General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Unpilot]

Here she is

Nice find...and great video...Thanks!

 

[hobbes]

Found this on reddit and had to share. A Model 3 vs. BMW i3 review from a "BMW blog"... Nicely made, good presentation and informative (nothing new for us though). Actually in the end I thought one of us here must have produced this to make it look like it was an independent review from a Tesla outsider .

 

[AWDtsla]

Of course, your judgement about the utility of a given range is a tangential to your (loud) assertion that charging efficiency affects road range.

And incidentally, I disagree with that judgment. If the drivetrain efficiency means I can go 20% farther on a charge, that can make all the difference between 2 supercharging stops, or 3. Or it might make every bit of difference for many routes off of main arteries where there aren't superchargers, and level 1-2 & destination charging will be required.

Refusing to acknowledge the reality of how the factors affect things just does a disservice to others here who may be trying to understand how it all works.

No I would say ignoring charging efficiency and vampire drain is even more misleading to the casual driver than what you're asserting. Long range trip pushing the limits of the pack is still a rare thing. A driver in the course of a normal week will come up against these two repeatedly, while almost never coming up into a absolute range issue. If the mean commute distance is 14 miles, and you're losing 50-100% of that in vampire drain, WTF, really.

 

[scaesare]

No I would say ignoring charging efficiency and vampire drain is even more misleading to the casual driver than what you're asserting. Long range trip pushing the limits of the pack is still a rare thing. A driver in the course of a normal week will come up against these two repeatedly, while almost never coming up into a absolute range issue. If the mean commute distance is 14 miles, and you're losing 50-100% of that in vampire drain, WTF, really.

OK this is clogging up the investor thread, so my last on this:

You want to make the point that charger efficiency energy loss is a thing, and that is has some financial impact (or whatever). Fine make that point.

Just don't assert that those losses change the absolute range you are going to get once you unplug and are out on the road (see @mongo 's post in addition to mine). That assertion is incorrect and misleading.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming,

 

[Intl Professor]

People seen this?

Elon Musk's Brain is not like yours

I post here because it provides IMO one of the most compelling and unsettling arguments for why we can't count on Tesla ever making money (unfortunately: I'm long). Read to the end to get that point.

Thanks for the info. I cheated by skipping to the end. His assumption about dividends may or may not be relevant to a growth stock. One can think of dividends and stock buy-back, as bribes to investors for buying the stock. Best to invest in the future.

 

[AWDtsla]

OK this is clogging up the investor thread, so my last on this:

You want to make the point that efficiency loss is a thing, and that is has some financial impact (or whatever). Fine make that point.

Just don't assert that those losses change the absolute range you are going to get once you unplug and are out on the road (see @mongo 's post in addition to mine). That assertion is incorrect and misleading.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming,

My original point was these things aren't addressed because Tesla has no real competition, which is relevant to the investor discussion.

 

[AWDtsla]

Thanks for the info. I cheated by skipping to the end. His assumption about dividends may or may not be relevant to a growth stock. One can think of dividends and stock buy-back, as bribes to investors for buying the stock. Best to invest in the future.

Dividends, stock buybacks, return of capital are all about what happens when a company runs out of ideas. It is not about profit.

 

[ggr]

Here she is

Josipa Petrunic

 

[Intl Professor]

I view Elon as very smart, very passionate, and absolutely normal for a smart and passionate person.

When he sips some whiskey - normal
When he occasionally replies back forcefully on twitter (and then realizes it was mistake) - normal
When he tries a puff of a weird looking tobacco and pot thing and then hands it back - normal
When he likes spinal tap and spaceballs - normal
When he is awkward in public - normal
When he works day and night to solve a problem - normal
When he gets really tired after the crunch - normal
When he is honest about his feelings - normal
When he likes to talk about and get excited about big ideas - normal

The biggest thing that freaks people out I think, is that he isn't the usual salesman CEO, always spinning, always selling, always hedging...

He's very upfront about everything - because it is more interesting that way.

He's got plenty of people running the nuts and bolts of the company.

But Tesla will be successful for exactly this one thing:

If you are smart and passionate, you don't want to work for a full of it spinning hedging salesman CEO,
you want to work your ass off for someone smart and passionate and direct and yes normal like Elon.

Unlike a salesman, Musk doesn't waste brainpower thinking about the con. Clear focus on what is rather than what you want people to think of you is strenuous. I have pity for Trump, for example. Focus on self is so exhausting of talent and time. Time is energy.

Edit: Perhaps for some in this "con" persuasion there is no there, there (courtesy Gertrude Stein). Keeping up appearances is like clearing a smoke filled room with your hands alone. Or, like trying to fly after jumping out a skyscraper window.

 

[Mike Smith]

Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit

 

[Off Shore]

I don't think so.
It was a young and smart (and cute) lady that was interviewed on TV about Tesla, and I was impressed by her knowledge and bullishness. It was more than a year ago, so impossible to retrieve in this mess ;-)

I believe you may be thinking of Josipa Petrunic @JosipaPetrunic ‏"Executive Director and C.E.O. of Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium (CUTRIC)." I follow her on Twitter and she seldom posts.

 

[bhtooefr]

So, here's where electrical efficiency has impact on range:

Efficiency of converting stored chemical energy in the battery into electricity
Efficiency of inverting electricity supply from the battery to the motor(s)
Efficiency of the motor(s) in converting electricity into work
Efficiency of the motor(s) in converting work into electricity (small impact, this is just regen)
Efficiency of rectifying electricity from the motor(s) to the battery (again, this is just regen)
Efficiency of converting electricity into stored chemical energy in the battery during regen

Here's where electrical efficiency does NOT have impact on range:

Efficiency of rectifying electricity from the grid to the battery
Efficiency of converting electricity into stored chemical energy in the battery during charging (however, if the battery's efficient at charging, it's probably more efficient at discharging too)

Once you're to 100% charge, you're to 100% charge, that's it.

