a mass produced car, Large car makers rarely come out with limited production halo cars because making one is a strain for even their resources. For Tesla it's a non-starter.
.

Limited production halo cars are not brought out on a regular basis by many large car makers because most don't have the brand to support such pricing.

If the limited vehicle is a flop then it doesn't have much of a halo effect.

Still, Ford brought out the GT40

Toyota the LFA.

Honda has the Acura NSX

GM is bringing out the mid engined Corvette

Nissan has the GTR.

Mercedes has the AMG GTS and Project One.

VW has Lamborghini and Bugatti. Pretty much everything they make is a limited run halo vehicle.

FCA got rid of Ferrari so the Agnelli family can have the crown jewel as FCA shops itself. Now there is talk of a new Viper.

BMW has bespoke models made by their Rolls Royce brand. You can take a Rolls Royce chassis/powertrain and have custom body work and interior made for a One of One edition.
 
I’ve heard this argument before. It has never been true. So can we let it go?

You sincerely believe, that if Tesla would now reveal next gen Model S, it would not have any impact on current Model S sales?

AFAIK all the other manufacturers discount (or add special packages to it) their current model in the end of its lifetime before new model steps in.

But this is purely academics, because Tesla wont
showcase next gen Model S now because they know the Osborne danger.
 
You sincerely believe, that if Tesla would now reveal next gen Model S, it would not have any impact on current Model S sales?

No because they’d do it like they always do; ‘Oh, and by the way as of last week all Model Ss have such and such new interior’. They wouldn’t announce a new interior is coming in 6 months. They aren’t stupid. They’ll announce it if/when they are ready to put it in cars now/as of yesterday.

AFAIK all the other manufacturers discount (or add special packages to it) their current model in the end of its lifetime before new model steps in.

AFAIK Tesla doesn’t operate like all other manufacturers and has yet to specifically discount the current model before a new model steps in. IN FACT, Tesla continuously changes their cars, changes the options available, and routinely does NOT give customers a heads up in many cases.

Just read this forum and find hundreds of posts by members; ‘If only I’d known Tesla was going to change such and such a feature I’d have waited and not ordered.’

But this is purely academics, because Tesla wont
showcase next gen Model S now because they know the Osborne danger.

It’s academic because it’s not applicable.
 
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I’ve heard this argument before. It has never been true. So can we let it go?
The only other case of significantly meaningful Model S change was the2016 facelift. If the internet's memory is correct, they've announced it the same day it went into production (April 12).
I don't see Tesla doing this update any other way without osborning. Now they may very well do it later this year, but I think they are taking zero chances in q3 and q4 so they'll only do it if the update is 100% ready to go with all new parts available in volume and zero issues with manufacturing.
 
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Somehow I really don't see that happening.

(Fun fact: NASCAR actually mandates a 5.8 liter pushrod V8 gasoline engine with a 4-speed manual. Fuel injection only happened this decade.)

About the only thing where I see a prominent enough stage, stand-out performance being possible, and a rulebook open enough to allow an electric to compete against gasoline cars is the Car Displaying New Technology class at the 24 Hours of Le Mans (aka Garage 56), but that is hell for an electric to get through. The 100-200 kWh (depending on how much downforce you run) you'd need to get through a stint would be absurdly heavy (hurting performance badly, it'd even have trouble competing against the almost-spec pro-am LMP2 cars), and pit stops need to be fast, so you'd have to implement battery swap.

And, that'd be a ton of money put in with very high risk of failure... to sell cars when Tesla already has issues meeting their existing demand?

I'd love to see an electric be run at Le Mans, but I don't think Tesla's the company to do it. Not when their demand is this strong already. R&D would be nice, but I feel like the R&D necessary to win (or finish with a decent performance) at Le Mans isn't actually that relevant to the R&D necessary to make a good road electric car.

I've never followed NASCAR. I didn't realize they pretty much mandated the power train. Le Mans would be tough for an electric.

To develop a race car version from the Roadster would not have to be a Tesla project. They could sponsor a team that does most of the work with only a bit of help from Tesla.

I still think the NextGen Roadster is mostly intended to shut down the remaining critics about EV performance.
 
The only other case of significantly meaningful Model S change was the2016 facelift. If the internet's memory is correct, they've announced it the same day it went into production (April 12).
I don't see Tesla doing this update any other way without osborning. Now they may very well do it later this year, but I think they are taking zero chances in q3 and q4 so they'll only do it if the update is 100% ready to go with all new parts available in volume and zero issues with manufacturing.
You are correct. I ordered in 2016, pre-facelift. A few days after the announcement, I got a mail from Tesla stating that my order would be the facelifted model S.
 
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bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-08-31/electric-vehicles-in-california-their-day-will-come-suddenly

"It took Norway about a decade to reach six percent electric vehicle sales but then only five years to go from 6 percent to 47 percent. Norway is a special case, given that the country has generous incentives that aren’t replicated elsewhere. It does show, though, that inflection points occur, and when they do, markets can change quickly."

"Inflection points are notoriously difficult to call. Generally with consumer products, these things take longer than expected to get going, but then go faster than expected once they do. I think we’re still several years away from a true inflection point on EV adoption, but it’s definitely getting closer."
 
The only other case of significantly meaningful Model S change was the2016 facelift. If the internet's memory is correct, they've announced it the same day it went into production (April 12).
I don't see Tesla doing this update any other way without osborning. Now they may very well do it later this year, but I think they are taking zero chances in q3 and q4 so they'll only do it if the update is 100% ready to go with all new parts available in volume and zero issues with manufacturing.
I can't remember the exact details, but when they did the facelift, there were people in Australia who had ordered Signature Ss, and they were given the option of taking delivery of the original car, or (at no cost) waiting a little while longer and getting the corresponding facelift. I believe Tesla just took the refused cars and sold them as inventory.
 
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