Now, as current limits are often the issue, improving those last two things will allow reaching 100% charge more quickly. That doesn't affect range once you're off the charger, though. It does affect time until you come off the charger, it affects cost of charging, and it affects EPA efficiency ratings (as they're measured including charging losses), but it doesn't affect actual range. This is why NiMH EVs beat lead acid EVs in range despite hideous EPA efficiency figures - the top 20% of a NiMH cell is incredibly inefficient to charge, but once it's charged, the energy's in there, and you've got more range.

 

[shootformoon]

Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit

It seems semi will go to mass production earlier than Y. Could anyone point out why tsla takes this route? iirc Y would have higher margin than semi?

 

[mikegre]

Aside from being a very dumb idea how does Tesla acquire Ford or GM?

They don't have cash. GM has a market cap of $56B and Ford $43B.

Does Tesla take on massive debt at 8% to make a cash/stock offer?

Do they wait until they can raise the massive cash pile at say 5%?

If it is an all stock offer then it is really a merger not an acquisition then.

Now we have ICE investors who want to see quarterly dividends.

If Ford not only do we have Musk Family Trust as major stockholders but the Ford Family Trust as well.

Why would Tesla even consider buying any of those old, outmoded car companies in the first place?

 

[MP3Mike]

It seems semi will go to mass production earlier than Y. Could anyone point out why tsla takes this route? iirc Y would have higher margin than semi?

It is further along in the design and testing phases and will probably be easier to build the Semi... Lower volume therefore less need for lots of automation.

 

[RubberToe]

Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit

Grohmann Engineering will help module production become three times faster, and three times cheaper, according to Viecha. Their new system will be sent to the Gigafactory by the end of Q3 or beginning of Q4. The Grohmann machine will be in Zones 1, 2, 3, and Tesla will be receiving three machines. The process was designed to alleviate the previous bottleneck in module production which delayed Model 3 production significantly. The machine is already built, and points to the advantage Tesla will have in building future Gigafactories. They have learned many painful lessons, but have a solid blueprint for porting the factory across the world.

Always something to look forward to as Tesla keeps hammering down the cost of every single component before unleashing the results on the world...

RT

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Behind the Scenes at Tesla’s Gigafactory: Field Notes From Our Recent Visit

Points I find interesting from this:

-Tesla will likely start producing the shorter-range Model 3 in the next eight months. Right now, they are focused on selling higher-margin cars where demand continues to exceed what is being produced.

That seems about 3-4 months later than I was expecting.

- Grohmann Engineering will help module production become three times faster, and three times cheaper, according to Viecha. Their new system will be sent to the Gigafactory by the end of Q3 or beginning of Q4.

Sounds like they are getting a 2nd package from Grohmann that will be improvement on the first which is exciting.

-According to Tesla, by next year they will start exporting Model 3s to other countries. They will also begin to earnestly produce Semis by 2020.

I’m really curious where they decide to produce the Semi, seems like we are getting pretty close to production time (still think second half 2020) and they haven’t even announced any plans for the production line.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Points I find interesting from this:

-Tesla will likely start producing the shorter-range Model 3 in the next eight months. Right now, they are focused on selling higher-margin cars where demand continues to exceed what is being produced.

That seems about 3-4 months later than I was expecting.

"in the next 8 months" means no later than, not no earlier than. They could start producing them next week and the statement would have been accurate, if misleading. So basically no change on current timelines on the website, just a vague confirmation of them.

 

[avoigt]

It seems semi will go to mass production earlier than Y. Could anyone point out why tsla takes this route? iirc Y would have higher margin than semi?

The semi is since a longer time revealed and since involved in test drives. Also main elements for the Semi are from the 3 so there is less new elements that may cause it to create issues. Finally many reservations are done and customers are reviewing and committing. Production will be in lower numbers so higher likelihood that reservations are not going too crazy like with the 3.

The Y is not yet revealed and still in the design phase. After thats finished and the reveal is planned for March maybe later they will do last changes and tests. The reveal of the Y will likely create a large wave of reservations. Tesla will try to be better prepared at that point to be able to produce the car in masses to avoid a situation where they are punished again for not be able to deliver the Y. For that they need a GF where they can produce it. Having said that I expect the reveal to be postponed.

 

[bhtooefr]

Ben on Teslanomics has some great data on Model 3 efficiency - 88% versus the Model S at 72%. If this is correct - another game changer as the competition will all be trying to match the S.

22 mins in.

OK, so I finally watched this.

Here's the TezLab definition of "efficiency":

WHAT DOES 'EFFICIENCY' MEAN?
Efficiency is our measure of how your car is performing against how the car is rated to perform. For example, let's say you have 100 miles left in your battery, if you drive 100 miles and your car battery reads 0, you've driven 100%.

Like combustion engines, there's a lot of variability in efficiency, mainly related to weather and elevation. We created a fun leaderboard so you can see how the entire Tesla fleet is doing and also your friends.

With some practice, you’ll learn how to become a very efficient driver.

So, this isn't directly powertrain efficiency, this is how the car performs real-world versus how it performs on the range estimate? What's not entirely clear is if this is based on what the car guessed (which means Tesla's getting better at guessing range) or the EPA test (which means the Model 3 gets closer to its EPA range than the S and X - which, considering all the derated RWD cars...)